Kurdish Policy Analysis

US Withdrawal From Iraq Gains Momentum as analysts argue ISIS no longer justifies American presence

As the September 2026 withdrawal deadline approaches, a growing debate in Washington suggests the U.S. military mission in Iraq should end, with only limited counterterrorism cooperation maintained to support Iraqi special forces.

With the United States preparing to complete its military withdrawal from Iraq by September 30, 2026, a growing number of defense analysts argue that the original justification for maintaining American forces has largely disappeared.

Responding to discussions surrounding the future of the U.S. mission, one security commentator argued that while they are "hardly an anti-war voice," Washington could safely end the Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) without significantly increasing regional security risks.

Instead of maintaining thousands of personnel, the analyst suggested a far smaller footprint centered on quietly deploying military trainers to rebuild the capabilities of Iraq's elite Counter Terrorism Service (CTS). The proposal envisions CTS taking primary responsibility for targeting residual ISIS cells and containing armed militias, eliminating the need for a permanent large-scale U.S. deployment.

The comments echo a broader argument made by defense analyst Rosemary Kelanic, who noted that the U.S. troop withdrawal follows the bilateral drawdown agreement reached between Baghdad and Washington in 2024.

Kelanic has consistently argued that the threat posed by the Islamic State no longer justifies an indefinite American military presence in Iraq.

"The United States is set to leave Iraq by September 30, 2026," she wrote, adding that ISIS "was no reason to stay" when the agreement was reached and "still aren't."

A Shift in U.S. Strategy

The debate reflects a broader transformation in U.S. Middle East policy.

Rather than conducting large counterinsurgency missions, Washington increasingly favors lighter security partnerships based on intelligence sharing, military training, special operations cooperation and precision counterterrorism capabilities.

Supporters argue that Iraq's security institutions have matured considerably since the height of the ISIS conflict, particularly the Counter Terrorism Service, which remains one of the country's most capable military organizations.

Regional Implications

The withdrawal could reshape Iraq's security landscape.

While Iraqi security forces have significantly weakened ISIS, armed groups aligned with Iran continue to exert substantial political and military influence across the country. Some analysts believe strengthening Iraqi elite forces may provide Baghdad with greater capacity to balance competing security challenges without relying heavily on foreign troops.

Others caution that a complete U.S. withdrawal could reduce intelligence capabilities, air support and logistical assistance that Iraqi forces still value in complex counterterrorism operations.

Geopolitical Significance

The end of the U.S. military mission would mark another milestone in Washington's gradual reduction of its military footprint across the Middle East after more than two decades of continuous operations.

Whether Iraq can independently maintain security while managing both ISIS remnants and powerful militia networks will likely become one of the region's most closely watched strategic tests.

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