Iran’s economy: from resilience to depletion

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  By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis     For decades, Iran has demonstrated a remarkable ability to survive sanctions, isolation and economic pressure. Its economy developed sophisticated mechanisms for circumventing restrictions, sustaining trade through informal networks and absorbing repeated external shocks. But the current crisis may represent a fundamental change. Iran is increasingly moving from an “economy of resilience” to an “economy of depletion”—one in which the state can still keep the economy functioning, but only by consuming the financial, industrial and household buffers that made previous adaptation possible. The distinction is critical. Resilience means absorbing a shock and recovering. Depletion means surviving the shock by consuming the resources needed for future recovery. The End of Easy Adaptation According to an article published by the Economist even before the bombs fell and the recent war Iran's economy was in a bad way. Iran’s sa...

Iran Warns US: “Era of Imposing Security Across Seas Is Over,” Signals Response to Maritime Pressure (2026)

Top adviser to Supreme Leader issues warning over Strait of Hormuz tensions as fragile ceasefire talks stall in Islamabad.

An adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader warns the US that “the era of imposing security across the seas is over,” amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled ceasefire talks in Islamabad.

Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, Sulaimani, Iraq, 19 April, Kurdish Policy Analysis -- A senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a stark warning to the United States, declaring that “the era of imposing security across the seas is over” and threatening responses to what Tehran describes as escalating maritime pressure.

Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser on international affairs to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati, said any “chaos” in regional waters would be met with a series of Iranian responses, in comments widely interpreted as directed at US sanctions and naval pressure.

“The era of imposing security across the seas is over,” Velayati said, adding that any escalation would trigger consequences from Tehran.

Strait of Hormuz becomes flashpoint

The warning comes amid heightened tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily.

Strait of Hormuz has increasingly become a focal point in the confrontation between Tehran and Washington, as sanctions pressure and maritime security operations intensify.

Iran has argued that US measures amount to a de facto maritime blockade, severely constraining its oil exports and pushing revenues close to zero.

Fragile ceasefire under strain

The latest escalation follows a short-lived ceasefire agreement reached on April 8 between the United States and Iran, followed by diplomatic talks in Islamabad that failed to produce a lasting settlement.

Iran and US representatives have since continued indirect engagement, but no breakthrough has been achieved, raising concerns that tensions could quickly spiral back into open confrontation.

Oil markets react to instability fears

The growing risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has also rattled energy markets, with analysts reporting sharp upward pressure on global oil prices amid fears of supply shocks.

Some estimates cited in regional reporting suggest prices have surged above $120 per barrel, reflecting heightened uncertainty over maritime security and potential escalation.

#Iran #US #StraitOfHormuz #Geopolitics #Oil #MiddleEast #BreakingNews

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