Inside the Shiite Coordination Framework’s final negotiations, Sudani emerges as the strongest candidate amid U.S. pressure, internal divisions, and a looming constitutional deadline.

Iraq’s Shiite Coordination Framework is leaning toward nominating Mohammed Shia al-Sudani for a second term as prime minister, while Nouri al-Maliki faces growing rejection and U.S. opposition ahead of a decisive Wednesday meeting.

Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj. Sulaimani, Kurdistan Region — Iraq’s political landscape is shifting rapidly toward a potential second term for incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as the country’s most powerful Shiite alliance edges closer to resolving a prolonged post-election deadlock, according to informed political sources.

A senior figure within the Shiite Coordination Framework — the ruling Shiite alliance that effectively determines Iraq’s next government — said internal momentum is increasingly favoring Sudani’s renomination, though final consensus is expected only after a decisive meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

The development comes days after Iraq’s parliament elected Nizar Amidi as President of the Republic, ending months of political paralysis following the November elections. Under Iraq’s constitution, the new president must task the largest parliamentary bloc — the Coordination Framework — with nominating a prime minister within 15 days.

Maliki’s bid under pressure

The internal negotiations have been complicated by the political ambitions of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose push for a third term has triggered resistance both domestically and internationally.

According to officials within the alliance, Maliki’s nomination has become increasingly difficult due to opposition from within the Coordination Framework itself, as well as reservations from Sunni and Kurdish political actors.

A senior Framework official told Alhurra that Maliki has not formally withdrawn, but has “become convinced that securing parliamentary approval is extremely difficult,” particularly in light of strong U.S. opposition.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump previously warned that Washington could withhold support from Iraq if Maliki returned to power, a statement that continues to shape political calculations in Baghdad.

Wednesday meeting seen as decisive

Salam al-Zubaidi, spokesperson for the Annasir Coalition within the Coordination Framework, confirmed that a previously scheduled Monday meeting was postponed to Wednesday at Maliki’s request, in order to expand consultations and attempt to reach a consensus candidate.

Al-Zubaidi said there is now “near agreement” among coalition forces that the issue will be settled in the upcoming meeting, with a final candidate expected to be announced before the constitutional deadline expires next week.

Sudani’s advantage grows

Within the Coordination Framework, Sudani is increasingly viewed as the leading contender due to his parliamentary strength and political stability. His coalition secured 51 seats in the 2025 elections, giving him a significant negotiating advantage over rivals.

His main competitor remains former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who is considered a secondary but still viable option, though sources acknowledge his chances are weaker than Sudani’s.

Other alternatives reportedly include reverting to a previously vetted list of nine candidates — excluding both Sudani and Maliki — or selecting a compromise figure outside the list. However, officials describe these scenarios as unlikely.

A fragile political balance

The Coordination Framework initially struggled to unify behind a single nominee, particularly after Sudani’s coalition emerged as the largest within the Shiite bloc. At one point, internal divisions led to Maliki’s nomination as a compromise candidate, further deepening tensions.

Sudani himself had previously withdrawn from contention in favor of Maliki, a move that unexpectedly intensified the deadlock and exposed deep fractures within the alliance.

The political uncertainty has delayed key constitutional steps, including the formal sequencing of electing the president and appointing the prime minister — a process that has increasingly become a negotiated package deal among Iraq’s main political forces.

U.S. pressure and regional implications

External pressure has also played a decisive role. Washington’s opposition to Maliki has been repeatedly communicated to Iraqi officials, with warnings that sanctions or reduced cooperation could follow his return.

These warnings have strengthened Sudani’s position as a compromise candidate acceptable to both domestic power brokers and international stakeholders.

What happens next

If consensus is reached on Wednesday, Sudani could be formally tasked with forming a new government within days, ending one of Iraq’s shortest but most tense post-election stalemates in recent years.

However, analysts caution that even if Sudani is renominated, the process of forming a cabinet will still require delicate balancing among Iraq’s competing sectarian and political factions.

For now, all eyes are on the Coordination Framework’s decisive meeting — where Iraq’s next political chapter may be effectively sealed.

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