Kurdish Policy Analysis

Kurdish Policy Analysis / SULAIMANI, IRAQ-- As Iraq’s post-election negotiations intensify, a U.S. policy paper signals direct opposition to Basim al-Badri’s potential rise—deepening fears of an emerging confrontation over who ultimately controls Baghdad’s next government.

A Middle East Forum analysis suggests Donald Trump is likely to oppose Basim al-Badri as Iraq’s next prime minister, signaling a potential escalation in U.S. efforts to shape Baghdad’s post-election government amid rising Iranian influence.

— A new policy assessment from the Middle East Forum argues that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to oppose Basim al-Badri’s emergence as Iraq’s next prime minister, signaling a possible escalation in Washington’s effort to shape Baghdad’s fragile post-election power settlement.

The analysis comes amid a broader pattern of increasingly direct U.S. intervention in Iraq’s government formation process, where competing Shiite blocs and Iran-aligned factions continue to dominate coalition negotiations following the 2025 elections.

According to the report, Trump’s position reflects a hardening U.S. stance against Iraqi political figures perceived as aligned with Tehran or embedded within Iran-backed militia networks. The assessment suggests that al-Badri’s candidacy could trigger diplomatic pressure similar to previous U.S. interventions targeting rival contenders in Baghdad’s premiership race.

The warning follows a series of recent escalatory signals from Washington, including explicit threats to withdraw support from Iraq if Iran-aligned figures consolidate executive power. Earlier reporting indicated that U.S. officials have already signaled opposition to other senior Iraqi political figures under consideration for the premiership, framing the process as a strategic contest over Iraq’s alignment in the U.S.–Iran regional rivalry.

Iraqi political blocs, meanwhile, remain deeply fragmented, with no clear consensus candidate emerging. Negotiations are unfolding under heavy external pressure, as both Washington and Tehran attempt to shape the outcome of Iraq’s next government.

Analysts say the situation reflects a renewed phase of geopolitical competition in Iraq, where domestic coalition-building is increasingly inseparable from regional power struggles. The potential U.S. opposition to al-Badri underscores how the premiership race has become a proxy battleground for influence between Washington and Tehran.

If confirmed in practice, such a stance could further complicate Iraq’s already delayed government formation process, raising the risk of prolonged political deadlock or parallel authority struggles within Baghdad’s institutions.

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