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A wounded Iran is not a defeated Iran: the Interim agreement between US and Iran


By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj

Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan, Kurdish Policy Analysis — 4 June 2026

The US and Israeli attacks against Iran were aimed at undermining the dignity of the Islamic Republic, but instead, both sides are moving towards an interim agreement; An agreement in which Iran remains a body full of wounds, but not broken.

Iran appears to be coming out of this war with a collapsed economy and a damaged military infrastructure, but the Revolutionary Guards' hegemony and power are more established than ever.

Diplomats, officials and political analysts believe that even if a memorandum of understanding is signed in the near future, it will not lead to fundamental and permanent changes, but only as a temporary ceasefire.

Compromise for time: Hormuz and economic pressures

Experts predict that the outcome will be a deal aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz. 

Reduce pressure on global economic markets and Iran. and finding a political outlet for Donald Trump, while complicated cases are postponed.

"There have been extraordinary tactical military victories, but no fundamental strategic gains have been made and no cases have been closed," said Dennis Ross, a former senior US diplomat. 

a narrow range to form

After the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, Trump spoke of goals such as "eliminating Iran's immediate threats," especially its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and encouraged the Iranians to take control of their country.

But according to the memo, which Reuters has obtained from informed sources, Iran will end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (the world's oil artery) in exchange for financial assistance by releasing blocked funds or limited sanctions.

Iranian officials see the limited agreement as an opportunity to buy time, provide finance and control growing domestic risks (caused by the poor economic situation) without having to deal with the most sensitive and complex issues.

Meanwhile, Trump, who is eyeing midterm elections in November, needs an agreement that can be presented as an achievement on Iran's nuclear program, especially on high-enriched uranium.

The basic causes of war remain the same

The crux of the problem remains unresolved; Iran will not give up uranium enrichment, Washington is unwilling to give Tehran security guarantees, and Israel insists on blockading an enemy it sees as a substantial threat. In contrast, Iran believes that maintaining its missile arsenal, network of allies in the region and the ability to disrupt energy exports in the Gulf are the only way to prevent any future attack.

"What Trump needs politically and what Iran is willing to offer may be close, but the range of real agreement is very narrow," said Alan Air, a former US diplomat and Iranian expert.

A short-term ceasefire

Two informed regional sources said Trump would eventually agree to a short-term ceasefire and a vague promise on enriched uranium, while the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control.

Analysts say Washington is no longer as insistent on dismantling Iran's ballistic missiles, despite concerns from Israel and the Gulf states.

Sources say there are many obstacles along the way, including:

1. Iran's demand to link any agreement to a halt to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

2. Trump's pressure on Israel to stop attacks on Beirut and the southern region, for fear that tensions could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz agreement.

3. Iran's insistence on the immediate release of the blocked $12 billion as a key condition.

This puts Trump at risk of comparing his deal to Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear deal, which he withdrew from in

Strengthening the position of the Revolutionary Guards

Analysts say any ceasefire in the conflict would strengthen the position of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. "They used to be a behind-the-scenes force, but now they're the force that directly controls the country's affairs," said David Schinker of the Washington Institute.

The interim agreement is causing concern in Israel, especially as Iranian leaders describe the war as an absolute ideological conflict and believe no agreement can solve the problem at the root.

"For Israel and Iran, this part of the war may be over, but the conflict is still going on," Ross said.

#Iran #UnitedStates #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #IranIsraelWar #NuclearDiplomacy #Tehran #Washington #RevolutionaryGuards #MiddleEastSecurity #ForeignPolicy #StrategicAffairs #KurdishPolicyAnalysis #IranPolitics #RegionalStability

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