By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj

Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan — Kurdish Policy Analysis

As American warplanes strike Iran again and Tehran threatens the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is rapidly evolving beyond a regional confrontation into a global economic and geopolitical crisis with consequences for energy markets, Iraq, Israel, and the future balance of power in the Middle East.

The U.S. military said Wednesday it began another round of strikes against Iran after President Donald Trump warned that Tehran would "pay the price" for stalled negotiations. The escalating attacks threatened to derail efforts to end the war.

U.S. Central Command said in a social media post that the military was striking "multiple targets in Iran," attacks that were "in response to Iran's unwarranted and continued aggression."

The second day of American strikes came hours after Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan — all of which host U.S. troops — came under Iranian fire. It was the third time this week that back-and-forth strikes have tested a two-month ceasefire. They also came a day after the U.S. struck Iran following the crash of an Army helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz that Trump blamed on the Islamic Republic.

Trump has urged Iran to sign a deal to end the war and suggested earlier this week that an agreement could be reached in a matter of days.

Iranian media reported that explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Minab in the south of the country.

Iran has proved resilient despite weeks of heavy bombing. It is betting that its ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial passageway for oil and natural gas — gives it a strong bargaining chip.

Iran's United Nations envoy said the U.S. should refrain from threats of force if it wants a deal.

"Iran has never negotiated under threats and pressure and will never submit to pressure or question," Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday.

Still, both countries seem to be looking for a way to end the conflict — if they can manage to sell it as a win at home.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears intent on pursuing goals that make compromise harder: the collapse of Iran's theocratic government, the elimination of its nuclear program, and the destruction of the Iranian-allied Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. On Monday, Iran and Israel targeted each other.

Trump says US is sneaking oil past the Strait of Hormuz

Since the U.S. and Israel started the war with Feb. 28 attacks on Iran, the conflict has shaken the global economy, driven up energy prices worldwide, and made food and other basics more expensive.

The international benchmark for crude oil traded above $93 a barrel on Wednesday, up more than 25% since the start of the war.

Trump said Wednesday the U.S. military has since last month undertaken a "secret mission" to sneak oil shipments past Iran's forces in the Strait of Hormuz. He said ships were slipping through at night, aided by the destruction of Iranian radar equipment.

Trump said as a result more than 100 million barrels of oil have evaded Iran's chokehold on the strait. There was no immediate confirmation of that figure, which roughly equals five days of oil shipments through the waterway before the war began.

The military's role was not immediately clear. Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesman, said U.S. forces "communicate and coordinate" with commercial ships in the area, but gave no details on military support being offered.

US and Iranian strikes shake the Mideast

Earlier Wednesday, the U.S. military said an American aircraft fired "precision munitions" into the engine room of the Palau-flagged vessel M/T Settebello as it attempted to breach the naval blockade with a shipment of Iranian oil. It was the eighth merchant vessel disabled by U.S. forces in waters off Iran.

India's foreign ministry said three Indian sailors were missing after the Settebello was struck, while 21 others were rescued. Its statement did not mention the U.S. military or the blockade.

Hawkins of U.S. Central Command said American forces warned the crew before firing on the ship.

The U.S. military said strikes earlier Wednesday targeted "air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites."

Iran said U.S. strikes hit two water reservoirs in the southern city of Sirik, temporarily cutting off water to thousands of people. U.S. Central Command had no immediate comment.

Tehran later claimed attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Jordan said it shot down five incoming missiles, which Iran said targeted an air base hosting American military aircraft.

Bahrain and Kuwait said they intercepted incoming fire.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the American attacks as a violation of Iranian sovereignty. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said in televised comments that, following the new attacks, Iran would review its stance on negotiations to end the war.

Efforts to mediate a deal continued. Following consultations with the U.S., a delegation from Qatar arrived in Tehran for talks on Wednesday, according to an official with knowledge of the visit who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.

The exchanges of fire came a day after a U.S. Army attack helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. The helicopter collided with an Iranian drone, according to a U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation. It wasn't clear whether the collision was intentional.

A drone boat rescued the helicopter's two crew. Trump said they were uninjured.

Big disagreements stand in the way of a quick peace deal

Wary of high gas prices in the run-up to congressional elections in November, Trump seems to be looking for a quick win. But he is also making demands that will be tough for Iran to swallow.

The U.S. wants to see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. While Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, that uranium is a short technical step from weapons-grade levels.

Iran is refusing to give up the uranium and demanding relief from sanctions. It also wants the release of frozen assets even before a final agreement is in place, something Trump rejected.

It's not clear how those differences can be bridged. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump said Iran was taking "too long to negotiate a deal" and "now they will have to pay the price!!!"

Iran has insisted that any deal to end the war must also end fighting between its ally Hezbollah and Israel. Israel has instead intensified its military campaign against the Lebanon-based militant group.

An airstrike on a village east of Tyre killed at least six people, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported. It said two others were killed by an Israeli drone strike on a car in the southern city of Sidon.

Trump's New Iran Strikes Could Trigger the Most Dangerous Middle East Crisis Since 2003

The United States has launched another round of strikes against Iran, escalating a conflict that increasingly resembles a dangerous game of strategic chicken between Washington and Tehran.

Officially, both sides claim they want negotiations.

In practice, both sides continue to exchange military blows.

The contradiction reveals a deeper reality: neither Washington nor Tehran wants a full-scale war, yet neither side is willing to appear weak enough to compromise.

The result is a conflict that risks expanding far beyond the Persian Gulf.

The latest U.S. attacks came after President Donald Trump warned that Iran would "pay the price" for what he described as delays in negotiations. U.S. Central Command announced strikes against multiple targets inside Iran, describing them as retaliation for continued Iranian aggression.

The attacks followed Iranian missile launches against Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, all key American security partners hosting U.S. military installations.

For the third time in a single week, the fragile ceasefire that had temporarily reduced tensions appears to be collapsing.

The significance extends far beyond military exchanges.

The world is witnessing a contest over energy security, maritime trade, regional influence, and ultimately the future architecture of the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz Has Become the Center of Gravity

The most important battlefield in this war may not be located in Iran, Israel, Iraq, or Lebanon.

It is the narrow stretch of water connecting the Persian Gulf to the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most important energy chokepoint.

Roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil normally passes through it.

For decades, Iranian strategists have viewed the strait as their ultimate deterrent.

Tehran understands a simple reality.

The United States possesses overwhelming military superiority.

Iran's comparative advantage lies elsewhere.

Its ability to disrupt global energy markets gives Tehran leverage disproportionate to its military power.

The latest statements from Iranian officials suggest they continue to view Hormuz as their strongest bargaining chip.

Iran's resilience under weeks of bombing reinforces this calculation.

As long as Tehran can threaten global energy flows, it remains strategically relevant regardless of battlefield losses.

Trump's Secret Oil War

Perhaps the most remarkable revelation from the latest developments is President Trump's claim that the United States has been conducting a secret operation to bypass Iran's pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Trump, American forces have been quietly helping oil shipments pass through the strait under cover of darkness after Iranian surveillance systems were degraded.

If accurate, this operation carries profound implications.

For decades, analysts assumed that closing Hormuz would trigger an immediate global economic shock.

Washington now appears determined to demonstrate the opposite.

The United States is effectively attempting to prove that the global economy can continue functioning despite Iranian pressure.

This is not simply a military operation.

It is a strategic effort to destroy one of Tehran's most valuable geopolitical assets.

The message is clear:

If Iran cannot stop energy flows, then its ability to use Hormuz as a bargaining chip diminishes significantly.

Why Iran Is Not Backing Down

Many observers continue to underestimate Iran's strategic mindset.

From Tehran's perspective, survival itself constitutes victory.

The Iranian leadership does not need to defeat the United States militarily.

It merely needs to avoid collapse.

History has reinforced this belief.

Iran survived:

• The Iran-Iraq War.
• Decades of sanctions.
• Assassinations of senior officials.
• Economic isolation.
• Cyber warfare campaigns.
• Repeated military pressure.

The regime's leadership believes endurance favors Tehran.

This explains why Iranian officials continue rejecting negotiations conducted under military pressure.

Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani's remarks at the United Nations reflected this position clearly.

Negotiating while under attack would be politically unacceptable domestically.

The leadership fears appearing weak more than it fears economic pain.

Netanyahu's Expanding War Aims

A second obstacle to peace lies in Israel's evolving objectives.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu increasingly appears committed to goals extending beyond a ceasefire.

Israeli strategy now seems focused on three interconnected objectives:

1. Destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities.
2. Weakening or removing the Iranian regime.
3. Severing Tehran's regional network of proxies.

These objectives create a fundamental problem.

Even if Washington and Tehran reach a compromise, Israel may continue pursuing military operations.

The result is a conflict with multiple decision-making centers and multiple endgames.

Historically, wars become far more difficult to terminate when participants pursue different objectives.

That pattern is becoming increasingly visible across the region.

The Global Economy Is Already Paying the Price

The economic consequences are becoming impossible to ignore.

Oil prices have surged above $93 per barrel.

Shipping insurance premiums have increased dramatically.

Transportation costs continue rising.

Supply chains are becoming more fragile.

Food prices are beginning to climb across multiple regions.

The consequences extend well beyond the Middle East.

Europe faces higher energy costs.

Asian importers face supply uncertainty.

Developing countries face inflationary pressure.

The conflict is increasingly becoming a global economic event rather than a regional military confrontation.

Iraq: The Country Most at Risk

No country may be more vulnerable than Iraq.

Baghdad finds itself trapped between its two most important security and economic partners.

The United States remains critical to Iraq's security architecture.

Iran remains deeply embedded in Iraq's political and economic systems.

A prolonged confrontation places Iraqi leaders in an impossible position.

Several risks are emerging simultaneously:

Security Risks

Iranian-backed militias may intensify attacks on American interests.

Economic Risks

Oil market volatility creates uncertainty for budget planning.

Political Risks

Internal divisions may widen between factions aligned with Washington and Tehran.

Social Risks

Inflation and economic disruption could fuel public dissatisfaction.

For Iraq, the greatest danger is not choosing sides.

It is becoming the battlefield where others settle their disputes.

What It Means for the Kurdistan Region

The Kurdistan Region faces a unique strategic challenge.

Geographically, it sits close to many of the conflict's potential flashpoints.

Economically, it depends heavily on regional stability.

Politically, it maintains important relationships with both Washington and regional actors.

Several outcomes are possible.

The conflict could increase the strategic importance of the Kurdistan Region as a relatively stable logistical hub.

Alternatively, escalation could disrupt trade routes and investment flows.

The KRG therefore has a strong interest in rapid de-escalation.

The longer the war continues, the greater the economic and security risks become.

The Hezbollah Factor

Another major obstacle to peace involves Hezbollah.

Iran has linked broader negotiations to developments involving its Lebanese ally.

Israel, meanwhile, has intensified military operations against Hezbollah targets.

This creates a dangerous linkage.

Even if Washington and Tehran resolve their bilateral disputes, fighting involving Hezbollah could continue.

The war therefore risks evolving into a multi-front regional confrontation stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.

Such conflicts are historically difficult to control.

The Negotiation Paradox

The most fascinating aspect of the current crisis is that both sides appear to want negotiations.

Yet both sides continue escalating.

This is not irrational.

It reflects a classic bargaining strategy.

Each side hopes military pressure will improve its negotiating position.

Washington believes strikes can force Iranian concessions.

Tehran believes resilience can force American compromise.

The problem is that such strategies often contain a fatal flaw.

Escalation intended to strengthen negotiations can instead destroy the political space necessary for compromise.

History is full of wars that became larger because leaders expected coercion to produce diplomacy.

Three Possible Futures

Scenario One: Managed Settlement

The most optimistic outcome involves a negotiated agreement.

Iran accepts limits on uranium enrichment.

The United States offers sanctions relief.

Regional tensions gradually decline.

Probability: Moderate.

Scenario Two: Long War of Attrition

The most likely outcome may be a prolonged period of intermittent strikes, economic warfare, and proxy conflict.

Neither side achieves decisive victory.

Neither side fully compromises.

The region remains unstable for years.

Probability: High.

Scenario Three: Regional Explosion

The most dangerous scenario involves miscalculation.

A major attack causes mass casualties.

Hormuz closes completely.

Israel launches deeper strikes.

Iran expands retaliation.

The conflict becomes a regional war.

Probability: Lower but rising.

The Bigger Geopolitical Meaning

The most important lesson from this crisis may be that the Middle East is entering a new strategic era.

The assumptions that governed regional politics for decades are weakening.

American military superiority remains overwhelming.

Yet Iran continues demonstrating resilience.

Israel remains powerful.

Yet it struggles to achieve decisive political outcomes.

Oil remains crucial.

Yet the world is gradually adapting to energy disruptions.

The region's future will not be determined solely by military power.

It will be determined by which actors can best navigate a world of economic uncertainty, technological change, and shifting alliances.

The latest U.S. strikes therefore represent more than another chapter in the U.S.-Iran confrontation.

They may be the opening stages of a broader struggle over who shapes the next Middle East.

And unlike previous wars, the consequences will extend far beyond the region itself.

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