Cairo and Ankara drones; Why is Israel afraid of Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement?

"Supporting regional stability" was the main theme of the official discourse between Cairo and Ankara during the Egyptian Defense Minister's visit to Turkey. The visit, which led to the signing of a memorandum of understanding to deepen military cooperation, goes beyond bilateral relations and will have a direct impact on the map of the balance of power in the Middle East.

Restoration of communications

Brigadier General Ashraf Zahir's visit to Ankara was the first by an Egyptian defense minister to Turkey since The move is seen as the culmination of a three-year reconciliation process between the two countries that followed a decade of separation.

The most important recent approaches:

February 2024: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Cairo and signs a preliminary agreement. 

June 2024: Turkish Army Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Selçuk Bayrakdaroglu visits Egypt. 

September 2024: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visits Ankara and lays the foundation stone for defense industrial cooperation.

regional motives and common interests

According to Karam Saeed, a researcher on Turkish affairs at the Pyramid Center, this rapprochement has been influenced by several regional changes, most notably:

1. security risks and national security 

Rising tensions and the ongoing Israeli war in the Gaza Strip. 

Israeli efforts to expand its hegemony in southern Syria and southern Lebanon. 

Shared concern about the possibility of major strategic changes in the region.

2. African and Red Sea conflicts 

The Renaissance Dam Case: Israeli Moves to Support Ethiopia’s Position. 

Sudanese crisis: External support for "rapid support" forces, which requires coordination between Cairo and Ankara to protect Sudanese sovereignty.

3. The balance of power in the Mediterranean 

Through this new diverse alliance, Turkey wants to counter the trilateral cooperation (Israel-Cyprus-Greece) on energy issues.

Defense Sector and Technology: Drones as Strategic Materials

The defense industry is a major driver of this convergence. Turkey, whose annual military exports reach $6 billion, sees Egypt as a golden gateway to North African markets.

Joint projects in the defense industry

August 2025: Memorandum of understanding is signed for joint production of drones at the Qadir factory in Egypt.

March 2025: Agreement on the production of unmanned ground vehicles with Turkish technical support.

The benefits of this cooperation for both sides 

For Egypt: Diversification of arming sources, transfer of advanced Turkish drone technology to protect its crisis borders with Sudan, Libya and Ethiopia.

For Turkey: Reduce production costs and find an alternative hub (Egypt) to circumvent the military restrictions imposed by the United States.

Israeli anxiety and intense surveillance

The military rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara is closely watched by Tel Aviv, especially at a time when Turkish-Israeli and Egyptian relations are at their lowest.

Retired Israeli General Yitzhak Brick warned in an article in the newspaper Ma'arif that any military rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey would pose new security challenges for Israel and undermine Tel Aviv's strategic beliefs.

Egyptian-Israeli relations have remained at a security level since the Gaza war, with embassies operating at a low level for two years. 

Political analyst Mohammed Öztürk believes that Israel's concern about this cooperation is natural because the unification of the voices of historical and religious forces in the region will strengthen their ability to face their challenges.

Cooperation or alliance?

Political analyst Oktay Yilmaz and Egyptian military expert Lieutenant General Osama Kabir agree that this development does not fall within the framework of a "classic military alliance," but a deep strategic cooperation based on common interests.

The most prominent field products of this period:

1. September 2025: Resumption of joint naval exercises "Friendship Sea" after a 13-year hiatus.

2. Air Force handling: Implementation of joint air exercises at an Egyptian military base in recent months.

3. Political issues: Coordination to resolve the Libyan crisis, unite its institutions and preserve the territorial integrity of Syria and Sudan.

outcome

Turkish Defense Ministry spokesman Zaki Akturk said the new phase of relations shows deep bilateral trust. These steps in military training, joint operations and defense industry will not only strengthen the position of Cairo and Ankara, but will also be a key pillar for shaping a new and stable security order in the entire region.

A new defense partnership between Egypt and Turkey could reshape the Eastern Mediterranean power balance

The official message from Cairo and Ankara emphasized "supporting regional stability," but the strategic implications of Egyptian Defense Minister Abdel Mageed Saqr's visit to Turkey extend far beyond diplomatic rhetoric. The signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on military cooperation—combined with growing collaboration in drone technology, defense industries, naval security, and intelligence—signals one of the most consequential geopolitical realignments in the Middle East in years.

For Israel, the rapprochement between two of the region's largest military powers is more than another diplomatic breakthrough. It potentially alters the military equation across Gaza, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and even the wider competition for influence stretching from North Africa to the Gulf.

From Rivals to Strategic Partners

Relations between Egypt and Turkey were deeply strained following the 2013 overthrow of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Ankara openly condemned the military takeover, while Cairo viewed Turkish support for the Muslim Brotherhood as a direct national security threat.

More than a decade later, however, regional realities have forced both governments to reconsider their strategic priorities.

Several factors have driven this reconciliation:

• Growing instability across the Middle East.
• Economic pressures facing both governments.
• Competition over Eastern Mediterranean energy resources.
• The Gaza war and changing regional alliances.
• The emergence of new security threats requiring broader military coordination.

Rather than remaining competitors, Cairo and Ankara increasingly see benefits in coordinated regional leadership.

The Drone Dimension

Perhaps the most significant aspect of the new cooperation involves defense technology.

Turkey has become one of the world's leading exporters of combat drones, producing systems that have transformed battlefields in:

• Libya
• Syria
• Nagorno-Karabakh
• Ukraine
• Iraq

Egypt, meanwhile, possesses one of Africa's largest armed forces but has sought to modernize its indigenous defense industry and reduce dependence on traditional suppliers.

Closer cooperation could include:

• Drone production
• Technology transfer
• Joint manufacturing
• Intelligence-sharing
• Electronic warfare
• Air-defense integration

Such cooperation would significantly expand Egypt's unmanned aerial capabilities while strengthening Turkey's defense-industrial influence across North Africa.

Why Israel Is Paying Close Attention

Israel officially maintains peace treaties and diplomatic channels with both Egypt and Turkey.

Yet Israeli strategists evaluate regional military cooperation according to long-term capability rather than current political intentions.

Several concerns emerge.

1. Two Major Militaries Are Growing Closer

Egypt fields one of the Middle East's largest conventional armies.

Turkey possesses NATO's second-largest military force.

Closer operational coordination between them creates a powerful strategic bloc controlling critical geographic chokepoints.

2. Eastern Mediterranean Energy Competition

The Eastern Mediterranean has become one of the world's emerging energy theaters.

Israel has invested heavily in offshore natural gas production while cooperating with Greece and Cyprus.

Turkey disputes parts of the maritime boundaries recognized by Greece and Cyprus.

Improved Turkish-Egyptian relations could potentially reshape future negotiations over:

• Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs)
• Pipeline routes
• Maritime security
• Offshore exploration

Although Cairo has not abandoned its existing partnerships, Ankara's improving ties reduce the possibility of a united regional front against Turkish maritime ambitions.

3. Gaza Changes the Strategic Environment

The ongoing Gaza conflict has transformed regional diplomacy.

Egypt remains the principal mediator between Israel and Hamas.

Turkey has emerged as one of Israel's harshest critics.

If Cairo and Ankara increasingly coordinate diplomatic and security positions regarding Gaza, Israel may encounter more unified regional pressure during future negotiations.

4. Defense Industry Expansion

Turkey increasingly exports advanced defense systems throughout Africa and the Middle East.

Egypt offers:

• Large domestic demand
• Industrial infrastructure
• Strategic geography
• Access to African markets

Joint production could produce a new regional defense manufacturing hub capable of competing with traditional suppliers.

Beyond Bilateral Cooperation

The military memorandum should also be viewed within the broader restructuring of Middle Eastern alliances.

The traditional regional blocs have weakened.

Instead of fixed alliances, countries increasingly pursue flexible partnerships based on national interests.

Examples include:

• Saudi-Iran normalization.
• Turkey's rapprochement with Gulf states.
• Egypt-Turkey reconciliation.
• Expanding China-Gulf cooperation.
• Diversified military procurement across the region.

This reflects a multipolar Middle East where states seek strategic autonomy rather than alignment with a single external power.

The Red Sea Factor

The partnership also carries implications for Red Sea security.

Both Egypt and Turkey possess growing naval capabilities.

Control over maritime trade routes through:

• Suez Canal
• Bab al-Mandab
• Eastern Mediterranean

has become increasingly important amid instability generated by regional conflicts.

Closer naval coordination could influence future maritime security initiatives affecting global energy shipments.

Regional Winners and Losers

Potential beneficiaries include:

• Egypt's defense modernization.
• Turkey's expanding defense exports.
• Regional economic integration.
• Increased diplomatic coordination.

Potential challenges emerge for:

• Israel's strategic planning.
• Greece and Cyprus regarding maritime disputes.
• Competing defense exporters.
• Existing regional security alignments.

The Strategic Calculation

Israel's concern is unlikely to stem from an immediate military threat.

Instead, Israeli planners traditionally monitor shifts in the regional balance of power years before they translate into operational realities.

Military partnerships often begin with:

• Training
• Intelligence exchange
• Joint exercises

before evolving toward deeper strategic cooperation.

The Egypt-Turkey rapprochement follows precisely this trajectory.

If sustained over the coming decade, it could create one of the Middle East's most influential security partnerships.

Looking Ahead

Whether this cooperation ultimately transforms regional geopolitics depends on several unanswered questions:

• Will military cooperation evolve into a formal strategic alliance?
• Can Cairo and Ankara maintain political trust despite past rivalries?
• How will Greece, Cyprus, and Israel respond diplomatically?
• Will joint drone production become a reality?
• Could the partnership reshape security arrangements in Libya, Gaza, and the Eastern Mediterranean?

For now, the memorandum of understanding represents more than another diplomatic agreement.

It reflects a broader restructuring of Middle Eastern power politics in which former rivals are becoming strategic partners, regional military industries are gaining greater independence, and traditional alliance structures are giving way to more flexible, interest-based coalitions.

For Israel, the significance lies less in today's agreement than in what it could become tomorrow: a long-term convergence between two of the region's most powerful militaries that may gradually redefine the strategic balance from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea.

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