Who really controls Kurdistan’s gas? The Dana Gas deal, the KRG’s silence and the hidden cost of selling energy to Iraq

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By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis      A $2.239 billion arbitration settlement, a contract running until 2049, expanded rights for Pearl Petroleum and a new battle over gas sales to Baghdad are raising uncomfortable questions about who ultimately controls Kurdistan’s most strategic natural resource. The latest dispute over Khor Mor gas is exposing a much deeper problem in the Kurdistan Region’s energy sector: the public still does not appear to have a clear picture of who controls the region’s gas, who is authorized to sell it, and how much of its future value has already been committed to private companies. At the center of the controversy is Pearl Petroleum, the consortium led by Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum, and a settlement agreement reached with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on August 30, 2017. Kurdistan Parliament member Kawa Sheikh Ali has now sharply criticized that agreement, asking why a government would effectively commit its natural ...

Iran threatens ground offensive against Kuwait if U.S. launches Kurdish-backed invasion

 


By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis 

Tehran warns it could expand the conflict beyond Iran's borders if Washington initiates a ground campaign with support from Kurdish forces, raising fears of a wider Gulf war.

Iran warns it could invade Kuwait if the U.S. launches a Kurdish-backed ground offensive, signalling a dangerous expansion of the regional conflict.

Iran Threatens Ground Offensive Against Kuwait if U.S. Launches Kurdish-Backed Invasion

 Iran has issued one of its strongest warnings since the latest escalation with the United States, signalling that it could launch ground operations against Kuwait if Washington initiates a ground invasion of Iran with support from Kurdish forces based in Iraq's Kurdistan Region.

According to The Media Line, a source inside Iran said Tehran would respond to any U.S.-led ground offensive backed by Kurdish groups by expanding the conflict beyond Iranian territory.

The warning follows remarks by Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of Iran's parliamentary National Security Committee, who stated that if American forces entered Iran, Tehran could also launch military operations against Kuwait and Bahrain.

The statements mark a significant escalation in Iranian rhetoric, suggesting that Gulf states hosting U.S. military infrastructure could become direct theatres of conflict should the war enter a new phase.

Tehran Accuses U.S. and Israel of Working with Kurdish Groups

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also intensified accusations that the United States and Israel are attempting to destabilise Iran by cooperating with Kurdish opposition groups operating from neighbouring Iraq.

In an interview published on July 19, Araghchi alleged that Washington and Tel Aviv were pursuing a broader strategy aimed at fragmenting Iran through Kurdish fighters based in Iraq's Kurdistan Region.

He further claimed that former Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi had reached understandings with Israel regarding a post-Islamic Republic political order—an allegation for which no evidence was publicly presented.

Araghchi also asserted that President Donald Trump had communicated with Kurdish opposition figures in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, although no independent confirmation has emerged to substantiate that claim.

Pressure on the Kurdistan Region

The latest remarks place Iraq's Kurdistan Region once again at the centre of regional geopolitical tensions.

For years, Tehran has accused Iranian Kurdish opposition organisations based near the Iraq-Iran border of carrying out activities against the Islamic Republic.

Iran has repeatedly launched missile and drone strikes against positions inside the Kurdistan Region, arguing they were targeting armed opposition groups.

Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have consistently maintained that Iraqi territory should not be used to threaten neighbouring countries.

According to Araghchi, both Baghdad and Erbil have recently assured Tehran that they would prevent any military activities against Iran originating from Iraqi territory.

Regional War Expands

The warning comes as military exchanges between Iran and the United States continue to intensify.

According to reports, both countries have exchanged strikes for nearly two weeks, while the regional conflict has broadened to include attacks involving Iranian-aligned groups across the Middle East.

The security environment has deteriorated further following reported Houthi attacks on shipping and continued U.S. military operations targeting Iranian assets.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington has deployed additional fighter aircraft, special operations forces, logistics units, and medical personnel to the Middle East as the White House considers expanding military operations.

Trump's Escalating Warnings

President Donald Trump has adopted increasingly forceful rhetoric toward Tehran.

In a recent statement, he warned that any Iranian attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger U.S. strikes against critical Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants.

Trump has also indicated that military operations will continue until Iran is prepared to accept Washington's demands, suggesting the administration is maintaining a strategy of sustained military and economic pressure.

Why Kuwait Matters

Iran's reference to Kuwait is strategically significant.

Kuwait hosts major American military facilities that support U.S. operations across the Gulf.

Any Iranian military action against Kuwait would likely activate a broader regional response involving Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members and potentially additional U.S. military assets stationed throughout the region.

Such a scenario would represent a dramatic escalation beyond direct U.S.-Iran confrontation, transforming the conflict into a broader Gulf war.

Geopolitical Analysis

Whether Iran intends to carry out such threats remains uncertain.

Historically, Tehran has often employed strong rhetoric as part of its deterrence strategy, signalling the potential costs of foreign intervention without necessarily implementing every warning.

However, the latest statements illustrate how rapidly the conflict could expand if U.S. strategy shifts from air and missile strikes toward a ground campaign.

By explicitly mentioning Kuwait and linking Kurdish forces to alleged foreign intervention, Iranian officials appear to be sending simultaneous messages to Washington, Gulf Arab states, and the Kurdistan Region.

For Kurdish authorities, the accusations increase diplomatic pressure to demonstrate that Iraqi territory will not be used for military operations against Iran.

For Gulf states, they reinforce concerns that regional military bases and infrastructure could become targets in any wider confrontation.

Why This Matters

Iran's warning represents more than another exchange of hostile rhetoric. It highlights the growing risk that any future U.S. ground intervention could rapidly transform into a regional conflict involving Gulf states and Iraq's Kurdistan Region. Whether these threats remain part of Tehran's deterrence strategy or evolve into military action will largely depend on how the confrontation between Washington and Tehran develops in the coming weeks.

Sources

  • The Media Line
  • The Wall Street Journal
  • Public statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
  • Public statements by Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani

#Iran #UnitedStates #Kuwait #Kurdistan #Trump #MiddleEast #Gulf #Geopolitics #Military #Security #IranIsrael #KurdishPolicyAnalysis

Also read
https://www.kurdishpolicyanalysis.com/2026/07/trump-iranian-funds-pay-future-shipping-damage.html

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