By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj 

Israel - Azerbaijan! Kurds in East Kurdistan!

Israeli-Azerbaijani relations deteriorate on the margins of Israel's recognition of Armenian genocide!

Before discussing the emerging tensions between Tel Aviv and Baku, I think it is necessary to point out the historical and strategic fact that Azerbaijan is the main supplier of about 40% of Israel's oil; The country is also considered one of the largest buyers and consumers of Israeli military equipment, including advanced missile defense systems, attack and suicide drones and modern surveillance equipment.

In addition, Israel has pioneered the establishment of the first drone factory in Azerbaijan, thus paving the way for the construction of a domestic military industrial base through the continuous development of logistical cooperation The 2011 agreement, worth nearly $30 billion, marked a turning point in the country's domestic drone production, with the company's drones playing a decisive role in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Regarding the beginning of a new and sensitive phase in bilateral relations between the two countries; On June 28, the Israeli cabinet unanimously approved Foreign Minister Gideon Sagh's official proposal to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide.

The content of this resolution emphasizes that the State of Israel recognizes the genocide committed against the Armenian people at the end of the Ottoman Empire, and strongly condemns any attempt aimed at denying, minimizing or distorting historical truth.

During the government meeting, the Foreign Minister stressed the great value and historical dimensions of this decision under the slogan “It is never too late to implement justice”.

On June 26, just two days before the Israeli government met on the draft resolution, a serious telephone conversation took place between Gideon Sagh and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jehun Bayramov.

During the talks, the Azerbaijani foreign minister warned that Israel's official recognition of the Armenian genocide would hinder the delicate process of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and peace efforts within the framework of President Donald Trump's projects.

For his part, Bayramov conveyed the strong concerns and objections of the Baku government and called for the draft resolution not to be put to a vote and not approved, but Israel did not respond positively to the request and passed the resolution without any external considerations. 

The move sparked a strong reaction, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan immediately announcing that Ankara would not forgive Israel easily.

After the draft resolution was passed at the cabinet level, it was supposed to be sent to the Israeli Knesset for final approval. The proposal was put on the agenda twice at urgent request, but both times it was removed for different reasons.

After Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli political leadership ignored Erdogan's threats and Baku's demands, Azerbaijani and Turkish parties began intensive political movements through cells in the Jewish community in Azerbaijan, including the chief rabbi of the Sefagadi religious community in Baku, Zamir Isayev He held intensive talks with senior Israeli lawmakers, especially those from the right-wing Shas and Yehdut Togha parties, stressing that the passage of the recognition in the Knesset would threaten the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan and strong strategic relations between Tel Aviv and Baku.

They raised the strategic importance of Azerbaijan to Israel in the equation against Iran, especially due to its neighborhood and common border with Iran, depth of security cooperation, and supply of more than 40 percent of Israel's oil and other energy resources. 

According to informed sources, they had told the leadership of the ruling Likud Party that if the resolution was presented to the Knesset, the coalitions of Shas and Yehadut Hawtora would vote against it, which would cause the proposal to fall. With the Knesset consisting of 120 seats, the ruling right-wing front led by Netanyahu has a narrow majority of 61 seats against the opposition's 59 seats.

Thanks to these political tensions between Arab members of the Knesset, the opposition and religious allies such as Shas and Yehadut Hawtura, Prime Minister Netanyahu's advisers came to the conclusion that there was no guaranteed majority to pass the resolution. Therefore, Netanyahu decided not to bring the bill to the Knesset and agreed with the cabinet's decision, insisting that the government's decision was sufficient, and it was officially published in the newspaper Haaghts (הארץ) as a draft resolution.

But after this scene, what else happened?

Last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa at the presidential palace in Baku. The official presidential statement explicitly emphasized Azerbaijan's support for the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. The move is likely to move diplomatic relations between Tel Aviv and Baku into a period of escalating tensions.

The official statement from Aliyev's palace also highlighted that Baku will continue to provide aid to the Palestinian people, including through UNRWA, and has strategic plans to build a high school in the Palestinian territories.

In Tel Aviv, Israeli decision-makers have always seen Azerbaijan as one of their most strategic and important partners in the region. After years of intense security, intelligence and economic cooperation, Baku's position on the Iranian border has always provided a sensitive geographical position The collapse of Iran and giving more role and position to the Kurdish nation in the country, which will undoubtedly destroy the great interests of Turkey and Turkey in any corner of the world in the new Iran.

One of Israel's closest strategic partnerships in the Muslim world may be entering a period of unprecedented strain. Reports that the Israeli cabinet has approved a proposal to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide have introduced a sensitive new variable into relations with Azerbaijan, a country that has become one of Israel's most important energy suppliers, defense partners, and geopolitical allies.

For years, the Israel-Azerbaijan partnership has been built on strategic necessity rather than ideological alignment. Azerbaijan supplies a significant share of Israel's crude oil imports, while Israel has emerged as one of Baku's principal suppliers of advanced military technology. This mutually beneficial relationship has reshaped the military balance in the South Caucasus and expanded Israel's strategic reach along Iran's northern border.

If Israel formally recognizes the Armenian Genocide, however, it risks triggering political friction with Baku at a time when regional alliances are already undergoing profound transformation. The implications may extend beyond the South Caucasus, influencing Iran's security calculations and indirectly affecting Kurdish regions in western Iran (East Kurdistan).

A Strategic Partnership Built on Energy and Security

Before examining the emerging tensions, it is important to understand why Israel and Azerbaijan have developed such a close relationship.

Azerbaijan is widely regarded as one of Israel's most important energy partners, supplying a substantial portion of the country's crude oil imports through pipelines linking the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.

The relationship has also become one of the strongest defense partnerships outside NATO.

Israel has supplied Azerbaijan with:

• Advanced missile-defense systems.
• Precision-guided weapons.
• Intelligence and surveillance technologies.
• Loitering munitions (suicide drones).
• Reconnaissance drones.
• Electronic warfare capabilities.

Beyond exports, Israeli defense firms helped establish Azerbaijan's domestic drone manufacturing industry, enabling Baku to expand indigenous military production.

These capabilities played an important role during Azerbaijan's military campaigns in Nagorno-Karabakh, where drone warfare fundamentally altered the regional balance of power.

Why Recognition Matters

According to reports, the Israeli cabinet has approved Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar's proposal to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide.

If implemented, the decision would represent a major shift in Israeli foreign policy.

For decades, successive Israeli governments avoided formal recognition largely because of strategic considerations involving:

• Azerbaijan.
• Turkey.
• Regional security.
• Energy cooperation.

Official recognition would therefore carry symbolic importance far beyond historical memory.

For Armenia, it would represent significant diplomatic support.

For Azerbaijan, however, it could be interpreted as a political move that challenges one of the most sensitive issues in its national narrative.

The Azerbaijan Dilemma

Despite any political disagreement over historical recognition, Azerbaijan and Israel remain deeply interconnected.

Baku continues to value:

• Israeli military technology.
• Intelligence cooperation.
• Defense modernization.
• Strategic coordination regarding Iran.

Meanwhile, Israel benefits from:

• Secure energy supplies.
• Intelligence access in the South Caucasus.
• A close partnership on Iran's northern frontier.

These mutual interests suggest that neither side would welcome a prolonged diplomatic rupture.

Nevertheless, symbolism matters in international politics, particularly when issues involve national identity and historical memory.

The Iran Factor

The evolving relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan cannot be separated from Iran.

Tehran has long viewed Israeli influence in Azerbaijan with suspicion, particularly because the two countries share a lengthy border.

Iran has repeatedly expressed concern over:

• Israeli intelligence activities.
• Military cooperation.
• Drone infrastructure.
• Security coordination near Iranian territory.

Any deterioration in Israel-Azerbaijan relations could alter Tehran's strategic calculations.

If bilateral tensions increase, Iran may perceive an opportunity to improve relations with Baku or reduce Israeli influence along its northern frontier.

Conversely, if security cooperation remains intact despite diplomatic disagreements, Tehran's concerns are unlikely to diminish.

Implications for East Kurdistan

Although the immediate dispute centers on Armenia and Azerbaijan, its ripple effects could extend to Iran's Kurdish regions, often referred to by Kurdish nationalists as East Kurdistan.

The northwestern provinces of Iran occupy a strategic crossroads linking:

• Iran.
• Azerbaijan.
• Armenia.
• Turkey.

Any significant change in regional security dynamics inevitably affects this frontier.

Should Iran perceive reduced Israeli influence in Azerbaijan, it may redirect security resources toward other areas, including Kurdish regions.

Alternatively, if Israel seeks to compensate for diplomatic friction with Baku by strengthening other regional partnerships, geopolitical competition around Iran's borderlands could intensify.

While no direct connection currently exists between the genocide recognition debate and Kurdish political movements, broader regional realignments often reshape the strategic environment in which those movements operate.

A Test of Strategic Pragmatism

The emerging dispute illustrates the tension between values and strategic interests in foreign policy.

Recognition of historical atrocities may strengthen Israel's moral and diplomatic standing with some partners.

At the same time, it risks complicating one of its most valuable strategic relationships.

For Azerbaijan, balancing national historical sensitivities with long-term security cooperation will require careful diplomacy.

Both governments have invested heavily in a partnership that extends far beyond symbolism.

Future Implications

If Israel formally recognizes the Armenian Genocide, the immediate diplomatic reaction from Azerbaijan may be sharp, but a complete strategic rupture appears unlikely given the depth of mutual security and energy interests.

In the short term, both governments may attempt to compartmentalize historical disagreements while preserving cooperation in defense, intelligence, and energy. However, political trust could weaken, making future coordination more complicated.

For Iran, any signs of tension between Israel and Azerbaijan will be closely monitored. Tehran may seek to capitalize on diplomatic friction by expanding its engagement with Baku or by portraying itself as a more reliable regional partner. At the same time, Iranian security agencies are likely to remain vigilant regarding Israeli activities near their northern border.

The South Caucasus could also witness renewed geopolitical competition as Russia, Turkey, and Western powers reassess the implications of any shift in Israel-Azerbaijan relations. Changes in one strategic partnership often create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

For Kurdish regions in western Iran (East Kurdistan), the implications are indirect but significant. As regional alliances evolve, security priorities along Iran's northwestern frontier may also change, potentially affecting military deployments, intelligence activities, and cross-border dynamics. While the Kurdish question is not at the center of this dispute, it remains closely connected to the broader geopolitical balance surrounding Iran's borders.

Ultimately, the controversy highlights a recurring reality of Middle Eastern geopolitics: historical recognition and strategic necessity do not always move in the same direction. How Israel and Azerbaijan manage this tension will shape not only bilateral relations but also the wider strategic landscape stretching from the South Caucasus to the Middle East.

#Israel #Azerbaijan #Armenia #Iran #Geopolitics