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Trump's Turkey Pivot? F-35 Jets, Sanctions Relief, and a New U.S.–Turkey Reset Could Reshape the Middle East

 


By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis  

Donald Trump's remarks about reconsidering F-35 sales, lifting sanctions, and strengthening ties with Ankara signal what could become the most significant shift in U.S.–Turkey relations in years—with far-reaching consequences for NATO, the Middle East, Greece, Syria, and the Kurdish question.

An analysis of Donald Trump's remarks on F-35 sales, sanctions relief, and renewed U.S.–Turkey relations, exploring what a strategic reset could mean for NATO, Syria, the Kurds, Greece, and the balance of power in the Middle East.

Trump's Turkey Pivot? F-35 Jets, Sanctions Relief, and a New U.S.–Turkey Reset Could Reshape the Middle East

Relations between Washington and Ankara have rarely been straightforward. Over the past decade, disagreements over Syria, the purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, sanctions, and Turkey's removal from the F-35 fighter jet program transformed two long-standing NATO allies into increasingly uneasy partners.

Now, Donald Trump has indicated that another reset may be underway.

During remarks alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Trump suggested that the United States could reconsider selling F-35 fighter aircraft to Turkey, work toward lifting sanctions imposed on Ankara, and deepen bilateral cooperation.

If translated into policy, these statements would represent one of the most significant shifts in U.S.–Turkey relations since Turkey's removal from the F-35 program in 2019.

More importantly, such a reset would extend well beyond defense procurement. It would reshape regional security calculations from the Black Sea to Syria and from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.

The Return of the F-35 Question

Trump's most consequential remark concerned the possibility of selling F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey.

Turkey was originally one of the principal partners in the multinational F-35 program.

Ankara invested billions of dollars, Turkish defense companies manufactured components for the aircraft, and the Turkish Air Force expected to become one of its major operators.

That changed after Turkey acquired the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system.

Washington argued that operating both systems simultaneously posed unacceptable security risks, potentially exposing sensitive F-35 technology to Russian intelligence.

As a result:

  • Turkey was removed from the F-35 program.
  • Planned aircraft deliveries were halted.
  • U.S. sanctions followed under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Trump's willingness to revisit the issue suggests that strategic considerations may once again outweigh previous disagreements.

Why Washington May Need Turkey Again

The geopolitical environment has changed considerably.

Turkey occupies one of the most strategically important locations in NATO.

It controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosporus and Dardanelles, borders Syria, Iraq, Iran, and the Caucasus, and maintains one of NATO's largest militaries.

As security competition with Russia intensifies and instability persists across the Middle East, Washington has renewed incentives to strengthen cooperation with Ankara.

Turkey remains indispensable for several U.S. priorities:

  • Black Sea security
  • NATO's southeastern flank
  • regional counterterrorism
  • energy transit
  • migration management
  • stability in Syria

Improved bilateral relations could therefore serve broader American strategic interests.

Sanctions Relief Signals a Broader Reset

Trump also suggested that Washington would work toward lifting sanctions imposed on Turkey.

While sanctions have strained bilateral relations, they have also complicated defense-industrial cooperation and limited opportunities for broader economic engagement.

Removing or easing these restrictions would likely signal a political decision to move beyond past disputes and rebuild trust.

Such a step would also encourage renewed collaboration between American and Turkish defense industries.

Erdoğan's Diplomatic Victory?

For President Erdoğan, Trump's remarks represent an important diplomatic achievement.

For years, Ankara has argued that Turkey's removal from the F-35 program was politically motivated rather than strategically necessary.

Successive Turkish governments have maintained that NATO should strengthen, rather than weaken, cooperation among allies.

If Turkey eventually rejoins the F-35 program—or receives alternative defense arrangements—it would represent a significant foreign policy success for Erdoğan, demonstrating Ankara's continued strategic importance despite years of tension with Washington.

Implications for Syria and the Kurdish Question

A warmer U.S.–Turkey relationship would inevitably influence developments in Syria.

One of the principal disagreements between Washington and Ankara has concerned U.S. cooperation with Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria.

Turkey considers the principal Kurdish armed groups operating there to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which Ankara designates as a terrorist organization.

The United States, however, has viewed Kurdish-led forces as key partners in the campaign against the self-proclaimed Islamic State.

Should Washington prioritize strategic relations with Turkey, Kurdish actors may become increasingly concerned about the future level of American political and military support.

Whether such concerns ultimately materialize will depend on future policy decisions rather than political rhetoric alone.

NATO's Internal Balance

Trump also emphasized his intention to participate in a NATO gathering hosted by Turkey, describing his relationship with Erdoğan as stronger than with many other allies.

These comments reflect a broader effort to strengthen ties with Ankara while encouraging greater burden-sharing within NATO.

For the alliance, improved U.S.–Turkey relations could reduce internal tensions that have complicated collective decision-making in recent years.

However, closer cooperation with Ankara may also generate concern among other allies, particularly Greece, which has longstanding disputes with Turkey over maritime boundaries, airspace, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Balancing these competing interests will remain a delicate diplomatic challenge.

Energy and Migration Remain Strategic Priorities

Trump's remarks on migration and energy also deserve attention.

By warning that Europe must address migration and energy security to preserve its stability, he highlighted two issues where Turkey plays a central role.

Turkey hosts millions of refugees and serves as a key transit country between the Middle East and Europe. It is also an increasingly important energy corridor connecting producers in the Caspian region and the Middle East with European markets.

These factors reinforce Turkey's strategic importance regardless of changes in U.S. domestic politics.

Beyond Defense: A Strategic Realignment?

Taken together, Trump's comments suggest something larger than a discussion about fighter aircraft.

They point toward a possible strategic realignment based on mutual interests rather than unresolved disagreements.

Potential areas of expanded cooperation include:

  • defense modernization
  • intelligence sharing
  • regional security
  • energy infrastructure
  • economic investment
  • NATO coordination
  • Black Sea security

If implemented, such cooperation could reshape the regional balance of power for years to come.

Conclusion

Donald Trump's remarks indicate that Washington may be preparing to reassess one of its most important—and most complicated—alliances. The possibility of renewed F-35 sales, sanctions relief, and closer strategic cooperation suggests that geopolitical realities are once again driving U.S.–Turkey relations.

For Ankara, such a reset would validate its enduring strategic importance within NATO and the wider Middle East. For Washington, rebuilding trust with Turkey could strengthen its position across multiple theaters, from the Black Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria.

Yet any improvement in bilateral ties will also carry broader regional implications. It will influence NATO's internal dynamics, shape security calculations in Syria, affect relations with Greece, and be closely watched by Kurdish actors concerned about the future of U.S. policy. Whether this marks the beginning of a lasting strategic partnership or simply a temporary diplomatic opening will depend on how these statements are translated into concrete policy in the months ahead.

#Trump #Turkey #F35 #NATO #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #UnitedStates #Erdoğan #Defense #ForeignPolicy #Syria #Ukraine

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