By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis  

Military strikes may have weakened parts of Iran's infrastructure, but they failed to achieve the far more ambitious objective of fracturing the regime's political cohesion, leadership, and national resilience.

An opinion analysis arguing that the first phase of the U.S.–Israel campaign against Iran failed to achieve its strategic objectives of destabilizing the regime, exposing the limits of military power in engineering political change.

The West Misjudged Iran: Why the First Phase of the U.S.–Israel Campaign Failed to Break the Islamic Republic

Military victories and strategic victories are not always the same. Throughout history, states have often won battles only to lose the political objectives that justified the war in the first place. The recent U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran illustrates this distinction. While the operation undoubtedly imposed military and economic costs on Tehran, it failed to accomplish what many observers believed was its underlying strategic aim: weakening the Islamic Republic from within.

Rather than triggering elite fragmentation, widespread political collapse, or a crisis of legitimacy, the conflict appears to have reinforced the very structures it sought to undermine. Instead of producing a fractured leadership willing to negotiate from a position of weakness, Iran emerged with a renewed sense of strategic resilience and political cohesion.

If this assessment proves correct, then the first phase of the conflict should not be viewed as a decisive victory for Washington and Tel Aviv, but as a warning about the limits of military coercion in reshaping deeply entrenched political systems.

Regime Change Was Never Just About Military Targets

Officially, the military campaign focused on degrading Iran's strategic capabilities, disrupting its military infrastructure, and limiting its regional influence. Yet the broader political expectation extended well beyond military objectives.

Many analysts anticipated that sustained military pressure would expose divisions within Iran's leadership, weaken public confidence in the government, and encourage political fragmentation. Some even hoped that eliminating senior commanders and influential figures would create space for a more pragmatic leadership willing to accommodate Western interests.

That expectation rested on a familiar assumption in modern strategic thinking: remove enough key decision-makers, and political systems become unstable.

Iran demonstrated that reality can be far more complex.

Leadership Proved More Resilient Than Expected

One of the conflict's most significant lessons is that political institutions matter more than individual personalities.

Iran's governing system has spent decades preparing for precisely this type of contingency. Leadership succession mechanisms, parallel security institutions, and ideological cohesion allowed replacements to emerge rapidly following losses among senior figures.

Rather than producing institutional paralysis, the conflict accelerated leadership renewal.

This reflects a broader characteristic of revolutionary political systems. Their legitimacy is often rooted less in individual leaders than in enduring ideological institutions. Removing individuals therefore does not necessarily remove the system that produced them.

History offers similar examples. Decapitation strategies have frequently failed to produce political collapse when successor networks remain intact and institutions continue functioning.

Nationalism Often Strengthens Under External Pressure

Military planners sometimes assume that external pressure will encourage domestic opposition.

In practice, the opposite frequently occurs.

Foreign attacks often generate what political scientists describe as the "rally around the flag" effect, where internal divisions temporarily diminish in the face of perceived external threats.

Iran's political leadership has long portrayed itself as defending national sovereignty against foreign intervention.

The recent conflict reinforced this narrative.

Even Iranians critical of domestic governance may distinguish between internal political disagreements and external military pressure. Foreign intervention can inadvertently strengthen nationalist sentiment, making regime change more difficult rather than easier.

This dynamic has repeatedly shaped conflicts across the Middle East.

Iran's Response Demonstrated Strategic Deterrence

Another important outcome of the conflict was Iran's ability to demonstrate that it retains multiple avenues for strategic retaliation.

Rather than limiting itself to conventional military responses, Tehran emphasized its capacity to threaten regional pressure points, including maritime trade routes, energy infrastructure, and American military installations throughout the Middle East.

The repeated references to the Strait of Hormuz were particularly significant.

Even without permanently closing the waterway, Iran reminded global markets that it possesses the capability to disrupt one of the world's most important energy corridors.

This alone carries substantial strategic value.

Similarly, Iran's network of regional partners and allied armed groups continues to provide asymmetric options that complicate any effort to impose military solutions.

The Limits of Decapitation Strategy

Modern warfare increasingly relies on precision strikes against leadership.

The assumption is straightforward: eliminate commanders, and organizations become ineffective.

However, experience suggests otherwise.

From insurgent organizations to nation-states, leadership decapitation often produces adaptation rather than collapse.

Organizations develop succession plans, distribute authority, and cultivate multiple generations of leadership precisely because they anticipate targeted attacks.

Iran's political and military institutions appear to have followed this model.

The replacement of senior figures occurred rapidly enough to prevent prolonged strategic disruption.

Strategic Success Cannot Be Measured by Bomb Damage Alone

Military operations are often evaluated through measurable indicators:

• facilities destroyed
• commanders eliminated
• missiles intercepted
• infrastructure degraded

Yet political wars require different metrics.

The more important questions include:

• Has the adversary become politically weaker?
• Has its decision-making capacity diminished?
• Has public confidence collapsed?
• Have elite divisions intensified?
• Has strategic behavior fundamentally changed?

At least during this first phase of the conflict, the evidence remains inconclusive.

Iran continues to project regional influence, maintain political cohesion, and preserve its deterrence strategy.

That suggests the campaign achieved only part of its broader objectives.

The War Is Far From Over

Declaring victory after a single phase of a prolonged strategic confrontation would be premature.

Neither Iran nor its adversaries appear ready to fundamentally alter their long-term objectives.

Instead, the conflict is likely entering a new stage characterized by:

• cyber operations
• intelligence competition
• proxy warfare
• economic pressure
• diplomatic maneuvering
• limited military escalation

Future phases may produce different outcomes.

However, they will also require more sophisticated strategies than reliance on military force alone.

A Lesson for Policymakers

One of the enduring lessons of modern conflict is that governments rarely collapse simply because they are attacked from outside.

Political transformation usually depends upon domestic dynamics rather than external military pressure.

Foreign intervention can remove capabilities.

It can degrade infrastructure.

It can impose economic costs.

But changing political identity, ideological commitment, and institutional resilience is considerably more difficult.

The first phase of the U.S.–Israeli campaign appears to reinforce that lesson.

Conclusion

Whether one supports or opposes Iran's regional policies, the strategic lesson remains the same: military superiority does not automatically translate into political success. The first phase of the U.S.–Israeli campaign demonstrated the remarkable resilience of Iran's governing institutions and exposed the limitations of strategies centered on leadership decapitation and coercive pressure.

Rather than collapsing under sustained external pressure, Iran adapted, replaced key figures, maintained institutional continuity, and preserved its ability to project deterrence across the region. If the ultimate objective was to fracture the Islamic Republic from within or compel the emergence of a more accommodating leadership, those ambitions have yet to materialize.

The broader confrontation is unlikely to end soon. Instead, it is evolving into a prolonged contest over political endurance, regional influence, economic resilience, and strategic adaptation. In that contest, the decisive question is no longer which side possesses greater military power, but which side can better translate battlefield actions into lasting political outcomes.

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