Iranian Kurdish opposition sees opening for armed uprising after U.S. strikes on IRGC targets
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Kurdish Policy Analysis
Iranian Kurdish opposition groups say recent U.S. strikes on IRGC positions in northwestern Iran have weakened Tehran and could create conditions for an armed uprising.
Iranian Kurdish opposition groups say recent U.S. strikes on military targets in the country's northwest have inflicted significant losses on the Iranian government, potentially creating an opening for an armed uprising.
Iranian Kurdish opposition figures told MBN that the concentration of U.S. strikes in recent days on regime positions in northwestern Iran could make it easier to launch a ground campaign against Iranian forces involving Kurdish fighters.
The sources said the latest U.S. attacks caused heavy losses to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its infrastructure in predominantly Kurdish areas of western Iran.
The U.S. Central Command said it carried out an intensive two-hour wave of strikes early Thursday targeting dozens of IRGC sites, including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense positions, and naval capabilities.
The strikes came days after fighting had subsided and followed what Washington said was a surprise attempt by the IRGC to target U.S. forces in Jordan.
Iranian state television reported early Thursday that the U.S. military had carried out airstrikes near the Iraqi border in northwestern Iran.
It said the city of Piranshahr, in West Azerbaijan province, had come under U.S. attack.
Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency said the strikes in West Azerbaijan province caused no casualties or material damage because they hit an uninhabited area.
Iranian state media also reported that three people were killed in U.S. strikes on Qeshm Island.
Kurdish Expectations
A senior figure in one of Iran’s Kurdish opposition parties told MBN that the intensifying U.S. attacks on IRGC bases and headquarters in northwestern Iran signaled “a shift toward preparing the ground for an anticipated land operation against the Iranian regime.”
The Kurdish opposition official said Iran’s growing military and security weaknesses could facilitate the launch of “an armed uprising in those areas that could spread to other cities.”
Iran has not disclosed the extent of its military losses. The opposition official claimed that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since the war began on Feb. 28 had destroyed more than 60 percent of Iran’s security and military infrastructure in predominantly Kurdish regions. MBN could not independently verify that claim.
Kurds make up about 10 percent of Iran’s population and are concentrated in the northwestern provinces of Kurdistan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan and Ilam. Kurdish activists have long complained of discrimination and political marginalization under the Iranian government. Several Iranian Kurdish opposition parties are based in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.
Khalil Nadari, spokesman for the opposition Kurdistan Freedom Party, told MBN that U.S. strikes targeting the IRGC and Iran’s military infrastructure were “extremely important.”
“They remove major obstacles from our path if we move inside to liberate our lands from the regime,” he said. “But these strikes must continue until all IRGC facilities and bases are destroyed.”
Nadari said Kurdish forces were prepared to confront the Iranian government if they received international backing, which, he said, should also include preventing Turkey from taking military action against them.
President Donald Trump sent mixed signals early in the war about a possible role for Kurdish fighters in a ground campaign against Iran. On the sixth day of the conflict, Trump said he believed an attack by Iranian Kurdish fighters based in Iraq would be “a great thing.” Two days later, however, he reversed course, saying, “We’re not looking to bring in the Kurds. I’ve ruled out that option.”
Preparing for Escalation
The IRGC has recently redeployed its forces across northwestern Iran, relocating positions and concentrating weapons, missiles and drones in Kurdish cities, effectively turning them into military zones.
Tabnak, a news outlet close to Iran’s Assembly of Experts, published video footage showing military exercises in mountainous areas and valleys across Kurdish-majority regions in northwestern Iran.
Farzin Karbasi, an Iranian Kurdish political analyst based in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, said, “The Kurds are part of this war whether they want to be or not.”
“A military confrontation with the Iranian regime is inevitable,” he said. “The Islamic Republic is approaching its end, and that is why it is trying to destroy everything around it and eliminate its opponents.”
Despite the scale of recent U.S. strikes, Karbasi said more attacks were needed against IRGC bases in Kurdish-majority areas, arguing that many military facilities had yet to be targeted.
He said he expected an armed insurgency led by Kurdish parties to emerge in northwestern Iran if the government continued its attacks on Kurdish communities.
Jamil Ahmadi, a Kurdish opposition political activist based in Europe, told MBN that Kurdish parties headquartered in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region could move militarily into Iran’s Kurdish areas and seize the opportunity to confront the government while leading a broader popular uprising.
He said those parties were also seeking to respond to criticism from supporters and members who believed they had failed to capitalize on the previous 40-day war by acting against the Iranian government.
Ahmadi said the Kurdish parties had yet to receive international assurances in exchange for confronting Tehran. For now, he said, they remained focused on protecting themselves and civilians inside and outside Iran from ongoing Iranian attacks.
Since the start of the war, Iran has launched hundreds of attacks against the headquarters and camps of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, with the city of Erbil bearing the brunt of the strikes.
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