Kurdish Policy Analysis

  

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis

As Washington rehabilitates Damascus and deepens engagement with Syria, Iraq is no longer caught between rival powers—it is becoming the indispensable bridge connecting regional security, energy, and diplomacy.

 Iraq's growing rapprochement with Syria is strengthening Baghdad's regional influence as Washington's new Syria policy increases Iraq's strategic value rather than its vulnerability.

Iraq Is No Longer Trapped Between Washington and Tehran—It Is Becoming the Region's Strategic Pivot

For years, analysts have portrayed Iraq as a country perpetually squeezed between competing regional and international powers. Whether navigating tensions between the United States and Iran or balancing relations with Arab neighbors and Turkey, Baghdad has often been described as a reluctant player reacting to events beyond its control.

That assumption is increasingly outdated.

A series of major diplomatic shifts—including the Trump administration's decision to remove Syria from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism and the appointment of Ambassador Tom Barrack as presidential envoy for both Iraq and Syria—suggest Washington is redefining the region as a single strategic theater.

Rather than weakening Iraq's position, this new approach could significantly increase Baghdad's geopolitical leverage.

If Syria is to become a stable partner once again, Iraq is no longer merely a neighboring state—it is becoming an indispensable strategic corridor.

Washington's New Vision for the Region

The Trump administration's July decision to notify Congress of its intention to rescind Syria's terrorism designation represents far more than a symbolic diplomatic gesture.

Combined with earlier sanctions relief and Washington's broader engagement with Damascus, it signals a dramatic shift in American regional strategy.

The appointment of Ambassador Tom Barrack to oversee both Iraq and Syria reinforces this message.

By placing Iraq and Syria under one diplomatic framework, Washington appears to recognize that neither country's future can be separated from the other.

For Baghdad, this creates an unexpected opportunity.

Instead of worrying about becoming collateral damage in US-Iran competition, Iraq now occupies the geographic and political space necessary for Washington's Syria policy to succeed.

Syria Cannot Rebuild Without Iraq

Reconstruction requires more than international funding.

It requires roads, pipelines, trade routes, border security, and functioning regional partnerships.

Almost every one of those requirements points toward Iraq.

Geographically, Iraq provides Syria's most important eastern gateway, connecting Damascus with both the Gulf and Iran through overland transport corridors.

Economically, future trade and energy cooperation depend heavily on secure Iraqi territory.

From a security perspective, Baghdad also plays an essential role.

Earlier this year, US Central Command transferred thousands of Islamic State detainees from northeastern Syria into Iraqi custody, demonstrating the close operational coordination that already exists between the two governments.

Without Iraqi cooperation, Syria's long-term stabilization becomes considerably more difficult.

Security Cooperation Is Already Expanding

Recent events along the Iraq-Syria border demonstrate both the risks and the growing maturity of bilateral coordination.

In early August, Syria deployed additional military forces near the Iraqi frontier under a heightened security alert.

Although the move initially generated speculation about possible tensions involving Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups, Iraqi military officials quickly stated that the deployment had been coordinated between both governments.

That public clarification prevented unnecessary escalation.

It also demonstrated a level of military communication that would have been difficult to imagine only a few years ago.

Shared concerns over the continued threat posed by the Islamic State provide perhaps the strongest foundation for closer long-term cooperation.

Energy Could Transform the Relationship

Security may have driven initial cooperation, but economics is increasingly becoming the central pillar.

One of the most important developments has been renewed efforts to revive the historic Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, which has remained inactive since the 2003 Iraq War.

Following disruptions to Iraq's exports through the Strait of Hormuz, Baghdad has intensified efforts to diversify its export routes.

A functioning pipeline through Syria would significantly reduce Iraq's dependence on a single maritime corridor while providing Syria with transit revenues and greater economic integration.

Recent memoranda of understanding signed between Iraqi and Syrian state energy companies—and supported by a consortium reportedly led by Chevron—illustrate that discussions are moving beyond political symbolism toward practical infrastructure projects.

For both governments, energy cooperation represents shared strategic interests rather than temporary political convenience.

Beyond Security and Oil

The Iraq-Syria relationship extends well beyond military cooperation.

Religious tourism remains an important area of mutual interest.

Millions of Iraqi Shiite pilgrims traditionally visit holy shrines inside Syria, creating economic opportunities while reinforcing longstanding cultural connections.

Iraqi officials increasingly view Syria's stability as directly linked to Iraq's own domestic security.

Instability inside Syria can rapidly spill across the border through refugee flows, militant activity, or disrupted trade.

Conversely, a stable Syria contributes to a more secure western Iraq.

Political Obstacles Remain

Despite improving relations, significant political challenges continue to complicate rapprochement.

Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa remains a controversial figure among many Iraqi political factions due to his past involvement with extremist organizations before leading the coalition that ultimately replaced Bashar al-Assad.

Many influential Iraqi leaders remain cautious.

Trust between Damascus and Baghdad will therefore develop gradually rather than overnight.

Nevertheless, shared strategic interests increasingly outweigh historical grievances.

The Iran Factor

The greatest limitation on Iraq's diplomatic flexibility remains Iran.

Baghdad can strengthen relations with Syria and deepen engagement with Washington—but only to the extent that these policies do not fundamentally undermine Iraq's relationship with Tehran.

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's July visit to Washington demonstrated this balancing act.

The visit was welcomed by the United States but criticized by several Iran-aligned Iraqi factions.

His subsequent trip to Tehran highlighted Baghdad's continuing effort to reassure Iran while simultaneously expanding cooperation with Washington.

This balancing strategy is unlikely to disappear.

Instead, it has become Iraq's defining diplomatic approach.

Iraq's Leverage Is Growing

The most important consequence of Washington's Syria policy may therefore have little to do with Syria itself.

By making Syrian reconstruction a strategic priority, the United States has simultaneously increased Iraq's importance.

Neither reconstruction, regional trade, border security, nor counterterrorism cooperation can succeed without Iraqi participation.

That gives Baghdad something it has often lacked in regional diplomacy: leverage.

Rather than serving merely as the arena where larger powers compete, Iraq increasingly finds itself becoming a partner whose cooperation all sides actively seek.

A New Regional Role

This emerging reality represents one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in the Middle East since the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

Washington needs Iraq to stabilize Syria.

Damascus needs Iraq for reconstruction, trade, and security.

The Gulf states increasingly view Iraq as a critical transit and investment corridor.

Even Iran benefits from maintaining stable relations with Baghdad as regional dynamics evolve.

For perhaps the first time in decades, Iraq is not simply reacting to regional events—it is helping shape them.

How Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi manages this growing influence may determine whether Iraq finally transforms its strategic geography into lasting diplomatic power.

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