By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj / Kurdish Policy Analysis

Behind the headlines, Iraq and Turkey are relying on informal diplomacy to manage border security and energy cooperation as both governments seek a long-term agreement following the collapse of their decades-old oil pipeline framework.

Iraq and Turkey are using informal diplomacy to manage border security and oil exports as both sides work toward a new long-term energy cooperation agreement.

Relations between Iraq and Turkey have entered a new phase, defined less by public disputes and more by quiet diplomacy conducted behind closed doors. Informal communication channels between senior officials—often described as "WhatsApp diplomacy"—have become increasingly important in managing sensitive issues ranging from border security to energy cooperation.

While public attention has focused on military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and regional security developments, negotiations over oil exports have become equally central to Baghdad-Ankara relations. Both governments are attempting to rebuild a strategic partnership after legal disputes disrupted one of the region's most important energy corridors.

WhatsApp Diplomacy and Border Security: The Behind the Scenes of Baghdad-Ankara Relations

In March 2023, the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) issued a historic decision fining Turkey $1.47 billion in compensation to Iraq for allowing Kurdistan oil exports without Iraq's consent.

This decision directly led Turkey to stop exporting oil from the Kurdistan Region. 

Despite efforts to reach a solution, the issues remained pending until Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a presidential decree on July 27, 2025, officially ending the 1973 oil transport agreement between the two countries.

While a temporary extension of the agreement was seen in October 2025 for oil exports, efforts to sign a new permanent agreement have not yet materialized, despite positive signs from Turkey's energy minister in July of the same year.

Both sides have now continued to export oil on the basis of an informal agreement, while Erdogan has stressed that their main goal is to sign a comprehensive energy cooperation agreement as soon as possible.

Alongside the oil issue, the prospects for economic cooperation have expanded. A series of memoranda of understanding were signed on July 28 that show Turkey wants Iraq as a major trading and logistics hub in the region.

At the center of this rapprochement stands the “Road to Development” project; It is a $17 billion to $20 billion strategic corridor involving rail, land and port infrastructure to connect the UAE, Qatar, Iraq, Turkey and the European Union.

At a joint press conference, Prime Minister Ali Zaydi pointed to the importance of the country's geography and said that after two natural rivers, the country now needs a "third river", which is an economic river through development projects.

The importance of this project was heightened by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz that followed the February 28 Israeli-US attacks on Iran, as 80% of Iraqi oil exports were previously exported through the Gulf. Despite the financial completion of the project, it has not yet received the final approval of the Iraqi parliament, and Erdogan's upcoming visit to Baghdad is expected to resolve financial obstacles and Erbil's concerns about determining the route of the project.

Domestic uncertainty over the project came to light when Zaidi asked Transport Minister Wahab al-Hassan to sign the memorandum in front of the media. Hassan responded with a WhatsApp message that instructed Zaidi to come and sign it himself.

This scene provoked different analyses; Some analysts attributed the delay to the minister's ties to Iran's pro-Iranian Badr movement and Tehran's concerns about its diminishing regional hegemony, while journalist Osama al-Obaidi believed the minister may not have the direct authority to sign.

The issue of security is equally the backbone of bilateral relations. The use of Iraqi territory by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been a major source of concern for Ankara for years. But under the 2024 and 2025 security agreements, Iraq has expanded security cooperation with Turkey and designated the PKK as a banned organization. As the Turkish parliament considers a legal framework for the integration of former PKK cadres, Baghdad and Erbil are likely to have to take joint responsibility for preventing a security gap in areas where the PKK is withdrawing, such as Mount Sinjar and Makhmur.

On the other hand, Washington’s shadow is visible over this equation. With the presence of Thomas Barak, US ambassador to Turkey and presidential envoy to Syria and Iraq, US diplomacy treats these countries more like an interconnected arena.

Some analysts believe Washington is actively seeking to create a "balance of power" in Ankara's favor to counter Tehran's hegemony in Iraq.

Ultimately, the biggest challenge to this vision is the strength of Iranian hegemony in Iraq, while Zaydi's foreign policy is moving towards greater cooperation with the West and sees Turkey as a bridge to achieve that goal.The ICC Ruling That Changed Everything

The turning point came in March 2023, when the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ruled that Turkey had violated its bilateral pipeline agreement by allowing crude oil from Iraq's Kurdistan Region to be exported without the approval of Iraq's federal government.

The arbitration tribunal ordered Turkey to pay approximately $1.47 billion in compensation to Iraq.

The decision fundamentally altered the legal and political framework governing oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline.

Almost immediately after the ruling, Turkey suspended exports from the Kurdistan Region, bringing to a halt hundreds of thousands of barrels per day and triggering a prolonged dispute between Baghdad, Erbil, and Ankara.

The End of the 1973 Pipeline Agreement

Efforts to revive exports continued for more than two years but failed to produce a comprehensive settlement.

A major milestone came on July 27, 2025, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed a presidential decree formally terminating the 1973 Iraq-Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement, ending the legal framework that had governed bilateral pipeline cooperation for more than five decades.

Although the termination created uncertainty, it also opened the door for negotiations on a modern agreement better suited to today's political and commercial realities.

Temporary Arrangements Replace Formal Agreements

Rather than allowing energy cooperation to collapse entirely, Iraq and Turkey adopted a pragmatic approach.

A temporary understanding reached in late 2025 allowed limited oil exports to resume while negotiators continued discussions over a comprehensive replacement agreement.

Although no permanent treaty has yet been signed, both governments have reportedly continued cooperation through informal arrangements that allow exports to proceed while avoiding another prolonged disruption.

This flexible approach reflects a shared recognition that both countries benefit economically from keeping the pipeline operational.

Energy Cooperation Beyond Oil

Energy discussions now extend far beyond crude oil exports.

Turkey has repeatedly expressed interest in developing broader cooperation with Iraq in areas including:

• Natural gas development
• Electricity interconnection
• Pipeline modernization
• Infrastructure investment
• Regional energy security

Turkish officials have emphasized that a comprehensive energy partnership could transform bilateral relations from one centered primarily on transit into a broader strategic economic partnership.

For Iraq, stronger cooperation could diversify export routes, attract foreign investment, and strengthen long-term energy security.

Border Security Strengthens Political Dialogue

Energy diplomacy has increasingly become intertwined with security cooperation.

Baghdad and Ankara have significantly expanded coordination against the PKK, whose presence in northern Iraq has long been a major source of tension between the two countries.

Frequent communication between senior political and security officials has helped prevent crises from escalating while facilitating joint planning on border management and counterterrorism.

This growing trust has reportedly made it easier to discuss more sensitive economic issues, including pipeline operations and future infrastructure projects.

The Rise of "WhatsApp Diplomacy"

One of the defining characteristics of recent Baghdad-Ankara relations has been the increasing reliance on rapid, informal communication between senior officials.

Rather than waiting for formal diplomatic meetings, ministers, security officials, and advisers reportedly maintain continuous contact through encrypted messaging platforms and direct communication channels.

This "WhatsApp diplomacy" allows both governments to resolve technical disputes quickly, coordinate responses to security incidents, and maintain momentum in complex negotiations that might otherwise become stalled by bureaucracy.

While such informal diplomacy cannot replace legally binding agreements, it has become an important confidence-building mechanism during a period of significant regional uncertainty.

What Comes Next?

Despite encouraging political signals, a comprehensive energy agreement has yet to be finalized.

Negotiators still face several complex issues, including:

• Revenue-sharing mechanisms.
• Federal authority over exports.
• Pipeline operating arrangements.
• Investment guarantees.
• Long-term legal protections.

Nevertheless, recent cooperation suggests that both governments remain committed to finding a durable solution that balances Iraq's constitutional framework with Turkey's strategic energy interests.

Strategic Outlook

The evolution of Baghdad-Ankara relations illustrates how regional diplomacy is increasingly shaped by pragmatism rather than ideology. Legal disputes, border security, and energy cooperation have become deeply interconnected, requiring continuous dialogue even when formal agreements remain incomplete.

For Iraq and Turkey, the challenge now is to transform temporary understandings into a comprehensive framework that provides legal certainty, strengthens regional energy security, and supports broader economic integration. If successful, such an agreement could redefine one of the Middle East's most important strategic partnerships and provide greater stability for both countries in an increasingly volatile region.

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