After years of escalating tensions, tariffs, military rivalry, and technological warfare, the Trump–Xi summit has revived one of geopolitics’ most dangerous questions: can a rising China and a dominant United States avoid the Thucydides Trap—or is confrontation becoming inevitable?

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026— Kurdish Policy Analysis

"We don't have permanent allies and we don't have permanent enemies, only our interests are permanent, and we have to follow them." – Henry John Temple.

The root of the current Strait of Hormuz tensions is not only about shipping routes or oil prices, but also about the final collapse of the historical US concept towards Beijing. However, the 2025 National Security Strategy, released by the White House in November, says this was a historic mistake because China used the assets it accumulated to strengthen itself and compete with the West, not to become their partner.

For many years, the United States alone maintained maritime security; The fifth US ship in Manama, Bahrain, worked only to keep oil transported safely in the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of where it went. In fact, China's economic growth was based on US-protected free navigation Our warriors?" Therefore, this is a shift from an "open global system" policy to a policy of "narrow national interests" and the creation of a US counterfront towards China.

The reason for China's resumption of the Siberia Force 2 project in September 2025 was that after the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025, there were rumors in US decision-making centers that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed during the war.

In November 2025, the White House said, "The United States will always have an interest in keeping Gulf energy out of the enemy's hands, keeping the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea open, and keeping Israel safe.

For the Chinese, this was a sign of accelerating the Russian gas pipeline project and accumulating huge amounts of oil, gas and food, much more than they needed. China knew the US might attack Hormuz.

China has used Iran as its "frontline" for many years because of its geographical location and natural resources. China has provided Iran with missile technology, drones (especially machines and witness systems), and surveillance systems and facial recognition software Without China's technology chain, Hudson notes, Iran's drone industry would collapse.

Looking back, the US war against Iran is not just about regime change or nuclear projects, but about restoring relations with China. At the beginning of the war, the United States allowed countries to buy oil from Russia Not in opening the Strait of Hormuz, because this is a huge pressure on China.

According to the Washington Post, Thailand's foreign minister has complained that the United States will not help rescue Thai ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz unless Thailand buys oil and gas from the United States Great for China not being able to save its own ships and showing that it is still totally dependent on the US which it described as a “power towards weakness”.

"China has agreed not to give weapons to Iran... President Xi will give me a big hug when I go there in a few days," Trump joked on Twitter. The stranded Hormuz ships will be part of the table between Washington and Beijing.

Now everyone knows that China is in a very difficult situation, and does not want to anger Washington, because the Xi Jinping-Trump summit is scheduled to "make a new deal", so China has begun to empty its oil reserves.

Hence, the Strait of Hormuz is where “globalization” dies, the US doesn’t need to physically close the strait, it just needs to “stop protecting it”.

The Strait of Hormuz is where globalization dies. The United States doesn't need to physically close the strait, it just needs to “stop protecting it.” When “free US insurance” ends, China remains dumbfounded by energy costs oil tankers.

Will China miss the last chance?

An opportunity that will never come back!

"Nature hates space." Aristotle once said.

Although all eyes of the world are now on the Strait of Hormuz and the various operations in question; They are all "angry, glorious and great," according to Trump, but there is a question that is less important: Why doesn't China do much for Iran or other friendly countries in times of crisis?

Now let's look at the situation from a different perspective. We all know that the White House has declared war on a country without the consent of Congress or the UN Security Council It damaged the energy supply in Hormuz—an area with fuel and chemicals that are very important for Asian countries, you know how important?

Look, South Asian countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are now in the worst economic and geopolitical situation in decades. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has become a storm for them It dries up their foreign exchange reserves, and although India has coped better thanks to emergency stocks, government refineries are making huge losses (around Rs 14 per liter of solar) to avoid price hikes on citizens.

The biggest threat to South Asian countries is not only fuel, but also urea. The Strait of Hormuz is a major route for global trade in chemical fertilizers. South Asia is now entering the rice and wheat planting season Without them, another 9.1 million people in South Asia will suffer from hunger and food insecurity.

The crisis has also had a severe impact on Africa and Latin America, with countries such as Niger and Mali receiving 30 percent of their foam from the Gulf.

Here is a golden opportunity for China to show that it is the “good side”; He is a “wise big man” who wants peace and protects his partners, but Beijing has strangely chosen to remain silent, despite the fact that the countries in which it has invested have suffered the most.

The United States says it was the country that solved crises and protected global security and markets, so it became the most powerful power in history. The Europeans did not build a strong army because the United States was there. Where is the "multipolar world" they talked about? China made a strategic mistake by not taking any action in the Strait of Hormuz.

China based its entire discourse over the past decade on the idea that it was a “better alternative” to the United States, spending billions of dollars on infrastructure as part of the Belt and Road project.

But when the Hormuz crisis raises energy prices, the West (US and Europe) can leave everyone behind and buy the energy for themselves. There is no risk of hunger for them.

If China does not protect its economic partners in times of trouble, it will prove to be only a "partner of good times." Its reputation as the leader of the "global South" will be shattered.

Unlike the United States, which intervenes everywhere because it feels responsible for world peace, China cannot show strength like the United States. China is the country most dependent on globalization, but the United States is destroying it.

Finally, the vacuum created by the United States (because it no longer wants to be a free advocate of free trade) and China's silence will cause great instability in the world.

Throughout the history of human struggle, the rise of a new power and fear of the old power has always depicted war as an inevitable fate, just as Thucydides describes Athens and Sparta

Throughout the history of human struggle, the rise of a new power and fear of the old power has always described war as an inevitable fate, just as Thucydides describes Athens and Sparta This attempt to maintain security automatically creates a "security paradox", so that self-armament on one side becomes a source of destabilization on the other side and puts the world in a closed circle of military competition where the slightest mistake costs destruction. 

The failure of the liberal dream and the rise of nationalism in the equation of relations between the United States and China!

The political marriage between Washington and Beijing that began in the 1970s to weaken the Soviet Union turned into a strategy in the 1990s to "domesticate China" economically. The United States imagined that China's middle class growth would put pressure on democracy and freedom They did not want to become a copy of the West, but used Western wealth and technology as a means to end the "century of shame" and return to their historic position as a world power. 

China's physical strength against the US digital economy!

One of the fundamental changes in this conflict between China and the United States from the beginning was the understanding of the importance of "material" and the foundation of physical industry Missiles, because it has an industrial infrastructure that the United States has largely lost, even the idea of ​​returning Chinese factories to American territory, which is seen as a quick protection strategy.

Strait of Hormuz or competition on the Pacific!

If we look closely at the big equation, geopolitical logic says that the US war in the Middle East, especially against Iranian hegemony, is essentially part of a larger war against China Hormuz by the United States means capturing China's energy artery. Any pressure on Tehran will directly put pressure on China's economy, which has made the conflict between the two powers not only in Asian waters, but all strategic points in the world.

The beginning of the Cold War for a forced marriage on the verge of explosion!

Today, more than ever, the US-China relationship has reached a stage where there is both a logical need for each other and a fundamental hostility between them. This is a struggle between two different worldviews; One wants to maintain its hegemony and the other wants to create a multipolar world in which itself is at least Asia's biggest. High-level diplomatic meetings, rather than an attempt at lasting peace, are just a maneuver to delay the big explosion hidden in conflicting interests They are placed on top of each other and wait for a signal to change the balance.

In this equation, it is important to understand that the US-China conflict is not just a trade competition, but a change in the world system. What we are seeing now is the second Cold War Each other is the only reason that has so far limited the war from the military to the economic and technological fields.