Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj , Sulaimani, Iraq, 04 May , 2026  — From shifting power balances to disruptive leadership, the forces driving today’s geopolitical instability were years in the making—and are now accelerating.

A World Out of Balance

On May 4, 2026, a revealing conversation unfolded on the podcast of Glenn Diesen, where the focus was not on the latest war headline—but on a deeper question: What actually went wrong with the global order?

At a time when conflicts—from the Middle East to Eastern Europe—dominate headlines, the discussion deliberately avoided tactical details and instead examined the structural forces reshaping the international system. The conclusion was stark: today’s instability is not accidental. It is the product of long-building transformations now reaching a breaking point.

The First Shock: The End of Unipolarity

For nearly three decades after the Cold War, the United States operated in what analysts called a unipolar moment—a system in which Washington held unmatched economic, military, and political dominance. That era is now effectively over.

Since around 2017, the international system has undergone a profound shift toward multipolarity—a structure in which multiple great powers compete and cooperate simultaneously. At the center of this transformation is the rise of China. China’s expansion has not only been economic but strategic:

• Massive investments in global infrastructure
• Rapid military modernization
• Expanding diplomatic influence across Asia, Africa, and beyond

This shift has forced the U.S. to reconsider its global priorities, leading to a strategic reorientation known as the “pivot to Asia.”

The Pivot That Reshaped Everything

Washington’s pivot toward Asia was intended to contain China’s rise—but it came with unintended consequences. As American attention and resources shifted:

• Europe was forced to take on greater security responsibility
• Middle Eastern dynamics became more volatile
• Global alliances faced new uncertainty

For European powers, the shift created a dilemma: remain aligned with Washington’s strategy or pursue greater strategic autonomy. The result has been fragmentation—within alliances that once appeared solid.

The Second Shock: Trump’s Return

If multipolarity changed the structure of the system, the return of Donald Trump has disrupted how it operates. Trump’s first presidency introduced elements of unpredictability, but many of his more disruptive instincts were constrained by institutional resistance. Since his return to the White House in January 2025, those constraints appear significantly weakened. The result has been what some analysts describe as a geopolitical “wrecking ball.”

The Wrecking Ball Effect

Trump’s second-term approach has intensified several trends:

1. Pressure on Allies

Traditional allies—particularly in Europe—have faced increased demands on defense spending, trade alignment, and strategic positioning.

2. Transactional Diplomacy

Foreign policy has shifted from long-term alliances to short-term deals, reducing predictability in international relations.

3. Escalatory Signaling

Whether in trade disputes or military positioning, the U.S. has adopted a more confrontational tone, raising the risk of miscalculation. These changes have amplified the instability already created by multipolarity.

Europe’s Strategic Dilemma

Caught between a rising China and an unpredictable United States, Europe finds itself in a precarious position. Key challenges include:

• Balancing economic ties with China against security ties with the U.S.
• Responding to regional conflicts without unified leadership
• Managing internal political divisions

The result is a continent struggling to define its role in a rapidly changing world.

Why the Iran War Is a Symptom—Not the Cause

One of the most striking elements of the podcast discussion was the relative lack of focus on the Iran conflict. That omission was deliberate. Conflicts like the one involving Iran are not the root problem—they are symptoms of a deeper systemic shift. In a multipolar world:

• Regional powers act more assertively
• Global rule become less enforceable
• Crises escalate more quickly

The Iran situation, therefore, is not an anomaly—it is a preview of what future conflicts may look like.

A More Dangerous System

The transition from unipolarity to multipolarity does not automatically lead to instability—but the way it is being managed matters. Today’s system is characterized by:

• Higher uncertainty: No single power can enforce order
• Greater competition: Rivalries are more intense and widespread
• Weaker institutions: Global governance structures struggle to adapt

When combined with disruptive leadership, these factors create a volatile mix.

The Risk of Strategic Overreach

One of the key dangers facing the United States is strategic overextension. Attempting to:

• Contain China
• Manage European alliances
• Engage in Middle Eastern conflicts

simultaneously places enormous strain on resources and decision-making. History suggests that great powers often face their greatest challenges not from external threats—but from the difficulty of balancing competing priorities.

The Illusion of Control

For decades, U.S. policymakers operated under the assumption that global events could be shaped—and controlled—through military, economic, and diplomatic tools. That assumption is now being tested. In a multipolar world:

• Outcomes are less predictable
• Smaller actors have greater influence
• Escalation can occur rapidly and unexpectedly

The result is a system where control is increasingly elusive.

What Comes Next?

The current trajectory suggests a period of prolonged instability. Key trends to watch include:

• Continued U.S.-China competition
• Shifting alliances in Europe and Asia
• Increased frequency of regional conflicts
• Greater economic fragmentation

None of these developments are inevitable—but all are becoming more likely.

The Bottom Line

The question is not simply what went wrong—but whether the system can adapt. Two forces are reshaping the world:

1. The structural shift to multipolarity
2. The disruptive impact of Trump’s second presidency

Together, they are creating a geopolitical environment defined by uncertainty, competition, and risk. The chaos we see today is not a temporary crisis. It is the early stage of a new global order—one that is still being written.

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