Kurdish Policy Analysis

The latest reports of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile and drone strikes against Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq indicate that Tehran is pursuing a sustained military strategy rather than conducting isolated retaliatory operations. If the reported figure of 95 attacks since the end of the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict is accurate, it suggests that Iran has institutionalised cross-border operations as a routine element of its security doctrine.

At first glance, the attacks appear consistent with Iran's long-standing objective of preventing Kurdish opposition movements—including the Komala Party of Toilers of Kurdistan and the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI)—from using Iraqi Kurdistan as a staging ground for political or military activities. Tehran has repeatedly accused these organisations of supporting unrest inside Iran and regards them as direct threats to national security. However, the persistence and frequency of the strikes indicate that Iran's objectives extend beyond merely disrupting insurgent capabilities.

As I argued in my previous analysis on the political and religious geography of East Kurdistan, understanding the fragmented landscape of Iranian Kurdish parties is essential to explaining why Tehran continues to differentiate between various Kurdish organisations and adjust its military strategy accordingly.

The reported targeting of a military facility affiliated with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is particularly significant. Unlike the Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, the PUK is one of the two dominant political parties governing the Kurdistan Region and has historically maintained relatively pragmatic relations with Tehran. If the reported strike indeed targeted a PUK-linked military site, it may represent an escalation designed to pressure local authorities to enforce stricter controls over Iranian Kurdish groups operating within their territory. It also sends a message that Iran is willing to expand the scope of its military operations if it believes regional actors are failing to address its security concerns.

Equally notable is the increasing reliance on drones alongside ballistic missiles. Iran has steadily integrated unmanned aerial systems into its regional military strategy because they offer lower-cost, more flexible, and politically manageable options for conducting cross-border operations. Frequent drone strikes also enable Tehran to maintain constant pressure on opposition groups while limiting the diplomatic fallout associated with larger missile attacks.

The absence of reported casualties in the latest strikes should not obscure their broader strategic purpose. Many of these operations appear intended to maintain psychological pressure, disrupt organisational activities, and demonstrate Iran's ability to strike targets at will inside Iraqi territory. Even when camps are evacuated beforehand, the repeated attacks force opposition groups to relocate, disperse resources, and remain in a constant state of operational uncertainty.

For the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the continued strikes present an increasingly difficult political dilemma. The KRG has repeatedly condemned violations of Iraqi sovereignty while simultaneously facing pressure from both Baghdad and Tehran to limit the activities of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. Preventing further escalation requires balancing internal Kurdish politics, relations with the federal Iraqi government, and strategic ties with neighbouring Iran—a complex equation with limited room for manoeuvre.

From a regional perspective, these operations also reflect Iran's broader post-conflict security posture following its confrontation with Israel. Rather than reducing military activity after the ceasefire, Tehran appears determined to reinforce deterrence across multiple fronts, signalling that domestic and border security remain central priorities despite wider regional tensions.

Unless a comprehensive security arrangement emerges between Tehran, Baghdad, and the Kurdistan Regional Government, cross-border missile and drone operations are likely to continue. The pattern suggests that Iran increasingly views persistent military pressure—not diplomatic engagement—as the most effective means of containing perceived threats along its western frontier.Informed sources have told IranWire that missile and drone strikes by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against positions held by Iranian Kurdish parties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are continuing. According to the information, the latest attacks on Monday, July 27, targeted bases belonging to the Komala Party of Toilers of Kurdistan, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), and a military facility affiliated with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

These repeated cross-border strikes also demonstrate that achieving military deterrence does not necessarily translate into lasting stability. As discussed in my earlier article, The PKK's Odyssey and Peace, the greatest challenge in regional conflicts often begins after active hostilities end, when states attempt to reshape the political and security landscape through sustained pressure rather than open warfare.

According to information obtained by IranWire, at around 2:00 a.m. on Monday, the IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on a camp belonging to the Komala Party of Toilers of Kurdistan in the “Doli Alana” region.

Amjad Hossein Panahi, a member of the leadership of the Komala Party of Toilers of Kurdistan, told IranWire that the strike marked the 95th missile and drone attack by the IRGC against the party’s positions since the end of the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.

Meanwhile, an informed source within the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan told IranWire that the IRGC had targeted the party’s positions in the “Jashnakan” region of Erbil province using drones the previous day.

According to the source, the camp had been evacuated before the strike, resulting in no casualties or injuries among KDPI forces.

Informed sources in the Kurdistan Region also told IranWire that the IRGC had simultaneously targeted a military facility affiliated with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in the “Qalachualan” area of Sulaymaniyah province.

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