Kurdish Policy Analysis

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis

Saudi Arabia and Iraq: Can Strategic Partnership Survive Rising Regional Tensions?

Saudi Arabia and Iraq have transformed diplomatic ties into strategic cooperation, but escalating regional crises threaten to turn partnership into confrontation.

Saudi air strikes on Hashdi Shaabi positions in Iraq have become the subject of media coverage, as this is the first time Riyadh has officially announced its direct military participation in Iraqi territory.

The move has raised questions among observers about what will happen to the political situation in Baghdad, Prime Minister Ali Zayed's policies and Iraq's relations with the United States and the Gulf countries.

Saudi Arabia's involvement with the United States in the attacks is a major change in Riyadh's stance after months of restraint, AFP reported.

Although Saudi Arabia says it was in self-defense, experts question whether Riyadh has changed its conscious policy towards Iran or simply wanted to send a warning message. According to Toby Matthiessen, an expert at the University of Bristol, this is an obvious phenomenon of Saudi military involvement.

Meanwhile, Javier Bourdon, a researcher at the University of Lancaster, says Saudi Arabia still wants to appear as a peaceful and moderate country and does not intend to escalate the war, but only wants to prevent further attacks.

He believes the constant attacks and threat to maritime trade routes were the reasons for this change. Other experts say Riyadh has tried to calm relations with Tehran in recent years, but recent developments show that Saudi leaders believe Iran needs a clearer message and that Iraq is more important to Riyadh militarily and politically than Yemen.

Experts say the United States and Saudi Arabia support the idea that weapons should be in the hands of the Iraqi state, and the attacks showed support for that goal.

Kenzie Disuki, an expert on Saudi-Iranian relations, says Saudi Arabia has refrained from attacking Iranian territory, so the decision is more of a show of strength than a massive war.

Riyadh hopes to prevent further attacks on its territory, but some analysts warn that participating in US attacks could drag Saudi Arabia deeper into regional conflict.

Iraq, which has been trying to avoid proxy wars for years, may be the main loser. After the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, successive governments in Baghdad tried hard not to turn Iraq into a battlefield and instead a center for diplomacy, but new attacks risk returning Iraq to the era of liquidation.

In response, Mohannad Oqabi of the Hashdi Shaabi described the Saudi attacks as a political mistake and denied any involvement of the Hashdi Shaabi in the attacks on Saudi oil facilities.

Former Iranian Ambassador to Baghdad Hassan Kazemi-Qommi also suspected outside involvement in the attacks. According to the report, despite the truth of these statements, events show how quickly Iraq is becoming a competitive arena for foreign forces.

The British website notes that these tensions could continue the invasion and US military presence and complicate Baghdad's demands for US withdrawal. The cancellation of the Iraqi prime minister's visit to Riyadh also poses a threat to Gulf investment in Iraq. The report concludes that managing the crisis is a difficult test for al-Zaidi, as his goals to attract foreign investment depend on regional stability and Iraq's future will determine whether it becomes a bridge or a front line of war.

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#SaudiArabia #Iraq #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #RegionalSecurity