From the shadows to supreme power: why Iran chose Ahmad Vahidi to lead its confrontation with the United States

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By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis Who Is Ahmad Vahidi? The Secretive IRGC Commander now shaping Iran's confrontation with the United States From the founding of the Quds Force to commanding the Revolutionary Guards, Ahmad Vahidi's rise signals a new era in Iran's military-led decision-making. As Tehran braces for a prolonged confrontation with Washington, one of Iran's most secretive and hardline military figures has emerged at the center of power—signaling a dramatic shift in how the Islamic Republic intends to wage its geopolitical struggle. Who is Ahmad Vahidi? Explore the rise of Iran's IRGC commander and how his growing influence could reshape Tehran's strategy toward the United States and the Middle East. For decades, Ahmad Vahidi remained largely behind the scenes, shaping Iran's military doctrine and regional strategy away from the public spotlight. Today, however, he stands at the heart of Iran's national security apparatus, overs...
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Retreat from the brink of War: Trump's five threats to Iran's economic infrastructure


By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis

Donald Trump's five threats against Iran's economic infrastructure reveal an unpredictable decision-making style that continues to shape U.S. foreign policy and regional stability.

Since the outbreak of military tensions on February 28, 2026, relations between Washington and Tehran have experienced an unprecedented period of turmoil and uncertainty.

In this context, I have noted that US President Donald Trump has made at least five direct and major threats to strike Iran's economic infrastructure - especially after creating obstacles to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz - but has backtracked in recent hours.

Trump's five threats to Iran

1. First Warning (March 21, 2026): Last 48-hour opportunity

On March 21, Trump issued his first strong warning to Tehran and set a 48-hour deadline; He said Iran's factories and electricity grid would be completely destroyed if free navigation was not allowed in the Strait of Hormuz. But on March 23, Trump extended the deadline for another five days, saying the talks were going well.

2. Warning 2 (March 30, 2026): Targeting Kharg Island

A week later, Trump announced a 10-day grace period and openly threatened to bomb Kharg Island (the hub for more than 90 percent of Iran's oil exports) and water desalination plants. This threat ended with a ceasefire on April

3. Warning 3 (June 11, 2026): Control of oil facilities

After Iran violated the ceasefire, Trump threatened military control of Kharg Island and a total seizure of Iranian oil facilities. However, after secret talks in the last hours, the offensive was halted and a memorandum of understanding was signed on 18 June.

4. Warning 4 (July 7, 2026): Paralyzing attack and the “bridge versus ship” equation

After problems with the implementation of the memorandum, the United States launched a limited 13-day offensive against southern Iran. On July 22, Trump introduced a new equation: "For every ship that Iran attacks, the United States will bomb a bridge or a power plant on the outskirts of the capital. However, the widespread threats were not carried out.

5. Warning 5 (July 31, 2026): Carving out opportunities for diplomacy

In the latest development, Trump expressed the decision to launch a massive attack on energy facilities for the weekend (August 1). But on August 2, 2026, the attacks were abruptly cancelled. The move followed mediation by Saudi Arabia and several regional countries as Washington and Tehran reached a framework for a quick diplomatic agreement on its nuclear program and the liberalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Interpretation and evaluation; A policy based on individual decisions

Donald Trump's decision-making reflects a temperamental, unusual and unpredictable personality. Trump makes most of his decisions and threats individually and relies less on official decision-making institutions in the United States. This has caused deep uncertainty and instability in US foreign policy at this stage, because the direction of events depends only on one person's position and decision.

#Trump #Iran #Geopolitics #USForeignPolicy #MiddleEast

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