By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj

Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan — 25 May 2026

As Washington and Tehran edge toward a possible agreement, the deeper geopolitical shift may be Israel’s diminishing ability to dictate U.S. regional strategy.

Although there is no official and final agreement between the United States and Iran, and in this analysis I will try to rely only on various reports, taking into account that it is very difficult to believe the statements of both sides.

If an agreement is reached, it will probably be reached with minimal Israeli interference, because Israel never wants a US agreement with Iran. Israel has been replaced by other countries such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and others Public statements by Trump and Netanyahu say the opposite.

Now let's analyze the reality of the war and describe it according to the goals that Netanyahu himself set out at the beginning of Operation Lion's Roar: to overthrow the regime, destroy Iran's nuclear program, and eliminate Iran's ballistic threat. 

So far, and despite the strong blows to the Iranian regime – including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and several other senior officials – the regime itself has survived the 40 days of war There are groups in the country that now run the affairs – all of whom are members of the Revolutionary Guards – and they are more extreme and insistent on maintaining their power.

There is a very important point to understand – in the Iranian regime's view, “survival means victory”, especially after fighting against two such great military powers (Israel and the United States). Moreover, if more than $25 billion is reportedly released and transferred to Iran, it will help them rebuild, strengthen their positions and ease economic pressures. I have not yet mentioned the possibility of lifting some sanctions Their economy will collapse completely, but this huge amount of money that is now likely to be released will help the Iranians and keep the bad scenario away from them.

Iran's nuclear infrastructure has suffered heavy military blows during the war. It is true that nuclear facilities have been attacked and set the Iranians back for years, but – this “answer” is very important – the agreement will matter if the Iranians keep the 450 kilograms Whenever they decide to jump to nuclear weapons, the process is not too complicated for the Iranians, and depends more on political decision and great courage than technical ability, because they have the ability now The biggest problem for Israel is the nuclear threat. Although Iran's nuclear program has been hit hard, it has not yet been destroyed, and without removing the 450 kilograms, the next war is on the doorstep.

Israel and the United States have severely damaged Iran's ballistic system infrastructure, related industries and launch pads. However, the Iranians appear to have prepared themselves from the beginning, through tunnels, “missile cities” deep in the mountains and various infrastructures They are busy repairing the entrances and exits to the underground “missile cities” damaged during the war, so anyone who has sold the illusion in recent years that Iran's ballistic capabilities can be completely ended militarily has turned out to be untrue The problem with “capabilities” is that you can strike them, even very heavy ones, but they can almost always be repaired, and that is exactly what Iran has been eager to do since the ceasefire was announced in mid-April Iran's ballistic missiles to Israel, the Gulf and the US front have not been "destroyed" at all, and I doubt that after this stage, if an agreement is reached, they can be completely destroyed militarily.

The military cooperation between Israel and the United States was tactically amazing. The division of roles and geography of the war has unprecedented messages and will have amazing consequences in the future. Their coordination and action plan was much more complex than people think. Of course, militarily I think it was sleepless. Air dominance in war is always amazing, and this war is a great proof of the crazy and unique ability of Israel and the United States Looking at the US and Israeli strategy for the war, I think the US has used Israel as the head of the spear, because it seems that strategically, Netanyahu has completely and dangerously subjugated Israel He has tied their hands – there is no more appropriate phrase, note – Trump recently announced an “extension of the ceasefire with Lebanon” – but on the ground this is completely unrealistic because Hezbollah continues to attack Israel with drones. Because Trump has forbidden Netanyahu! Finally, I think if an agreement is reached, it will be clearer to everyone that we will see a stronger Israel and a more violent Iran (but without nails and fingers).

#Iran #Israel #Trump #Netanyahu #MiddleEast #USIran #Geopolitics #SaudiArabia #Pakistan #AbrahamAccords #Tehran #Washington #NuclearDeal #MiddleEastPolitics #IsraelIran #ForeignPolicy #GlobalSecurity #OilMarkets #Diplomacy #BreakingNews