The Iraqi oil trap and its paradox: A rentier economy amidst geopolitical shocks

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In an economy dependent on oil exports, and with the disruption of crude oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iranian war, the core of the problem lies not only in the volume of exports and the revenues generated from them, but also in how these revenues are managed, and in the amount of spending that depletes them. On September 22, 2026, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi told The New York Times that Iraq had lost nearly $60 billion in oil revenue due to the war with Iran. For approximately two months, Iraq was unable to export 90% of its oil, while 90% of its economy depended on crude oil exports. Before June 2025, when the first round of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran erupted, the Central Bank of Iraq’s reserves had exceeded $110 billion, but by October 2026 they had fallen to less than $60 billion. Although Zaidi’s government managed to balance global polarization and geopolitical tensions during its first five months in office, the biggest problem was the i...
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About the author

 


Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj is a researcher, geopolitical analyst, and founder of Kurdish Policy Analysis, an independent platform dedicated to in-depth analysis of the Middle East, Kurdistan, international security, energy geopolitics, and global strategic affairs.

He holds a Ph.D. in Arts and Humanities, specializing in the literature of war, interventionism, and anti-interventionism. His academic research explores how literature reflects armed conflict, foreign intervention, political violence, and the human consequences of war, bridging literary studies with international politics and security analysis.

Since its founding, Kurdish Policy Analysis has published more than 1,000 original analyses covering regional conflicts, diplomacy, energy security, military affairs, and Kurdish politics.

Kurdish Policy Analysis serves policymakers, diplomats, journalists, academics, students, researchers, business leaders, and readers seeking evidence-based analysis of the Middle East.

Drawing on both academic scholarship and regional expertise, Dr. Faraj publishes evidence-based analysis on Iraq, the Kurdistan Region, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and the wider Middle East. His work examines evolving geopolitical dynamics, military strategy, energy security, diplomacy, and regional power competition, with the goal of providing readers with clear, balanced, and accessible insights into complex international developments.

Since founding Kurdish Policy Analysis, he has authored more than 1,000 articles covering regional conflicts, security challenges, geoeconomics, and foreign policy. His writing combines rigorous research with practical geopolitical analysis to support policymakers, researchers, journalists, students, and readers interested in Middle Eastern affairs.

His research interests include:

  • Middle East geopolitics and international relations
  • Security and strategic studies
  • War and conflict literature
  • Interventionism and anti-interventionism
  • Energy geopolitics and geoeconomics
  • Kurdish politics and regional governance
  • Foreign policy analysis and diplomacy

Through Kurdish Policy Analysis, Dr. Faraj aims to promote informed debate by delivering independent, research-driven analysis of the political and security developments shaping the Middle East and beyond.

Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj's analysis has been cited by international media and specialist energy publications, including Energy Intelligence, covering developments in Iraq, the Kurdistan Region, regional energy markets, and geopolitics.

Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Mohammed is the founder and editor of Kurdish Policy Analysis, specializing in the geopolitics, security, and energy affairs of the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, Iran, and the wider Middle East. His work has been featured by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and he has been quoted by Energy Intelligence and KirkukNow for his analysis of regional political, security, and energy developments.

Selected Publication

Since its founding, Kurdish Policy Analysis has published more than 1,400 original analyses covering regional conflicts, diplomacy, energy security, military affairs, and Kurdish politics.

Our editorial mission is to go beyond breaking news by delivering accurate reporting, strategic insights, and objective analysis that help readers understand the broader implications of regional and global events. Every article is produced with a commitment to factual accuracy, credible sources, and independent editorial judgment, ensuring that policymakers, researchers, journalists, students, and readers worldwide can rely on Kurdish Policy Analysis as a trusted source for informed perspectives on one of the world's most strategically significant regions.

We publish analysis on:

  • Kurdish political developments across Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran
  • Regional conflicts and security dynamics
  • International relations shaping the Middle East
  • Energy, trade, and strategic infrastructure
  • Governance, identity, and historical context
  • Media narratives and information warfare

We aim to bridge the gap between fast news cycles and long-term geopolitical understanding.


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