The Iraqi oil trap and its paradox: A rentier economy amidst geopolitical shocks

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In an economy dependent on oil exports, and with the disruption of crude oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iranian war, the core of the problem lies not only in the volume of exports and the revenues generated from them, but also in how these revenues are managed, and in the amount of spending that depletes them. On September 22, 2026, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi told The New York Times that Iraq had lost nearly $60 billion in oil revenue due to the war with Iran. For approximately two months, Iraq was unable to export 90% of its oil, while 90% of its economy depended on crude oil exports. Before June 2025, when the first round of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran erupted, the Central Bank of Iraq’s reserves had exceeded $110 billion, but by October 2026 they had fallen to less than $60 billion. Although Zaidi’s government managed to balance global polarization and geopolitical tensions during its first five months in office, the biggest problem was the i...
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Vision


Vision

At Kurdish Policy Analysis, our vision is to become the leading English-language platform for deep, insightful, and actionable analysis of Kurdish politics, strategy, and regional influence in the Middle East. We aim to illuminate the often-overlooked complexities of Kurdistan and its interactions with neighboring states, global powers, and international institutions.

We envision a world where policymakers, journalists, academics, and engaged global citizens can access clear, evidence-based insights into the Kurdish regions — their politics, security challenges, economic developments, and strategic calculations. Our goal is to bridge the gap between local realities and global understanding, helping decision-makers and the public grasp why developments in Kurdistan matter far beyond its borders.

Through rigorous research, careful analysis, and timely reporting, we strive to:

  • Inform Global Policy: Provide accurate, nuanced analysis that supports strategic decision-making at regional and international levels.
  • Amplify Underrepresented Voices: Highlight perspectives from Kurdish communities that are rarely heard in global discourse.
  • Promote Awareness and Understanding: Break down complex geopolitical, economic, and security developments into insights accessible to an international audience.
  • Encourage Constructive Dialogue: Foster informed discussion around Kurdish affairs and their wider impact on Middle Eastern and global politics.

Our vision is bold: a world where the Kurdish story is understood not as a peripheral conflict, but as a critical component of Middle Eastern strategy, stability, and international relations.

 Mission Statement of Kurdish Policy Analysis

Kurdish Insights for the World: Clear, Bold, and Essential Analysis of Politics, Security, and Influence.

Kurdish Policy Analysis is dedicated to providing rigorous, English‑language insights on the geopolitical, economic, security, and strategic issues shaping Kurdistan and its role in Middle Eastern affairs. Our mission is to bridge the gap between local realities and global understanding by offering evidence‑based analysis that goes beyond headlines and simplistic narratives — from energy politics and conflict impact to regional diplomacy and global market risks. We aim to inform policymakers, researchers, journalists, and engaged readers worldwide about the evolving dynamics in Kurdish regions and why they matter for international politics and strategic decision‑making.

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