The Iraqi oil trap and its paradox: A rentier economy amidst geopolitical shocks

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In an economy dependent on oil exports, and with the disruption of crude oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iranian war, the core of the problem lies not only in the volume of exports and the revenues generated from them, but also in how these revenues are managed, and in the amount of spending that depletes them. On September 22, 2026, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi told The New York Times that Iraq had lost nearly $60 billion in oil revenue due to the war with Iran. For approximately two months, Iraq was unable to export 90% of its oil, while 90% of its economy depended on crude oil exports. Before June 2025, when the first round of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran erupted, the Central Bank of Iraq’s reserves had exceeded $110 billion, but by October 2026 they had fallen to less than $60 billion. Although Zaidi’s government managed to balance global polarization and geopolitical tensions during its first five months in office, the biggest problem was the i...

As Featured In / Media Recognition & Citations

Media Recognition

  • Featured by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) for my contribution to the Sorani Kurdish translation of Michael Rubin's Kurdistan Rising. AEI acknowledged my contribution and published an excerpt from my introduction to the Kurdish edition.
    Source: American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
  • Quoted by KirkukNow, an independent multilingual news organization, for expert analysis on political and security developments in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
    Source: KirkukNow
  • Quoted by Energy Intelligence, a leading global energy and geopolitical intelligence publication, for analysis on energy and geopolitical developments affecting Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
    Source: Energy Intelligence, and Energy Intelligence. 

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