From Iraq to Gaza to Tehran, Washington’s “forever war” doctrine is colliding with a new Middle East reality

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj

Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan — 18 May 2026

The United States is drifting toward another long confrontation with Iran as decades of failed Middle East interventions reshape the global balance of power. From Iraq to Tehran, America’s forever war system may be entering its most dangerous phase yet.

For more than two decades, the United States has tried to dominate the Middle East through military power.

Afghanistan.

Iraq.

Syria.

Libya.

Yemen.

And now increasingly, Iran.

Each intervention was presented as temporary.
Each war was framed as necessary.
Each escalation was described as defensive.

Yet the result has been the same every time:

more instability,
more militias,
more regional fragmentation,
and a global order drifting closer to permanent conflict.

Today, Washington and Tehran are locked in a dangerous geopolitical stalemate that neither side appears capable of fully winning — but neither side is willing to abandon.

This is no longer simply about Iran’s nuclear program.

It is about the collapse of American unipolar power in the Middle East.

And the consequences could reshape the entire global system.

The “Forever War” Never Actually Ended

After the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan, many Americans believed the era of endless wars was over.

It wasn’t.

The machinery simply evolved.

Military pressure became sanctions.
Occupation became proxy warfare.
Large-scale invasions became targeted strikes, covert operations, cyberwarfare, and economic strangulation.

But the strategic logic remained unchanged:
maintain dominance,
contain rivals,
and prevent hostile regional powers from escaping American influence.

Analysts increasingly warn that the United States is drifting back toward another open-ended confrontation in the Middle East — this time with Iran at the center.

The problem for Washington is that Iran is not Iraq.

Iran possesses:

• a far larger population,
• deep regional proxy networks,
• missile capabilities,
• strategic geography around the Strait of Hormuz,
• and decades of experience surviving sanctions and asymmetric warfare.

Even American hard power has struggled to break Tehran’s strategic resilience.

Why Iran Became the Ultimate Target

Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Tehran has represented one of the few major regional powers openly hostile to American hegemony in the Middle East.

That hostility transformed Iran into a permanent geopolitical obsession in Washington.

Successive US administrations attempted to:

• isolate Iran economically,
• weaken its regional alliances,
• limit its nuclear ambitions,
• and undermine its influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.

But decades of pressure failed to produce regime collapse.

Instead, Iran adapted.

Sanctions strengthened underground economic networks.
Proxy warfare expanded Iranian influence cheaply.
Regional chaos after the Iraq invasion gave Tehran enormous strategic opportunities.

Ironically, America’s destruction of Saddam Hussein — Iran’s greatest regional enemy — dramatically expanded Iranian power inside Iraq itself.

The result is one of the great geopolitical ironies of the 21st century:

Washington spent trillions trying to contain Iran while simultaneously helping create the conditions for Iranian regional expansion.

The Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Economic Choke Point

At the center of this confrontation lies one of the most strategically important waterways on Earth: the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s geographic position gives it leverage over global energy flows, particularly oil shipments moving through the Gulf.

That leverage is why Washington cannot simply ignore Tehran.

Recent tensions have again raised fears of economic disruption, energy shocks, and prolonged instability in global markets.

And unlike previous conflicts, the geopolitical environment has changed dramatically.

The United States is no longer confronting Iran in a fully unipolar world.

Now there is China.

China Is Quietly Benefiting From America’s Iran Crisis

While Washington remains trapped in military escalation cycles, Beijing is exploiting the geopolitical vacuum.

US intelligence assessments reportedly warn that China is gaining strategic advantages from the Iran conflict across diplomatic, economic, and energy sectors.

This matters enormously.

Every prolonged Middle Eastern conflict drains American military resources, damages global confidence in US leadership, and pushes regional states to diversify alliances.

China increasingly presents itself as:

• a mediator,
• an economic partner,
• and a stable alternative to Western military interventionism.

The longer America remains entangled in confrontation with Iran, the more space Beijing gains to expand influence across Eurasia and the Gulf.

In other words:

Iran is no longer merely a regional issue.

It has become part of the global power struggle between Washington and Beijing.

America’s Real Crisis Is Strategic Exhaustion

The deeper problem facing the United States is not military weakness.

It is strategic exhaustion.

After decades of intervention, many Americans no longer believe endless foreign wars produce stability.

Online discussions increasingly reflect fears that another Iran conflict could become another catastrophic quagmire similar to Iraq or Afghanistan.

Even critics inside Western policy circles now openly question whether the United States still possesses a coherent long-term Middle East strategy.

The contradictions are becoming impossible to hide:

• Washington wants regional stability,
• while supporting policies that generate escalation;
• it wants to reduce military burdens,
• while expanding deterrence structures;
• it seeks energy security,
• while risking conflict in the Gulf.

This is not sustainable.

The Middle East Is Entering a New Era

The old Middle East order is collapsing.

For decades, the region revolved around overwhelming American military dominance backed by Gulf monarchies and Israeli strategic superiority.

Now multiple shifts are reshaping the balance:

• Iran’s regional networks remain intact,
• Gulf states increasingly diversify toward China,
• Israel faces mounting regional tensions,
• Iraq remains fragmented,
• and non-state actors wield unprecedented power.

The result is not a stable multipolar order.

It is strategic fragmentation.

And fragmented systems are often the most dangerous because no single actor can fully control escalation.

The Most Dangerous Outcome Is Not Total War — It’s Endless War

Many analysts focus on whether the US and Iran will enter direct large-scale war.

But the more likely scenario may be worse:

a permanent gray-zone conflict with no resolution.

Endless sanctions.
Proxy warfare.
Cyberattacks.
Economic disruption.
Periodic strikes.
Regional destabilization.
Global market shocks.

A war without formal declaration.
A conflict without victory.
A crisis without conclusion.

The modern Middle East increasingly operates inside that reality already.

And history suggests these unresolved conflicts rarely stay contained forever.

The Empire Trap

The United States now faces the classic dilemma of declining great powers:

it cannot fully dominate the region anymore,
but it also cannot easily withdraw from it.

That trap creates permanent escalation pressure.

Every retreat appears like weakness.
Every escalation creates new instability.
Every military operation generates new enemies.
Every crisis demands another intervention.

This is how empires become trapped inside self-perpetuating wars.

And Iran may become the ultimate test of whether Washington can escape that cycle — or whether the Middle East will remain locked inside another generation of permanent conflict.

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