Dana Gas's Baghdad gas deal signals Iraq's slow break from Iran's energy grip

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    By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis The one-year agreement is modest in size but could reshape Iraq's gas market, strengthen the Kurdistan Region's strategic role, and gradually erode Tehran's decades-long energy leverage.  Dana Gas's one-year gas agreement with Baghdad could mark the beginning of Iraq's gradual shift away from dependence on Iranian gas while elevating the Kurdistan Region's strategic importance. For years, Iran has occupied an indispensable position in Iraq's energy sector. Every summer, when electricity demand surges, Iraqi officials have relied heavily on Iranian natural gas to keep power stations operating despite recurring supply disruptions, sanctions complications, and political tensions. That long-standing dependency may now be beginning to change. Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum have signed an agreement with Iraq's Ministry of Electricity to supply 100 million standard cubic feet per day (100 MMscf/d) of n...
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The Iran Triangle: Tehran's new strategy to keep the Middle East on the brink


Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis

The Iran Triangle: How Tehran Is Reshaping Its Regional Strategy After Assad

After Assad's fall, Iran's regional strategy has evolved around Hezbollah, Iraq's PMF, and the Houthis. What does the emerging "Iran Triangle" mean for Middle East security?

With Assad gone, Iran's regional project has not collapsed—it has evolved into a three-pronged network stretching from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen.

The Iran Triangle and the Battle for the State

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime dealt a major strategic blow to Iran, severing the land bridge that once connected Tehran to the Mediterranean. Yet instead of abandoning its regional ambitions, Iran appears to have adapted its strategy.

According to regional reports and diplomatic discussions, Tehran has reportedly conveyed a series of warnings to neighboring states and international actors:

  • If the Syrian army enters Lebanon, factions of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) could cross into Syria.
  • If any future U.S. military campaign against Iran evolves into a ground war, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its allied militias could open additional fronts against Gulf states by land or sea.
  • If Israel significantly expands its military campaign, Hezbollah could launch whatever missile and drone capabilities it still possesses.

Whether these scenarios ultimately materialize or not, they illustrate how Iran views its network of regional allies—not as separate organizations, but as components of a coordinated security architecture.

From the "Axis of Resistance" to the "Iran Triangle"

The fall of Assad fundamentally altered the geography of Iran's regional strategy.

For years, Syria served as the logistical corridor linking Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon while facilitating the movement of personnel, weapons, and supplies across the Levant.

With that corridor disrupted, Iran appears increasingly dependent on three principal pillars:

  • Hezbollah in Lebanon
  • The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq
  • The Houthis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen

Together, these three actors form what could be described as an "Iran Triangle"—a geographically dispersed but strategically interconnected network capable of exerting military and political pressure across multiple theaters simultaneously.

Unlike conventional alliances, critics argue that these organizations function within a broader Iranian strategic framework, allowing Tehran to influence events across the region without direct military confrontation.

A Multi-Front Deterrence Strategy

The significance of this triangle lies not merely in its military capabilities but in its ability to create simultaneous crises.

A conflict involving Iran could quickly expand beyond its borders through coordinated actions across several fronts:

  • Rocket attacks from Lebanon.
  • Militia operations in Iraq and Syria.
  • Maritime disruption in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden by the Houthis.
  • Potential pressure on Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

Such a strategy complicates military planning for Iran's adversaries by increasing the costs and unpredictability of escalation.

The Real Battle: Preserving the Nation-State

For many governments in the Middle East, the challenge is no longer simply managing individual armed groups.

The broader concern is addressing a regional security model in which powerful non-state actors can influence national decision-making, challenge state institutions, and shape regional conflicts.

From this perspective, the central contest is not only about containing Hezbollah, the PMF, or the Houthis individually. It is about reinforcing the authority and resilience of sovereign states against transnational armed networks.

The Bottom Line

The strategic map of the Middle East may have changed after Assad's fall, but Iran's regional influence has not disappeared—it has adapted.

Whether described as an "Axis of Resistance" or an emerging "Iran Triangle," Tehran's network continues to shape regional security calculations through interconnected proxy forces operating across several countries.

Ultimately, the defining question for the Middle East is no longer simply how to respond to individual militias, but whether states can strengthen their institutions enough to prevent non-state military networks from determining the region's future.

Related Analysis

Iran's evolving regional strategy extends beyond its network of allied armed groups. As regional power balances shift following the fall of Assad and changing U.S. and Israeli policies, Tehran continues to adapt its military and political posture. For a broader examination of how Iran is reshaping its regional strategy after recent conflicts, read our analysis:

Related: From the Shadows to the Top of Power: How Ahmad Vahidi Became Iran's New Wartime Leader
https://www.kurdishpolicyanalysis.com/2026/08/from-the-shadows-to-the-top-of-power-ahmad-vahidi.html

 #Iran #MiddleEast #Hezbollah #Iraq #Geopolitics #Security #Houthis #RegionalConflict

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