The Kurdish Referendum: Between Defeat and Achievement

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  Nine years after Kurdistan’s 2017 referendum, its political, economic and strategic consequences remain deeply contested. Nine years after the Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, debate over the referendum and its consequences for the Kurdistan Region continues. Supporters regard it as a historic achievement, while its opponents see it as a factor that weakened the Region’s position within the framework of Iraq. On September 25, 2017, the referendum process was held in the Kurdistan Region and the disputed territories. At the time, the authorities of the Kurdistan Region claimed that the process was intended to pave the way for “independence” and “separation” from Iraq. However, less than a month later, the political balance shifted dramatically against the Region. When the referendum was held in the Kurdistan Region, most political parties and factions supported the process. However, less than a month later, when the Iraqi military operation against the disputed territor...
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Iran-Aligned Militias Threaten Iraqi Airports Over Suspended Iran Flights

Iran-aligned militias threaten Iraqi airports over suspended Iran flights, raising aviation security risks and tensions with Washington.

As flights between Iraq and Iran, including those to and from Najaf International Airport, come to a halt amid U.S. sanctions on Iran's aviation industry, Iran-aligned militias are leading the loyalist camp's rejection of the suspension.


DEVELOPMENT
Borderline Advisory Services has reported that At 2100 local time on 25 September, Akram al-Ka'abi, Secretary-General of Harakat al-Nujaba (HAN), issued a statement threatening to mobilize supporters for sit-ins at Iraqi airports unless the suspension is lifted. Ka'abi also called for breaking U.S. hegemony and rebuked the governing parties for acquiescing to Washington's demands. Earlier, at 1830 local time, Kata'ib Hezbollah (KH) said that any ground handling company complying with the U.S. decision "has chosen for itself the role of a submissive backer of the U.S. and Zionist decision."

The statements came on the same day that Mohammad Mokhber, a senior Iranian official, threatened to disrupt air traffic across the region, warning that "if Iran cannot operate flights and receive aviation services at airports, no other country in the region will be able to do so either."

WHY IT MATTERS
HAN's threat to mobilize at airports and KH's implicit threat against ground handling companies are complementary. Together, they could paralyze Iraqi aviation and effectively enforce, inside Iraq, Mokhber's threat to disrupt regional air traffic in response to the sanctions. The statements are likely to prompt other militias to follow suit and amplify the threats.

If sit-ins materialize, aviation security risks in Iraq will rise. Senior managers at ground handling companies and possibly government bodies will likely face harassment, and even threats of physical violence and kidnapping, from militia affiliates.

The continued suspension of flights between Iraq and Iran will very likely trigger pro-Iran sit-ins, with turnout boosted by the postponement of the new school year in federal Iraq to 1 October. Airport protests, along with the shift to overland travel between Iraq and Iran, are likely to worsen inter-city traffic.

SO WHAT?
An escalating militia campaign may play out on social media, with threats carrying AI-generated graphics that depict MANPADS being used against airliners still operating in Iraq and the region. An actual surface-to-air attack on an airliner remains unlikely at this stage. Yet, a continuing flight ban may increase militia threats against the U.S. diplomatic missions in Iraq.

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