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Showing posts with the label Strategic Competition

The Kurdish Referendum: Between Defeat and Achievement

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  Nine years after Kurdistan’s 2017 referendum, its political, economic and strategic consequences remain deeply contested. Nine years after the Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, debate over the referendum and its consequences for the Kurdistan Region continues. Supporters regard it as a historic achievement, while its opponents see it as a factor that weakened the Region’s position within the framework of Iraq. On September 25, 2017, the referendum process was held in the Kurdistan Region and the disputed territories. At the time, the authorities of the Kurdistan Region claimed that the process was intended to pave the way for “independence” and “separation” from Iraq. However, less than a month later, the political balance shifted dramatically against the Region. When the referendum was held in the Kurdistan Region, most political parties and factions supported the process. However, less than a month later, when the Iraqi military operation against the disputed territor...
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What Is Gray Zone Conflict? The silent war reshaping global power

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    By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj   Gray Zone Conflict Through 2030: Why the World's Most Dangerous Battles May Never Become Official Wars From cyberattacks and economic coercion to proxy militias and information warfare, the intelligence community warns that the future of global competition will increasingly unfold in the "gray zone"—where states seek strategic victories without triggering conventional war. Gray zone conflict is reshaping global geopolitics through 2030 as China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea expand hybrid warfare below the threshold of war. The gray zone is neither peaceful relations nor armed conflict. In gray  zone conflict, strategic competition between two or more states (with  their respective conflict dyads) takes place below the threshold of  armed conflict. The essentially non-violent nature of the conflict, save  for sporadic episodes involving limited use of violence, is usually  deliberate on the part of the parties, partic...
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Iran attacks damage 20 US military sites since start of war, satellite images show

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 By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Sulaimani, Iraqi Kurdistan — 1 June 2026 I ran has damaged 20 US military sites since the start of the war, satellite images and videos analysed by BBC Verify show, suggesting the attacks are more extensive than publicly acknowledged. Iran has targeted key facilities across eight countries in the Middle East since the end of February, causing millions of dollars of damage to state-of the-art air defence systems, refuelling aircraft and radars. Tehran has targeted both US bases and shared military facilities in retaliation to the US-Israeli strikes across Iran and Lebanon over the past three months. The Pentagon says it has hit more than 13,000 targets in Iran since the start of Operation Epic Fury. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, has sought to highlight his military's success in striking US facilities. In a statement on Tuesday he claimed the Middle East was no longer a "safe place" for American bases. While the White House has repeated...
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From Erbil to the World: What Rudaw’s Guinness Record Says About Kurdish Soft Power

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Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj A Kurdish media organization has just produced a digital result that deserves to be understood as more than a communications milestone. On September 14, 2026, Rudaw Media Network announced that its digital platform had entered Guinness World Records after a Rudaw fact-checking video generated 284,007,601 views on Facebook within a 24-hour period. According to Rudaw, the video , published on July 24, 2026, became the most-viewed Facebook video within a 24-hour window globally and subsequently ranked among Facebook's most-watched videos overall. Rudaw has described the achievement as a milestone for Kurdish digital media and as evidence that professional journalism produced in the Kurdistan Region can reach audiences far beyond its immediate geographical constituency. The significance of the achievement, however, is not adequately captured by the number 284 million. In geopolitical terms, the more important question is what happens when an institution based in E...
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The Gulf’s strategic chokepoint crisis | Kurdish Policy Analysis

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  Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran face a widening struggle over pipelines, Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, reshaping Gulf geopolitics and energy security. The Middle East is entering a more dangerous phase of the Iran–Gulf confrontation in which the central strategic issue is no longer simply the exchange of missiles and drones, but the control of the region’s energy and maritime arteries . In the space of days, Saudi Arabia has faced attacks launched from Iraqi territory against its East-West oil pipeline, Qatar has publicly backed Riyadh’s restraint, Iran and the Gulf states are preparing another diplomatic effort in Oman, and Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized strategically important territory around the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Taken together, these developments reveal an emerging regional contest over whether energy can continue to move through the Gulf and Red Sea despite the wider war. The most consequential development for Iraq and the Gulf is the reported drone a...
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Iraq’s Minorities Are Not Just a Humanitarian Issue — They Are a Test of the State

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Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Iraq’s minority question is often presented primarily as a humanitarian concern: communities displaced by war, religious sites destroyed, families unable to return home and survivors requiring assistance. That framing is understandable, but it is incomplete. Iraq’s experience since 2003 demonstrates that the survival of minority communities is inseparable from the country’s unresolved problems of governance, political representation, territorial competition and fragmented security. The central problem is therefore not simply that Iraq’s minorities have suffered repeated waves of violence. It is that the Iraqi state has repeatedly struggled to create political and security arrangements capable of protecting communities whose territories sit at the intersection of competing national, sectarian and geopolitical interests. The consequences are particularly visible in Nineveh, Sinjar and the wider disputed territories, where Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG...
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