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Showing posts with the label U.S. Policy

The Iraqi oil trap and its paradox: A rentier economy amidst geopolitical shocks

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In an economy dependent on oil exports, and with the disruption of crude oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iranian war, the core of the problem lies not only in the volume of exports and the revenues generated from them, but also in how these revenues are managed, and in the amount of spending that depletes them. On September 22, 2026, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi told The New York Times that Iraq had lost nearly $60 billion in oil revenue due to the war with Iran. For approximately two months, Iraq was unable to export 90% of its oil, while 90% of its economy depended on crude oil exports. Before June 2025, when the first round of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran erupted, the Central Bank of Iraq’s reserves had exceeded $110 billion, but by October 2026 they had fallen to less than $60 billion. Although Zaidi’s government managed to balance global polarization and geopolitical tensions during its first five months in office, the biggest problem was the i...
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When the common enemy disappears, alliances change: Mazloum Abdi’s realist lesson for the Syrian Kurds

  Mazloum Abdi’s assessment captures the hard reality of Kurdish geopolitics: alliances built against shared enemies can unravel when strategic interests change. Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj The most revealing aspect of Mazloum Abdi’s latest assessment of the Syrian Kurdish-led forces is not what he says about the United States, France, or Europe. It is what he refuses to say. Despite the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) receiving little meaningful Western support at a moment when their strategic environment is becoming increasingly difficult, Abdi does not frame the situation as betrayal. Instead, his assessment reflects a much colder understanding of international politics: states ultimately follow interests, and alliances built around a common enemy become vulnerable when that enemy loses strategic priority. That is a remarkably realist reading of the Syrian Kurdish predicament. For years, the SDF occupied an unusually important position in the Western security architecture in northeastern ...
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New U.S. policy paper warns politics of exclusion is fueling instability across Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon

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  Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis A new policy paper argues that exclusion—not simply terrorism or regional rivalry—has become one of the Middle East's greatest drivers of conflict, displacement, and Iranian influence. The report urges Washington to make political inclusion a central condition for future U.S. assistance. A new U.S. policy paper argues that political exclusion is driving instability in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon and calls for American aid to be tied to inclusive governance. A new report by the Middle East Policy Council (MEPC) argues that one of the most overlooked drivers of instability in the Middle East is not simply war, terrorism, or foreign intervention—but political exclusion . The paper contends that governments and dominant political actors across Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon have marginalized rivals, weakened state institutions, and created conditions that extremist groups and foreign powers have exploited. Titled "Reversing the Corrosive Polit...
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Iraq Faces Crucial Choice Over Iran‑Backed Militias as U.S. Pressure Intensifies

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Amid war spillover and militia attacks, Baghdad risks deeper instability in conflict between Tehran’s proxies and Washington Kurdish Policy Analysis Report BAGHDAD/ERBIL, April 9  — Iraq is confronting a growing strategic dilemma as Iran‑backed militias escalate attacks across the country, exposing deep political fractures in Baghdad and raising pressure from Washington for decisive action, analysts say. Groups aligned with Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), many of them backed by Iran and designated as terrorist organizations by the United States, have launched repeated drone, missile and rocket attacks on Iraqi and foreign targets in recent weeks, including U.S. interests, Kurdish areas and national security facilities. The surge in militia operations — intertwined with Tehran’s broader regional campaign — has compounded domestic instability and strained Baghdad’s ability to assert control, according to a policy analysis by The Washington Institute. On March 28, a drone attac...
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The Development Road: Iraq's emerging geopolitical position between Türkiye, Iran, the Gulf and the Kurdistan Region

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Iraq’s Development Road faces political, security and regional challenges involving Kurdistan, Türkiye, Iran and Baghdad’s state capacity. The Development Road is not simply as an infrastructure or trade project, but  a geopolitical corridor whose success depends on unresolved Kurdish, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian dynamics. One can identify three Kurdish-related issues as particularly important to the corridor's political viability: Baghdad–Erbil disagreement over the northern route through the Kurdistan Region. The Türkiye–PKK peace process and its implications for northern Iraq. The future status and integration of the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria. In this article I also examine Iran's position, arguing that Tehran has so far avoided outright opposition partly because Iraq presents the project as potentially compatible with Iranian connectivity through the Basra–Shalamcheh rail link. Iraq and Türkiye completed a framework draft agreement on transport infrastructure on September 21...
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Iran-Aligned Militias Threaten Iraqi Airports Over Suspended Iran Flights

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Iran-aligned militias threaten Iraqi airports over suspended Iran flights, raising aviation security risks and tensions with Washington. As flights between Iraq and Iran, including those to and from Najaf International Airport, come to a halt amid U.S. sanctions on Iran's aviation industry, Iran-aligned militias are leading the loyalist camp's rejection of the suspension. DEVELOPMENT Borderline Advisory Services has reported that At 2100 local time on 25 September, Akram al-Ka'abi, Secretary-General of Harakat al-Nujaba (HAN), issued a statement threatening to mobilize supporters for sit-ins at Iraqi airports unless the suspension is lifted. Ka'abi also called for breaking U.S. hegemony and rebuked the governing parties for acquiescing to Washington's demands. Earlier, at 1830 local time, Kata'ib Hezbollah (KH) said that any ground handling company complying with the U.S. decision "has chosen for itself the role of a submissive backer of the U.S. and Zionis...
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The Kurdish Referendum: Between Defeat and Achievement

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  Nine years after Kurdistan’s 2017 referendum, its political, economic and strategic consequences remain deeply contested. Nine years after the Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, debate over the referendum and its consequences for the Kurdistan Region continues. Supporters regard it as a historic achievement, while its opponents see it as a factor that weakened the Region’s position within the framework of Iraq. On September 25, 2017, the referendum process was held in the Kurdistan Region and the disputed territories. At the time, the authorities of the Kurdistan Region claimed that the process was intended to pave the way for “independence” and “separation” from Iraq. However, less than a month later, the political balance shifted dramatically against the Region. When the referendum was held in the Kurdistan Region, most political parties and factions supported the process. However, less than a month later, when the Iraqi military operation against the disputed territor...
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