Kurdish Policy Analysis

From strikes on Iran’s oil hubs to attacks across the Gulf, the first 24 hours reveal a ceasefire in name only.

GULF REGION, April 8 (Kurdish Policy Analysis) — A ceasefire meant to calm a rapidly escalating regional conflict appeared to fray within hours of taking effect on Wednesday, as missile strikes, drone attacks and conflicting political statements cast doubt on whether the truce was ever fully in force.

In one of the most serious reported incidents, Iranian energy infrastructure on Siri and Lavan islands in the Persian Gulf was struck after the ceasefire began, according to regional monitoring reports and local media. The attacks triggered fires at refinery sites, though officials in Tehran did not immediately confirm the extent of the damage or attribute responsibility.

At roughly the same time, Iran launched a wave of retaliatory strikes toward the United Arab Emirates, firing ballistic missiles and armed drones at multiple targets, according to Gulf security sources. Air defenses were activated across the UAE, with explosions and interceptions reported near key energy facilities.

At Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas complex, three people — two Emirati nationals and one Indian worker — were injured following what authorities described as an attempted strike. Emergency crews responded and the site was secured, officials said.

Air raid sirens were also reported in Dubai, while residents in Manama said explosions were heard across the capital late Wednesday. Kuwaiti authorities separately confirmed attempted attacks targeting infrastructure, though details remained limited.

Conflicting signals from leaders

Political messaging around the ceasefire added to the uncertainty.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement did not extend to Lebanon, suggesting military operations there could continue. In contrast, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the truce should apply “everywhere,” explicitly including Lebanon.

The conflicting interpretations underscored the lack of clarity surrounding the scope and enforcement of the agreement.

Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance described the situation as a “fragile truce,” as Washington and regional actors monitored developments.

Markets briefly believed in calm

Despite the cascade of incidents, global oil markets initially reacted as if the ceasefire would hold. Prices fell sharply during early trading, with crude slipping below $95 per barrel amid expectations of reduced supply disruptions.

However, analysts warned that the continued exchange of strikes could quickly reverse market sentiment if escalation persists.

A ceasefire in name only?

Security experts said Wednesday’s events highlight the risk that the agreement may represent a pause in rhetoric rather than a halt in military activity.

“The sheer volume of incidents reported within hours suggests either a breakdown in command and control or that key actors were never fully aligned on the ceasefire terms,” said a Gulf-based analyst.

Continued attacks across multiple countries — including the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait — indicate the conflict remains highly volatile, with energy infrastructure still a primary target.

As night fell across the Gulf, the situation remained fluid, with no clear indication that hostilities had fully ceased.