Kurdish Policy Analysis

     A 39-day barrage of Iranian and militia drones exposed both the strengths and limits of Western-built air defenses protecting Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital.

Erbil’s sky war: U.S. and U.K. air defenses blunt Iran drone barrage over Iraqi Kurdistan

ERBIL, Iraq, Kurdish Policy Analysis — Iraqi Kurdistan endured 39 days of sustained drone and missile attacks during the recent Iran-linked conflict, with hundreds of projectiles targeting military and civilian areas across the autonomous region, according to local monitoring data.

Most of the incoming strikes were intercepted by a layered air defense network deployed by the United States and the United Kingdom around Erbil International Airport, where coalition forces maintain a base.

Residents in Erbil described near-daily explosions, many of them the result of successful interceptions high above the city. At night, the sky was frequently lit by defensive fire, including C-RAM systems designed to destroy incoming drones, rockets and mortar rounds.

According to Rudaw Media Network, at least 703 drones and missiles were launched into Iraqi Kurdistan during the 39-day conflict, killing 17 people and injuring 92.

Most of the attacks were attributed to Iran-backed Iraqi militias operating from federal territory, targeting U.S. and coalition positions inside Erbil International Airport.

Layered defense over Erbil

Security analysts say the defense system deployed around Erbil consists of multiple overlapping technologies, including U.S.-made Raytheon Coyote counter-drone systems, British Rapid Sentry units, Patriot missile batteries and C-RAM platforms used for close-range interception.

Alex Almeida, a security analyst at Horizon Engage, said the system reflected a “high-low mix” approach designed to counter both ballistic missiles and large-scale drone swarms.

He said most early interceptions were handled by Coyote systems, while British Rapid Sentry units reportedly destroyed dozens of incoming drones during the opening weeks of the conflict.

Patriot missile systems were used against short-range ballistic threats, while C-RAM units formed the last defensive layer against drones that penetrated higher-tier systems.

Analysts say the configuration reflects lessons learned from years of militia drone attacks against U.S. positions in Iraq.

Protection without coverage

Despite the scale of interceptions, analysts and residents say the system did not provide full protection across Iraqi Kurdistan.

“Air defenses currently deployed in the Kurdistan Region do not belong to the region’s armed forces,” said Ceng Sagnic, chief of analysis at TAM-C Solutions and U.S. director at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.

He said while Erbil benefited from interception coverage, the system was primarily focused on defending coalition assets rather than providing blanket protection for civilian areas.

“Casualties across Erbil, along with successful strikes on residences of local leaders, show that use of these systems is not coordinated with the local government,” Sagnic said.

Other attacks struck civilian infrastructure across the region, including residential areas and hotels. In one incident, a drone strike killed a married couple in their home outside Erbil, with no apparent military target nearby.

Coalition casualties and civilian toll

The war also produced foreign military casualties. A French soldier was killed and six others wounded in a March 12 drone strike at a coalition facility near Erbil.

On March 24, ballistic missile strikes in Soran district killed six Peshmerga fighters and injured 30 others, with one wounded later dying from injuries.

Experts say these incidents highlight the difficulty of defending against low-cost drone systems and short-range missiles deployed in large numbers.

Cost imbalance in modern air defense

Analysts say the conflict exposed a growing mismatch between high-cost air defense systems and inexpensive drone warfare.

Sagnic said Kurdish defenses were relatively inexpensive compared to Gulf systems but were still constrained in scope and coordination.

Meanwhile, Almeida said Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates rely heavily on high-end systems optimized for ballistic missile threats, making them less cost-efficient against mass drone attacks.

“One-way interceptor drones, like those developed in Ukraine, are more cost-effective for swarm defense,” Almeida said.

Strategic uncertainty ahead of U.S. withdrawal

The conflict unfolded as U.S. forces continue a phased withdrawal from Iraq under agreements to end the anti-Islamic State coalition mission.

While most troops have left federal Iraq, coalition forces remain concentrated in Erbil.

Analysts say the war may not significantly alter the withdrawal timeline unless regional escalation resumes, though the security environment in Iraqi Kurdistan remains uncertain.

Sagnic said Washington may still reduce exposure in Iraq but could maintain exceptions for the Kurdistan Region depending on diplomatic relations.

Horizon Engage’s Almeida said a full withdrawal remains unlikely in the short term, citing continued instability and concerns over militia influence in Baghdad.

“At this point, it’s hard to see the Coalition pulling out later this year,” he said.