Kurdish Policy Analysis

Energy security, trade, water, border security, and the Kurdistan Region are expected to dominate talks as Iraq's new prime minister makes his first official visit to Ankara at President Erdoğan's invitation.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falah Al-Zaidi's first official visit to Turkey could redefine bilateral relations, with energy, security, water, and regional stability expected to dominate discussions. 

A Symbolic First Visit

The arrival of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falah Al-Zaidi in Ankara marks more than a routine diplomatic engagement. As one of his first major foreign visits since being tasked with forming Iraq's new government, the trip sends a clear message about the importance Baghdad attaches to its relationship with Turkey.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan personally invited Al-Zaidi following a telephone conversation in which he congratulated him on his appointment and reaffirmed Turkey's support for Iraq's stability and the formation of its new government.

Although the official agenda has been broadly described as strengthening bilateral relations, the geopolitical realities facing both countries suggest that the discussions will extend well beyond diplomatic formalities.

At a time when Iraq is navigating political transition, regional instability, and economic challenges, Ankara and Baghdad have numerous shared interests that require closer coordination.

Turkey has become one of Iraq's most important regional partners.

The two countries share more than 350 kilometres of border, maintain billions of dollars in annual trade, cooperate on security matters, and remain deeply interconnected through energy infrastructure.

Turkey is also Iraq's principal gateway to European markets, making bilateral cooperation increasingly important as Baghdad seeks to diversify its economy beyond oil.

For Ankara, a politically stable Iraq is essential to border security, regional trade, and broader Middle Eastern stability.

Perhaps no issue will receive greater attention than energy.

Although exports through the Iraq–Turkey Pipeline have faced repeated legal and political disputes in recent years, both governments understand that restoring and expanding energy cooperation remains in their mutual interest.

Turkey benefits from serving as an energy transit hub connecting Iraq to global markets.

Iraq, meanwhile, depends upon diversified export routes capable of reducing vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Discussions may therefore explore:

• Future oil export arrangements.
• Pipeline modernisation.
• Natural gas cooperation.
• Electricity interconnection projects.
• Long-term energy security.

Given increasing regional uncertainty, both governments have strong incentives to strengthen energy cooperation.

Security is expected to feature prominently.

Turkey continues military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) inside northern Iraq, while Baghdad has sought greater control over armed groups operating within its territory.

Although disagreements remain regarding Turkish military operations, both governments share an interest in preventing instability along their common border.

Possible discussion topics include:

• Counterterrorism cooperation.
• Border management.
• Intelligence sharing.
• Security coordination mechanisms.
• Reducing cross-border tensions.

Progress in these areas could improve broader bilateral relations while reducing security risks affecting civilians in northern Iraq.

The Kurdistan Region Will Likely Feature Prominently

The Kurdistan Region occupies a unique position within Iraq-Turkey relations.

Turkey maintains extensive economic ties with Erbil while simultaneously coordinating with Baghdad on federal issues.

Questions surrounding:

• Oil exports.
• Customs.
• Cross-border trade.
• Infrastructure investment.
• Border crossings.

are all likely to arise during discussions.

Both Ankara and Baghdad recognise that economic stability in the Kurdistan Region contributes to broader regional stability.

Water Diplomacy Cannot Be Ignored

Water remains one of Iraq's most pressing long-term national security concerns.

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers originate largely in Turkey before flowing into Iraq.

Reduced river flows, climate change, drought, and increasing water demand have intensified pressure on Iraqi agriculture and water resources.

Baghdad is therefore expected to seek greater cooperation regarding:

• Water releases.
• River management.
• Technical cooperation.
• Joint environmental initiatives.

Although water disputes remain politically sensitive, both countries increasingly recognise the importance of sustainable resource management.

Trade and Investment

Economic cooperation extends well beyond hydrocarbons.

Turkey ranks among Iraq's largest trading partners.

Future discussions may include:

• Expanding bilateral trade.
• Industrial investment.
• Transport corridors.
• Railway development.
• Logistics infrastructure.
• Border customs modernisation.

Projects associated with Iraq's Development Road initiative may also feature prominently given Turkey's strategic role connecting the Gulf to Europe.

What Outcomes Could Emerge?

Although major agreements may require additional negotiations, several practical outcomes could emerge from the visit.

1. Stronger Political Coordination

Both governments are likely to reaffirm their commitment to regular high-level dialogue aimed at preventing disputes from escalating.

2. Energy Cooperation

Officials could announce renewed technical discussions concerning pipeline operations and broader energy collaboration.

3. Security Mechanisms

Enhanced coordination regarding border security and counterterrorism appears likely.

4. Economic Expansion

New investment frameworks and trade facilitation measures may be announced to encourage greater commercial cooperation.

5. Water Cooperation

While comprehensive agreements remain challenging, both sides may establish additional technical committees focused on water management.

What Will Erdoğan Want?

Turkey's priorities are expected to include:

• A stable Iraqi government.
• Continued cooperation against the PKK.
• Expanded bilateral trade.
• Progress on the Development Road Project.
• Greater regional economic integration.
• Reliable Iraqi energy exports.

Ankara also seeks predictable political relations that reduce uncertainty along its southern border.

What Will Al-Zaidi Want?

For Iraq's new prime minister, the visit provides an opportunity to demonstrate diplomatic leadership early in his tenure.

Baghdad is likely seeking:

• Strong Turkish political support.
• Increased investment.
• Energy cooperation.
• Greater market access.
• Improved water coordination.
• Enhanced regional stability.

Successfully advancing these objectives would strengthen the new government's international standing.

Regional Implications

The meeting also occurs against the backdrop of wider Middle Eastern realignments.

Regional states increasingly prioritise economic cooperation alongside traditional security partnerships.

As competition intensifies over energy routes, transport corridors, and infrastructure investment, Iraq's geographic position becomes increasingly valuable.

Turkey views Iraq as a critical component of its regional connectivity strategy.

Iraq increasingly views Turkey as a gateway toward European markets.

This mutual dependence creates opportunities for deeper strategic cooperation.

Future Implications

Prime Minister Ali Falah Al-Zaidi's first official visit to Ankara is likely to set the tone for Iraq-Turkey relations under Iraq's new government. While immediate breakthroughs on complex issues such as water sharing or cross-border security may be unlikely, the visit provides an opportunity to establish political momentum and rebuild confidence between the two neighbours.

If discussions lead to progress on energy exports, trade expansion, infrastructure connectivity, and security coordination, both countries stand to benefit economically and strategically. Renewed cooperation could also reinforce Iraq's role as a regional transit hub while strengthening Turkey's ambitions as a key bridge between the Gulf and Europe.

Perhaps most importantly, the meeting signals that diplomacy is increasingly becoming the preferred tool for managing regional challenges. In an increasingly volatile Middle East, sustained dialogue between Baghdad and Ankara may prove essential not only for bilateral relations but also for the broader stability and economic integration of the region.

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