Ali Zaidi's Diplomatic Tightrope: Surviving Between America and Iran
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By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj
After ending his visit to the United States and returning to Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is caught between Washington and Tehran and is caught between two opposing agendas.
Zaydi was in trouble early in his trip to Washington when Trump bragged about the killing of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Although he diplomatically avoided the matter, he was attacked by militias and their supporters.
Shiite parties have opened the door for Zaydi to step up more than previous prime ministers, not for Zaydi himself, but to use him to protect themselves from Trump's attacks.
Thus, the Shiite parties want to use Zaydi as a cover to get through this stage, so they have allowed him to take some steps, but have not allowed him to do everything.
Just as Shiites want to use Zaydi to escape Trump's war, Tom Barak, Trump's planner in Iraq, wants to use Zaydi to weaken Iran's hegemony and put pressure on them. Tom Barak may imagine that he wants Zaydi to play the same role as Ahmed Sharia, but Iraq and Syria are completely different in terms of political situation and governance structure.
Shiite parties will open the way for Zaydi to play the role they want and plan for, but whenever they know that Zaydi is doing what the United States wants and their position is threatened, they will resist because the US will mean the end of their rule.
What has kept the Shiite parties in power is weapons and money; Weapons and money are at the heart of Iraq's economic and security problems. Without resolving these two issues, the situation in Iraq will never improve, and touching on these two issues means conflict and complications.
When Zayed set the end of September for arming the militias, he did not do so for nothing.
The distance between the end of September (designated for arming the militias) and November (when the US elections are held) is not long, and Zaidi can make some shows and kill more time by agreeing with the militias in the meantime.
On the other hand, further tensions between the United States and Iran may lead the militias to use this as an excuse to keep their weapons, so it is difficult for Shiites to see how far they will allow Zaidi to avoid Trump.
The situation is much more complicated for Zayed himself. How can he balance the conflicting agendas of Tehran and Washington? How can it manage crises and problems?
It can be said that what we see and feel is a battle of time-killing and time-gaining. As one diplomat put it: “Iran and children have similar natures;
Here, too, Shiites and Iran are fighting for time and believe that the post-Trump era will be different, so they are killing time and want to get behind the Trump era at any cost.
The United States is in a hurry to create a situation to get Iraq out of Iranian domination as much as possible, leaving only the poor Zaydi who does not know how to get out of this complicated equation safely.
Zaidi is not allowed to end everything with the militias
Dr. Sardar Aziz, an international researcher, says the recent attacks on Erbil and the movements of Shiite militias are a clear and directed message; Even if they were not originally intended to do so, they will eventually become a message to Zaydi.
Before his visit to Washington, Zaydi had set September 30 as the deadline for arming the militias, saying they would have no excuse to stay after that date.
"It seems that the militias want to send a message to Zaydi that a red line has been drawn for his powers, that is, he is allowed to say certain things and take certain actions, but he must know that he is not authorized to end everything.
Meanwhile, Dr. Sardar Aziz stressed that these movements and attacks are a similar message to Washington, to tell them that Zaidi does not have absolute decision-making and authority in Iraq and there are forces that do not obey him or his words.
He concluded that the main purpose of this message is to limit Zaydi and show the United States that Zaydi is not the final decision-maker so that all cases can be resolved through him
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