This month, especially this week, the volume of Gulf oil transported to world markets, from the Strait of Hormuz, has been somewhat close to the volume of oil transported before the war. But oil prices have not yet returned to pre-war levels, which is in part in the interests of Gulf oil sellers, except Iran.

How did this happen

In May, the UAE decided not to surrender to Iran and would find a way to sell its oil. To this end, he undertook a complex and adventurous process. He prepared a series of ships to transport the oil, in an intermittent manner, that is, a ship carrying the oil from the UAE passes through the Oman Strait in Hormuz, then another ship waits outside Hormuz, the oil is transported from the first ship to the second. The first ship will then return to the UAE to carry more oil for ships waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz. Ships turn off radar signals in the process. The US Centcom fully supported the plan from the beginning and took over militarily. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia then used the same tactic.

Another tactic in the process is to load small, old, cheap oil ships and cross the Strait of Hormuz. Outside the Hormuz, far from Iran's borders, large and expensive ships are waiting and receive the oil from small ships. For the past week, Saudi Arabia has been selling between 4-7 million barrels of oil per day.

With the destruction of its navy, except for a number of small ships, and the destruction of most of its radars and military checkpoints in the Gulf, Iran has gradually lost its ability to intercept ships. This does not mean that it has no capacity. It is still causing headaches and occasionally targeting ships, so oil prices have not yet fallen to pre-war prices because the threat remains. But Iran's ability to fully control the Strait of Hormuz has not happened, otherwise the price of oil would have exceeded $200 a barrel. Iran's declining hegemony over the Strait of Hormuz was a major factor in encouraging the Houthis to seize the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. However, if Hormuz continues like this, the Bab al-Mandeb alone will not have a major impact on Gulf oil, because most of the Gulf oil goes to Asia, without passing through the Bab al-Mandeb. The section to Europe, in the event of the closure of Bab al-Mandeb, could use the southern African route (Ras al-Raja' al-Saleh), which requires more price and time.

Iran is the first to suffer from the Strait of Hormuz because it cannot export any oil through it. While the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, although they occasionally suffer losses, but sell oil at high prices and earn more from selling oil. Meanwhile, oil transportation and shipping insurance companies, because they have increased prices, are ready for small and medium losses because they earn more revenue because of higher prices.

Iran's military capabilities have not been able to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, so it has not been able to bring oil prices to $2 Although Iran has created chaos in the world market, it has also created a great desire for the Gulf states and oil and transportation companies to ride. The US Navy in the Gulf undoubtedly played a key role in limiting Iran's ability to navigate the Strait of Hormuz and continue to sell Gulf oil.

This situation reflected the US discourse on the possibility of negotiations and an agreement with Iran, which said that Iran can not make the opening of Hormuz a condition, because the Strait is no longer under its control.

What is actually happening in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz is not like Trump's statements that the Hormuz is completely open as before the war, but certainly far from Iran's statements that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and under the control of the Revolutionary Guards. Currently, 10-13 million barrels of oil are exported daily from the Strait of Hormuz to world markets without Iran being able to stop it. But it has not yet reached 20 million barrels, the pre-war price. If the situation continues like this, it is a clear indication that the Hormuz card has been burned for Iran to a large extent and will be used against itself.