The Iraqi oil trap and its paradox: A rentier economy amidst geopolitical shocks

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In an economy dependent on oil exports, and with the disruption of crude oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iranian war, the core of the problem lies not only in the volume of exports and the revenues generated from them, but also in how these revenues are managed, and in the amount of spending that depletes them. On September 22, 2026, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi told The New York Times that Iraq had lost nearly $60 billion in oil revenue due to the war with Iran. For approximately two months, Iraq was unable to export 90% of its oil, while 90% of its economy depended on crude oil exports. Before June 2025, when the first round of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran erupted, the Central Bank of Iraq’s reserves had exceeded $110 billion, but by October 2026 they had fallen to less than $60 billion. Although Zaidi’s government managed to balance global polarization and geopolitical tensions during its first five months in office, the biggest problem was the i...

Putin at Valdai: Russia’s Warning as the World Enters a New Era

Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered an important speech on current global developments at the 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow. Speaking to international experts from 40 different countries, Putin stressed that the world is living through a very dangerous moment due to the changing dynamics of global affairs.

Given the importance of the speech, below are the key themes and statements translated into English.

Key themes of Putin’s speech:

The world is on the verge of fundamental change. With the balance of power shifting and the rejection of Western unilateral dominance, the global situation is moving in a better direction. Today, all red lines and taboos—whether they have been imagined or not—are being crossed one by one.

Thirty-five years ago, our country experienced its collapse. It was a genuine catastrophe and tragedy for millions of people in Russia and other countries. People went to sleep one night and woke up in a new country, with their futures completely transformed. The final Soviet leadership dealt with the West with naivety, misplaced confidence, and blind trust. Soviet leaders wanted the West to like them, while Western leaders had only one objective:

To reshape the world according to their own wishes and interests.

But we must understand that no matter how great the achievements of our predecessors were, without building the future, the past loses its meaning. We must not become a great museum of past greatness. The true greatness of a state is impossible without the ability to keep pace with its era—and, more importantly, a state must be ahead of its time.

Regarding Ukraine, the truth must be told as it is: We did not start this war; they launched the war against us. NATO should not have conducted military exercises and activities on our historical territories for its own interests. They should not have encouraged radical nationalism and Russophobia in Ukraine and turned it into a tool for confronting Russia. They should not have used tanks, launched missiles, and burned unarmed people alive simply because they were Russian, or elevated the killing of Russians and the destruction of Russia to the level of an official state ideology.

Russia was deliberately placed in a situation where it was forced to respond to these acts of aggression. The Russian army has always adhered to the rules of war and has never been the first side to deliberately attack civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine can no longer exist independently. It has lost the elements of statehood and is being directed from outside. As for the territories, Russia’s main concern is not the land but its people. If losing these territories is inevitable, there is no point in clinging to them. We must create an environment that will save us—not merely a temporary ceasefire, but a lasting and long-term peace. In the future, the neutralisation of Ukraine will also remain an unchanged objective among Russia’s key goals.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, some circles within NATO concluded that Russia should not be allowed to become part of the “family of civilised nations.” Russia tried to become part of that family, but it was unsuccessful. The opposite happened: they continued trying to bring down this empire. Perhaps Europe does not realise that the Russian Empire has passed through a very long historical period.

I want everyone to understand this reality: Today, the leading countries of the world possess weapons capable of destroying all life on Earth, and there is no guarantee that these weapons will never be used.

France and Britain possess nuclear weapons, and we are fully aware of their capabilities. But in terms of the scale of our weapons, Russia is unique, and at present no other country possesses weapons like ours. If a gun is hanging on a stage, sooner or later it will be fired.

We do not intend to frighten anyone, and our messages to NATO are not intended to intimidate them. They are direct responses to their attempts to intimidate us. But understand this:

If the matter reaches a direct attack on Russian territory or on Kaliningrad, the question of using the full capabilities of our weapons will arise immediately. We do not intend to attack anyone in 2029, 2030, or 2050. But if we are attacked, our response will be devastating—and the citizens of European countries must understand this reality clearly.

On the economic and diplomatic fronts, some European countries, such as Germany, are shamelessly violating all the rules and taking control of our major companies. So far, we have not nationalised anything, but we are creating a mechanism to ensure that, if our companies are seized, we will have the door open to respond in the same manner.

As for Switzerland, we respect neutrality, but neutrality cannot exist merely in words. Switzerland should have remained completely outside the sanctions against Russia. So what did Switzerland gain from this position?

Nothing.

In recent months, Ukraine has attacked our oil refineries and managed to reduce our GDP by approximately 1%. The proposal to halt maritime attacks in exchange for stopping attacks on the refineries is completely meaningless. Although I am not saying that we will directly attack companies in countries supplying weapons to Ukraine, this is a dangerous threat, and we are monitoring it closely.

Russia’s proposals for the transfer of enriched uranium from Iran to Russia remain active and ongoing. The entire world is astonished by the courage, heroism, and resilience of the Iranian people.

As for Japan and its hostile positions toward us, nothing has changed so far in Russia’s position. However, although we have heard strong statements from some senior Japanese leaders, we have never allowed ourselves to speak in such a manner.

Today, we are moving toward a new world. In the near future, very quickly, we will all be driving Chinese cars because they offer high quality at affordable prices. And my generations will also be speaking Chinese.


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