From war to trade: how the Abrahamic Agreements are redrawing the Middle East's strategic map

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis

As geopolitical rivalries evolve, the Abrahamic Agreements are transforming regional diplomacy from military confrontation toward economic integration, strategic partnerships, and new trade corridors that could reshape the Middle East's balance of power.

From War to Trade: Strategic Dimensions of Abrahamic Agreements

In recent years, the Middle East has undergone important political and diplomatic turning points, most notably the signing of the so-called "Abrahamic Agreements," agreements between a number of Arab countries and Israel with the consent and supervision of the United States.

However, these agreements caused a lot of controversy in political, cultural and religious circles. While some see it as an opportunity to strengthen stability and economic cooperation in the region, others see it as contrary to historical positions on the Palestinian cause and unconditional normalization with Israel.

Since 1948, the Arab-Israeli conflict has been one of the most prominent challenges in the Middle East and has taken many forms, including wars, complex negotiations and failed diplomatic initiatives. But 2020 marked a decisive turning point in the relationship, with the announcement of the signing of "Abrahamic agreements" between Israel and Arab countries, in a move described as a fundamental change in the map of regional alliances and interests.

Although some Arab countries, such as Egypt (in 1978) and Jordan (in 1994), had preceded this by signing peace treaties with Israel in the 1970s and 1990s, the Abrahamic agreements differed in that they were not the result of a war with Israel They came into existence.

The "Abrahamic Covenants," also known as the Covenants of Abraham (or Abraham), are named after the Prophet Abraham, to whom all three heavenly religions (Judaism, Christianity, and Islam) associate themselves. This nomenclature was chosen so as to give a pattern of religiously based partnership between Israel and Arabs, or in other words between Jews and Muslims.

The text of the "Ibrahimi Agreements" declaration, according to the text on the State Department website, emphasizes the parties' commitment to the following provisions:

* The importance of maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East and the world, based on mutual understanding, peaceful coexistence and respect for human dignity and freedom, including freedom of religion and belief.

* Call for intensification of efforts to strengthen dialogue between religions and cultures, to strengthen the culture of peace between the three Abrahamic religions and all humanity.

* Believing that the most appropriate way to face challenges is through cooperation, dialogue and the development of friendly relations between countries serves the interests of lasting peace in the region and the world.

* Striving to instill the values of tolerance and respect for each individual, to build a world in which everyone, regardless of race, religion or ethnic origin, enjoys a life of dignity and hope.

* Support science, art, medicine and commerce as a means of inspiring humanity, enhancing human capabilities and strengthening rapprochement between nations.

* Efforts to eradicate extremism and conflict, in order to provide a brighter future for the world's children.

* Continue to work for a comprehensive vision for peace, security and prosperity in the Middle East and the world.

In this context, the progress made in establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and neighboring countries is welcomed, in accordance with the principles set out in the Abrahamic Agreements.

"The Products of the Abrahamic Agreements"

The Abrahamic Agreements Institute for Peace (based in Washington) describes the signing of the agreements as "a fundamental turning point in the nature of relations between Israel and Arab countries."

Thanks to the continued support of both major US parties, "in less than four months (between August/August and December/December 2020), four countries began diplomatic moves to normalize bilateral relations with Israel, monitoring Egypt and Jordan in taking this significant step.

These agreements "pave the way for an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict, opening new horizons for a future based on peace, tolerance and equal opportunities in the Middle East and around the world," the institute said.

It also believes that these agreements represent "the beginning of a new regional chapter based on a collective vision of economic prosperity, and the stronger the trade ties, the stronger the ties between nations and countries.

Is the business sector the way to peace in the Middle East?

According to the Institute's definition, the Ibrahimi agreements are the cornerstone for "a genuine peace process in the Middle East, by demonstrating tangible achievements for human relations, trade and mutual cooperation.

It is an initiative to seize a historic opportunity to unleash regional capabilities, strengthen United States security, and help the Middle East move beyond decades of conflict toward a new phase of multilateral cooperation."

The institute believes the Abrahamic agreements carry unlimited opportunities, which may help provide up to four million new jobs, and stimulate economic activity estimated at $1 trillion over the next decade.

Of course, the signing of the Abrahamic Agreements brought relations between Israel and some Arab countries into the open, and redrew the face of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The first agreement was signed on September 15, 2020 between the UAE and Bahrain on the one hand, and Israel on the other, under the direct supervision of the United States and the support of US President Donald Trump, with Sudan and Morocco later included.

The UAE entered into talks to normalize relations with Israel in July 2020 after the United States announced the sale of 50 F-35 fighters to the UAE.

Meanwhile, another Gulf country rushed to join the normalization procession, and the decision to reach another agreement between Israel and Bahrain was announced. Less than a few days later, Bahrain joined representatives from the UAE, Israel and the United States at a Trump-led signing ceremony at the White House.

The United States has reached other agreements with Morocco and Sudan to normalize relations with Israel in recent months. In December 2020, a joint statement was issued between Morocco, Israel and the United States, and the United States became the first country to recognize Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara.

In the same month, the United States removed Sudan from the list of countries supporting terrorism, and in December 2021, Sudan signed the "Ibrahimi Agreements" declaration, and negotiations on a bilateral agreement between Israel and Sudan continued for years afterwards.

The years following the agreements also witnessed the signing of a series of trade agreements between the signatories, most notably those between Israel and the UAE, whose trade volume exceeded half a billion dollars in the first year of normalization.

Despite the decline in public support for the Ibrahimi agreements in recent years, especially after the destruction of the Gaza Strip following the outbreak of the Israeli-Hamas war in October 2023, which reduced the distrust of other countries to sign them, the Ibrahimi agreements remained unchanged.

"Strategic Dimensions"

There were other strategic reasons behind the signing of the “Abrahamic Agreements” between Arab countries and Israel at the time; Most notably, these agreements contribute to supporting the UAE's aspirations, helping it build itself as a military power, as well as a hub for prominent business and tourism, according to Jeremy Bowen (BBC's Middle East editor).

The United States, for its part, helped make the agreements by pledging to provide the UAE with advanced weapons that were previously out of reach, including the F-35 and the EA-18G Growler.

At the same time, Israel and the United States support the UAE and Bahrain's suspicions of Iran; Because Tehran claimed until 1969 that Bahrain was (for example) an integral part of its territory, and Bahrain’s Sunni rulers believed that certain strata of the country’s restive Shia majority constituted a likely fifth column loyal to Iran.

The agreements also contribute to reducing Israel's regional isolation. Normalizing relations with Arab countries is a real achievement, especially since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pursues a strategy known as the "Iron Wall" between Israel and the Arabs since the 1920s; A strategy based on the belief that Israeli military superiority "will eventually force the Arabs to acknowledge its existence as a reality that cannot be stopped."

The agreements also help strengthen the coalition in the region against Iran, which is another achievement for Israel. Another reason is that the Israelis have placed high hopes on "Abrahamic agreements" to strengthen their future relations with Gulf countries, which are geographically far from the heart of the conflict in Jerusalem and the occupied Palestinian territories.

Of course, the Abrahamic agreements are a turning point in the history of Arab-Israeli relations, opening the door to alliances in the region that range from economic and security interests and largely transcend ideological and historical considerations.

While some see the “Ibrahimi Accords” as an opportunity for peace and development (as officially declared), their fate depends on their ability to have a real impact on resolving outstanding issues, and above all the Palestinian cause, which remains the backbone of conflict in the Middle East.

#AbrahamAccords #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Trade #Diplomacy #Israel #UAE #SaudiArabia #RegionalSecurity #EconomicIntegration #InternationalRelations #KurdishPolicyAnalysis

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