By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj

Kurdish Policy Analysis

 Lebanese media: Saudi Arabia will be attacked from Iraq in the next 72 hours

Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that the Iraqi Resistance Front forces will respond militarily to US and Saudi attacks within 72 hours.

Could Iraq Become the Next Front in a Wider Regional Confrontation?

A report published by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar has intensified concerns about the possibility of another escalation in the Middle East. According to the newspaper, Iraqi Resistance Front factions are preparing to launch military operations against Saudi Arabia within the next 72 hours in response to what they describe as U.S. and Saudi attacks.

Although the report has not been independently verified and no official Iraqi, Saudi, or U.S. authorities have confirmed the claim, its publication alone reflects the increasingly volatile security environment across the region. Whether the reported threat materializes or not, it highlights the growing possibility that Iraq could once again become a platform for broader regional confrontation.

The significance of the report lies not only in its specific claim but also in the broader strategic context. Over the past several years, Iraq has emerged as one of the principal arenas where regional powers compete through proxy actors. Armed groups aligned with the so-called "Axis of Resistance" have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to launch drones and missiles across borders, targeting U.S. military installations, Israeli interests, and occasionally Gulf states.

Saudi Arabia has previously experienced similar attacks. The 2019 strikes on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities demonstrated how vulnerable Gulf energy infrastructure can be to long-range drones and cruise missiles. Those attacks temporarily disrupted nearly half of Saudi oil production and shocked global energy markets. Since then, Riyadh has invested heavily in strengthening its air defenses while simultaneously pursuing diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions with Iran.

A renewed attack originating from Iraqi territory would therefore represent a significant setback for Saudi Arabia's regional security strategy. It could also place Baghdad in an extremely difficult position. Iraq has consistently attempted to balance its relations with neighboring Iran, Gulf Arab states, and the United States. Any cross-border military operation conducted from Iraqi territory would inevitably raise questions about the Iraqi government's ability to control armed groups operating within its borders.

The report also comes at a time when regional dynamics remain exceptionally fragile. Although several countries have sought diplomatic de-escalation in recent years, numerous flashpoints continue to exist simultaneously. Conflicts in Gaza, tensions involving Iran and Israel, maritime security concerns, and continued militia activity have created an environment in which localized incidents can rapidly evolve into broader regional crises.

From the perspective of armed resistance groups, expanding the battlefield may serve multiple strategic objectives. Attacking Saudi Arabia could increase pressure on Washington's regional allies, demonstrate operational reach, and reinforce the narrative that no participant in the regional security architecture remains beyond their military capabilities. Whether such calculations translate into actual operations, however, depends on both military capability and political considerations.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, has generally sought to avoid direct military confrontation in recent years. The Kingdom has prioritized economic diversification under Vision 2030 and has invested considerable political capital in reducing regional tensions through diplomacy. A major attack on Saudi territory would therefore present Riyadh with difficult choices regarding retaliation, deterrence, and international coordination.

For Iraq, the consequences could be equally significant. Any attack launched from Iraqi territory would likely intensify international pressure on Baghdad to curb the activities of armed factions operating outside full state control. It could also complicate Iraq's efforts to attract foreign investment and maintain balanced relations with both Gulf states and Western partners.

The United States would almost certainly monitor developments closely. Washington maintains military personnel in Iraq and continues to support regional partners through intelligence sharing and air defense cooperation. Any escalation involving attacks on Saudi Arabia could trigger additional military deployments or enhanced defensive measures across the Gulf.

Energy markets would also react quickly. Even unverified reports of possible attacks on Saudi Arabia often generate concerns regarding supply disruptions. Given the Kingdom's central role in global oil exports, any perceived threat to its energy infrastructure can influence market sentiment, insurance costs, and shipping risks.

Nevertheless, caution remains essential when evaluating reports of imminent military action. Media outlets affiliated with various political factions often publish claims that serve strategic messaging purposes. Such reports may be intended to signal deterrence, influence negotiations, shape public perception, or increase psychological pressure rather than announce confirmed operational plans.

Until corroborated by multiple independent sources or official statements, claims of impending attacks should therefore be treated as allegations rather than established facts. Analysts and policymakers will likely watch for indicators such as unusual military movements, official security warnings, increased air defense readiness, or changes in diplomatic messaging before drawing firmer conclusions.

Ultimately, regardless of whether the reported 72-hour timeline proves accurate, the publication illustrates the persistent instability characterizing today's Middle East. Iraq remains at the crossroads of competing regional interests, while Saudi Arabia continues to represent both a strategic target and a cornerstone of Gulf security. The interaction between these dynamics means that even rumors of military escalation can have political, economic, and security consequences far beyond the immediate actors involved.

The coming days will therefore be closely watched by governments, investors, and security analysts alike. If tensions continue to rise without diplomatic intervention, the risk of miscalculation may increase significantly, potentially drawing additional regional and international actors into an already complex geopolitical landscape.

Last night, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement that the air strikes were carried out in coordination with Saudi forces and targeted "weapons depots and logistical support for Iraqi armed groups. The United States has accused the groups of being behind recent attacks on Saudi energy facilities and US forces.

In response, the Hashdi Shaabi said 20 fighters were killed and 32 others wounded. Meanwhile, Iranian channels reported that four Revolutionary Guards advisers were killed.

After the incident, the Ministerial Council for National Security, chaired by Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Ali al-Zaidi, held an extraordinary meeting.

The council condemned the "aggression against Iraq" and refused to accept any "violation of national sovereignty. They also instructed the Foreign Ministry to document these violations in accordance with international law, along with drafting a security plan to prevent the use of Iraqi territory to threaten neighboring countries.

The government’s stance has reportedly failed to assuage the anger of militant groups, who believe a statement of shame alone is not enough. In this context, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued a strong statement and gave the government until August 6 to prove its ability to respond to the aggression.

"A US response is inevitable and will happen, and Saudi Arabia may be targeted if the situation on the ground so requires, but any move will be postponed until after the end of the pilgrimage," the statement said.

"The resistance forces are going to respond within 72 hours," a source in one of the groups told al-Akhbar newspaper, stressing that Saudi Arabia's targeting of Iraq "will not go without taxes.

"The tools of this aggression will end any negotiations on disarmament," he said. "Whoever talked about monopolization or disarmament has received a practical response; the weapons of resistance will remain and will not be compromised.

"Groups are discussing response options with other resistance fronts, including the Yemeni Ansarullah movement, within the framework of broader regional coordination," he said, warning that "proving government coordination with Washington would lead to an unprecedented domestic crisis.

Meanwhile, Hamid al-Kaabi, a leader in the Sayyid Shuhada Brigade, stressed that "the blood of the martyrs will not be wasted" and promised justice that the response would be "shaky," adding that the timing and method would be determined by detailed military assessments.

He said the United States "regrets" the strike, and threatened to target US and Saudi interests if the military operations continued.

#Iraq #SaudiArabia #MiddleEast #RegionalSecurity #Geopolitics