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Showing posts with the label Iraq Economy

Iraqi Kurdistan at a Strategic Crossroads: Political Fragmentation, Security Vulnerabilities and the Erosion of Regional Autonomy

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Iraqi Kurdistan faces growing political fragmentation, security vulnerabilities and external pressure threatening its federal autonomy. Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, Founder of Kurdish Policy Analysis Iraqi Kurdistan is entering a consequential period in its post-2003 political history. The Kurdistan Region, which spent decades establishing its federal status, developing autonomous institutions and building international partnerships, is now confronting a convergence of political, security and geopolitical pressures . The escalating confrontation between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the incomplete institutional integration of the Peshmerga, the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Erbil, and repeated attacks against critical energy infrastructure are exposing vulnerabilities that extend beyond the region's internal political arrangements. These developments are interconnected. Political fragmentation weakens the region's negotiat...
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Baghdad eyes 10M tourists, 1.5M jobs by 2035

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  Iraq targets 10 million tourists and 1.5 million tourism jobs by 2035 as Baghdad seeks to diversify its oil-dependent economy. Iraq is targeting 10 million visitors and 1.5 million tourism-related jobs by 2035, seeking to turn its ancient heritage, religious sites and varied landscapes into a larger industry while reducing its heavy reliance on oil. The Tourism and Antiquities Authority at the Ministry of Culture, in cooperation with the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), held a workshop in Baghdad on Saturday to develop a national tourism strategy through 2035, bringing together officials, academics and tourism specialists. The workshop was the first of five planned in Baghdad, Erbil, Karbala, Mosul and Basra. Matthias Bach, head of GIZ's Economic Transformation Promotion Department, noted that reaching the targets will require closer cooperation between the government and private sector, adding that the vision calls for a single strategy involving both sides. Ir...
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Iraq’s oil disappears from US market for seven straight weeks

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US crude imports from Iraq have fallen to zero for seven straight weeks, exposing Baghdad's vulnerability to disrupted export routes and regional energy shocks. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Iraq's crude oil has now disappeared from the US market for seven consecutive weeks, highlighting the growing consequences of the disruption to Iraq's export infrastructure and the country's vulnerability to regional geopolitical shocks. US crude imports from Iraq stood at zero barrels per day during the week ending August 7, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration data. No Iraqi crude has reached American refiners since late June. The development is more than a temporary change in America's oil-supply statistics. For Iraq, it is another indication of how quickly geopolitical disruption can reshape the country's energy trade—and expose the risks of relying on a limited number of export routes. Seven Weeks Without Iraqi Crude Iraq averaged approximately 179,000 b...
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Baghdad targets Iraq’s state banks as cash economy and outdated systems threaten reform

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Baghdad is considering leadership changes and mergers at Iraq's state banks as it confronts outdated systems, weak services and a $72 billion cash economy. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Baghdad is preparing to confront one of the least visible but most consequential weaknesses in Iraq’s economy: the state banking sector. The government is reportedly considering leadership changes at several state-owned banks amid concerns over weak services, slow modernization and the continued reliance on outdated administrative systems. Managers are expected to be judged not simply by financial performance, but by whether they can modernize institutions, expand digital services and make banking more accessible to ordinary Iraqis. The potential shake-up is significant because Iraq's banking problem is no longer simply about inefficient banks. It is about whether the country's financial system can support an economy that remains overwhelmingly dependent on cash. Around 87 percent of Iraq's mone...
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Basrah crude defies global oil sell-off as Iraq's export grades edge higher

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By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Kurdish Policy Analysis While Brent and WTI retreated on renewed market pressure, Iraq's Basrah Heavy and Basrah Medium crude posted modest gains, highlighting resilient demand for the country's key export blends. Basrah Heavy and Basrah Medium crude prices rose despite declines in Brent and WTI, underscoring continued resilience in demand for Iraq's flagship oil exports. Basrah Crude Defies Global Oil Sell-Off as Iraq's Export Grades Edge Higher SULAIMANI, Iraq — Iraq's flagship Basrah crude grades posted modest gains on Thursday despite a broader decline across global oil markets, signaling continued resilience in demand for the country's export blends even as international benchmarks weakened. According to the latest market data, Basrah Heavy crude rose by $0.34 (0.63%) to $54.04 per barrel , while Basrah Medium crude also gained $0.34 (0.61%) , reaching $56.34 per barrel . The gains contrasted sharply with movements in internati...
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Iraq's financial pressures are intensifying: government may borrow to pay salaries

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  Iraq's oil crisis deepens as salary fears grow amid export collapse Baghdad's mounting fiscal pressures are raising fresh concerns over salary payments, growing debt, and Iraq's heavy dependence on oil exports as regional conflict disrupts energy flows. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis Iraq faces mounting financial pressure as falling oil exports raise fears Baghdad may borrow to pay salaries, exposing the country's heavy dependence on energy revenues. Iraq is facing one of its most serious financial challenges in years, with growing concerns that the federal government could be forced to borrow money simply to pay public sector salaries. The warning reflects the widening economic fallout from prolonged regional instability, disrupted oil exports, and Baghdad's overwhelming dependence on hydrocarbon revenues. The latest concerns were raised by Iraqi Kurdish lawmaker Jutyar Sindi, who warned that the federal government has few immediate options to...
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The Development Road: Iraq's emerging geopolitical position between Türkiye, Iran, the Gulf and the Kurdistan Region

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Iraq’s Development Road faces political, security and regional challenges involving Kurdistan, Türkiye, Iran and Baghdad’s state capacity. The Development Road is not simply as an infrastructure or trade project, but  a geopolitical corridor whose success depends on unresolved Kurdish, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian dynamics. One can identify three Kurdish-related issues as particularly important to the corridor's political viability: Baghdad–Erbil disagreement over the northern route through the Kurdistan Region. The Türkiye–PKK peace process and its implications for northern Iraq. The future status and integration of the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria. In this article I also examine Iran's position, arguing that Tehran has so far avoided outright opposition partly because Iraq presents the project as potentially compatible with Iranian connectivity through the Basra–Shalamcheh rail link. Iraq and Türkiye completed a framework draft agreement on transport infrastructure on September 21...
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The Kurdish Referendum: Between Defeat and Achievement

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  Nine years after Kurdistan’s 2017 referendum, its political, economic and strategic consequences remain deeply contested. Nine years after the Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, debate over the referendum and its consequences for the Kurdistan Region continues. Supporters regard it as a historic achievement, while its opponents see it as a factor that weakened the Region’s position within the framework of Iraq. On September 25, 2017, the referendum process was held in the Kurdistan Region and the disputed territories. At the time, the authorities of the Kurdistan Region claimed that the process was intended to pave the way for “independence” and “separation” from Iraq. However, less than a month later, the political balance shifted dramatically against the Region. When the referendum was held in the Kurdistan Region, most political parties and factions supported the process. However, less than a month later, when the Iraqi military operation against the disputed territor...
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As 30 September Deadline Nears, Washington’s Kurdish Partnerships Face a New Test

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Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj  Washington’s September 30 withdrawal deadline marks a new test for U.S. partnerships with Kurdish actors in Iraq and Syria. The 30 September deadline marks an important moment in the changing relationship between Washington and its Kurdish partners in Iraq and Syria. On that date, the United States is due to complete the withdrawal of its remaining coalition forces from Iraq, while the Pentagon’s memorandum of understanding with the Kurdistan Region’s Peshmerga is set to expire. The deadline represents another stage in Washington’s effort to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East and place greater responsibility for regional security on local and regional actors. The withdrawal timetable has been confirmed by Baghdad, while Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has said that Iraq aims to complete the disarmament of Iran-aligned militias by 30 June 2027, separating the coalition’s departure from Baghdad’s longer effort to establish state control over armed groups...
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