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Iraqi Kurdistan at a Strategic Crossroads: Political Fragmentation, Security Vulnerabilities and the Erosion of Regional Autonomy

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Iraqi Kurdistan faces growing political fragmentation, security vulnerabilities and external pressure threatening its federal autonomy. Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, Founder of Kurdish Policy Analysis Iraqi Kurdistan is entering a consequential period in its post-2003 political history. The Kurdistan Region, which spent decades establishing its federal status, developing autonomous institutions and building international partnerships, is now confronting a convergence of political, security and geopolitical pressures . The escalating confrontation between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the incomplete institutional integration of the Peshmerga, the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Erbil, and repeated attacks against critical energy infrastructure are exposing vulnerabilities that extend beyond the region's internal political arrangements. These developments are interconnected. Political fragmentation weakens the region's negotiat...
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About the Peshmerga unification: How Can We Have an Army?

Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj How can Kurdish society build a modern army while balancing history, politics, technology, civil authority, and the Peshmerga's legacy? This may appear to be a straightforward institutional question, but it is not. The question of how to create an army in the Kurdistan Region is ultimately a question about political authority, social organization, historical experience, technology, and the relationship between the state and the forces that defend it. At the most basic level, there are two ways of thinking about this problem. We might call them thin theories and deep theories. Thin theory assumes that institutions can be separated from the societies that produce them. Under this approach, armies are broadly comparable institutions that can be constructed according to common models in different places. The assumption is that what works in one environment can, with sufficient administrative effort, be reproduced somewhere else. A similar logic is particularly domina...
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How US cut of funding for Peshmarga might affect Kurdistan regional autonomy?

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US ends Peshmerga funding as war with Iran rages—what the cutoff means for Kurdistan's autonomy, security, and ties with Baghdad. Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj The Pentagon has told Kurdistan Regional Government leaders it will not renew the agreement that funds the Peshmerga, according to a BBC report that called the force "a key Middle East ally" in the fight against ISIS. The Memorandum of Understanding between the US Department of Defense and the KRG's Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs — first signed in 2016 and renewed in 2022 — is set to expire around September 30, 2026, right alongside a broader US troop withdrawal from Iraq, as detailed in an analysis from the Kurdish Center for Studies . The Peshmerga, roughly 180,000 strong, received $61 million in fiscal year 2026 for weapons, training, and stipends through the Pentagon's counter-ISIS program. The FY2027 budget proposal cuts that to zero, leaving only about $1 million in medical support, a shift first flagged in repo...
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Kurdistan After the Coalition

 Kurdistan After the Coalition By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Last updated: August 31, 2026 What happens to Iraqi Kurdistan after the international coalition leaves Iraq? The answer will reshape the Peshmerga, Baghdad–Erbil relations and the regional security order. Kurdistan After the Coalition The Security Architecture Is Changing  For more than a decade, the Kurdistan Region's security architecture has been built around a powerful external assumption: The international coalition would remain.  That assumption is now disappearing.  The defeat of ISIS's territorial caliphate changed the coalition's mission. The next stage is changing the strategic environment in which the Kurdistan Region operates. The issue is not simply whether foreign troops remain physically inside Iraq.  The deeper question is what happens to the security architecture that developed around them. Who provides intelligence?  Who provides air support?  Who trains the Peshmerga?  Who pro...
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The Development Road: Iraq's emerging geopolitical position between Türkiye, Iran, the Gulf and the Kurdistan Region

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Iraq’s Development Road faces political, security and regional challenges involving Kurdistan, Türkiye, Iran and Baghdad’s state capacity. The Development Road is not simply as an infrastructure or trade project, but  a geopolitical corridor whose success depends on unresolved Kurdish, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian dynamics. One can identify three Kurdish-related issues as particularly important to the corridor's political viability: Baghdad–Erbil disagreement over the northern route through the Kurdistan Region. The Türkiye–PKK peace process and its implications for northern Iraq. The future status and integration of the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria. In this article I also examine Iran's position, arguing that Tehran has so far avoided outright opposition partly because Iraq presents the project as potentially compatible with Iranian connectivity through the Basra–Shalamcheh rail link. Iraq and Türkiye completed a framework draft agreement on transport infrastructure on September 21...
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The Kurdish Referendum: Between Defeat and Achievement

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  Nine years after Kurdistan’s 2017 referendum, its political, economic and strategic consequences remain deeply contested. Nine years after the Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, debate over the referendum and its consequences for the Kurdistan Region continues. Supporters regard it as a historic achievement, while its opponents see it as a factor that weakened the Region’s position within the framework of Iraq. On September 25, 2017, the referendum process was held in the Kurdistan Region and the disputed territories. At the time, the authorities of the Kurdistan Region claimed that the process was intended to pave the way for “independence” and “separation” from Iraq. However, less than a month later, the political balance shifted dramatically against the Region. When the referendum was held in the Kurdistan Region, most political parties and factions supported the process. However, less than a month later, when the Iraqi military operation against the disputed territor...
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As 30 September Deadline Nears, Washington’s Kurdish Partnerships Face a New Test

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Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj  Washington’s September 30 withdrawal deadline marks a new test for U.S. partnerships with Kurdish actors in Iraq and Syria. The 30 September deadline marks an important moment in the changing relationship between Washington and its Kurdish partners in Iraq and Syria. On that date, the United States is due to complete the withdrawal of its remaining coalition forces from Iraq, while the Pentagon’s memorandum of understanding with the Kurdistan Region’s Peshmerga is set to expire. The deadline represents another stage in Washington’s effort to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East and place greater responsibility for regional security on local and regional actors. The withdrawal timetable has been confirmed by Baghdad, while Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has said that Iraq aims to complete the disarmament of Iran-aligned militias by 30 June 2027, separating the coalition’s departure from Baghdad’s longer effort to establish state control over armed groups...
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