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Iraqi Kurdistan at a Strategic Crossroads: Political Fragmentation, Security Vulnerabilities and the Erosion of Regional Autonomy

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Iraqi Kurdistan faces growing political fragmentation, security vulnerabilities and external pressure threatening its federal autonomy. Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, Founder of Kurdish Policy Analysis Iraqi Kurdistan is entering a consequential period in its post-2003 political history. The Kurdistan Region, which spent decades establishing its federal status, developing autonomous institutions and building international partnerships, is now confronting a convergence of political, security and geopolitical pressures . The escalating confrontation between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the incomplete institutional integration of the Peshmerga, the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Erbil, and repeated attacks against critical energy infrastructure are exposing vulnerabilities that extend beyond the region's internal political arrangements. These developments are interconnected. Political fragmentation weakens the region's negotiat...
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Hadid-110 drone strike on Masrour Barzani: target or strategic message?

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What the Hadid-110 attack on KRG PM Barzani is really signaling? By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Local kurdish media reported today that two Iranian-made Hadid-110 drones were fired at the headquarters of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister’s Office and the shelter of the director of the Kurdistan Defense Agency in the Pirmam area of Erbil province, according to a statement from the Kurdistan Regional Government. The attack is significant not simply because it brought a new Iranian strike drone into the skies of Erbil, but because of what was chosen as the target. The headquarters of Masrour Barzani is not an ordinary government building. It represents the political, administrative and security center of the Kurdistan Region’s KDP-led government, and its location in Pirmam places it close to the political heart of the Barzani family. The attack therefore raises a larger question: Was the objective to kill Masrour Barzani, or was the objective to send him—and everyone around hi...
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The Drone War Over Kurdistan: Why Iraq's Kurdish Region Has Become the Middle East's Most Vulnerable Airspace

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  By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj Drones Over Kurdistan: Why Iraqi Kurdistan's Air Defense Gap Has Become One of the Middle East's Most Dangerous Security Vulnerabilities.  Drones Over Kurdistan: Why Air Defense Has Become the Kurdistan Region's Greatest Security Challenge After Hundreds of Drone and Missile Attacks, the Kurdistan Region Faces an Urgent Question: Who Will Defend Its Skies After the U.S. Withdrawal? The death of an American service member in Iraq's Kurdistan Region during the disposal of unexploded ordnance from an Iranian one-way attack drone has once again highlighted one of the region's most serious strategic vulnerabilities: the absence of an independent and effective air defense system. For years, the Kurdistan Region has increasingly become a frontline in regional conflicts despite repeatedly emphasizing its neutrality. Initially threatened by ISIS's weaponized drones, the region now faces persistent attacks from Iran and Iran-backed militias ta...
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Erbil under fire again: What the drone attack reveals about the next phase of the U.S.–Iran shadow war

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  Eight drones intercepted over Iraq's Kurdistan Region highlight a dangerous new chapter in regional competition as Baghdad seeks closer ties with Washington By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj The sight of explosions lighting up Erbil's night sky has become an all-too-familiar image in Iraq's Kurdistan Region. Yet the interception of eight explosive-laden drones over the regional capital on July 16 marks more than another attempted attack on a city that has repeatedly found itself on the front lines of Middle Eastern conflicts. Instead, it represents the latest manifestation of a rapidly evolving geopolitical contest involving the United States, Iran, Iraqi armed groups, and the future of Iraq's security architecture. According to the Kurdistan Region's Counter-Terrorism Directorate (CTD), International Coalition air defense systems intercepted and destroyed eight drones over Erbil between 8:53 p.m. and 9:20 p.m. local time. All were neutralized before reaching their intende...
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The Development Road: Iraq's emerging geopolitical position between Türkiye, Iran, the Gulf and the Kurdistan Region

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Iraq’s Development Road faces political, security and regional challenges involving Kurdistan, Türkiye, Iran and Baghdad’s state capacity. The Development Road is not simply as an infrastructure or trade project, but  a geopolitical corridor whose success depends on unresolved Kurdish, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian dynamics. One can identify three Kurdish-related issues as particularly important to the corridor's political viability: Baghdad–Erbil disagreement over the northern route through the Kurdistan Region. The Türkiye–PKK peace process and its implications for northern Iraq. The future status and integration of the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria. In this article I also examine Iran's position, arguing that Tehran has so far avoided outright opposition partly because Iraq presents the project as potentially compatible with Iranian connectivity through the Basra–Shalamcheh rail link. Iraq and Türkiye completed a framework draft agreement on transport infrastructure on September 21...
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The Kurdish Referendum: Between Defeat and Achievement

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  Nine years after Kurdistan’s 2017 referendum, its political, economic and strategic consequences remain deeply contested. Nine years after the Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, debate over the referendum and its consequences for the Kurdistan Region continues. Supporters regard it as a historic achievement, while its opponents see it as a factor that weakened the Region’s position within the framework of Iraq. On September 25, 2017, the referendum process was held in the Kurdistan Region and the disputed territories. At the time, the authorities of the Kurdistan Region claimed that the process was intended to pave the way for “independence” and “separation” from Iraq. However, less than a month later, the political balance shifted dramatically against the Region. When the referendum was held in the Kurdistan Region, most political parties and factions supported the process. However, less than a month later, when the Iraqi military operation against the disputed territor...
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As 30 September Deadline Nears, Washington’s Kurdish Partnerships Face a New Test

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Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj  Washington’s September 30 withdrawal deadline marks a new test for U.S. partnerships with Kurdish actors in Iraq and Syria. The 30 September deadline marks an important moment in the changing relationship between Washington and its Kurdish partners in Iraq and Syria. On that date, the United States is due to complete the withdrawal of its remaining coalition forces from Iraq, while the Pentagon’s memorandum of understanding with the Kurdistan Region’s Peshmerga is set to expire. The deadline represents another stage in Washington’s effort to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East and place greater responsibility for regional security on local and regional actors. The withdrawal timetable has been confirmed by Baghdad, while Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has said that Iraq aims to complete the disarmament of Iran-aligned militias by 30 June 2027, separating the coalition’s departure from Baghdad’s longer effort to establish state control over armed groups...
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