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Iraqi Kurdistan at a Strategic Crossroads: Political Fragmentation, Security Vulnerabilities and the Erosion of Regional Autonomy

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Iraqi Kurdistan faces growing political fragmentation, security vulnerabilities and external pressure threatening its federal autonomy. Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, Founder of Kurdish Policy Analysis Iraqi Kurdistan is entering a consequential period in its post-2003 political history. The Kurdistan Region, which spent decades establishing its federal status, developing autonomous institutions and building international partnerships, is now confronting a convergence of political, security and geopolitical pressures . The escalating confrontation between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the incomplete institutional integration of the Peshmerga, the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Erbil, and repeated attacks against critical energy infrastructure are exposing vulnerabilities that extend beyond the region's internal political arrangements. These developments are interconnected. Political fragmentation weakens the region's negotiat...
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The Parliament Trap: How Kurdistan’s Political Deadlock Is Becoming a Structural Crisis of Governance

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  By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis   As KDP and PUK exchange competing visions of legitimacy while salary dependency shifts toward Baghdad, the Kurdistan Region may be entering a new political era—one where institutions survive but strategic autonomy gradually contracts. The Kurdistan Region’s government formation deadlock, rising dependence on Baghdad for salaries, and institutional paralysis may signal a deeper transformation of Kurdish autonomy. A 3000-word geopolitical analysis. The Parliament Trap: When Political Competition Becomes Institutional Risk For decades, the Kurdistan Region’s political system operated through a balancing formula rather than classical parliamentary governance. Elections mattered, but consensus mattered more. Institutions existed, yet elite bargaining often determined outcomes before institutions formally endorsed them. That formula is now under visible strain. The latest political confrontation between the Kurdistan Democratic Par...
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How to solve the government crisis in the Kurdistan Region?

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By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis Estimated Reading Time: 18–20 minutes Although the government crisis in Southern Kurdistan is often seen as a disagreement between the KDP and PUK, it is evolving into a situation that targets some of the Kurdish people’s most significant achievements and weakens the Kurdish position. More than a year and a half has passed since the elections held in Southern Kurdistan (Northern Iraq) on October 20, 2024, yet a coalition government has still not been formed. This situation, caused by disagreements between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), has also directly affected the formation of the Iraqi government, including the months-long presidential election crisis that followed the parliamentary elections held in Iraq in November 2025. Dozens of meetings yielded no results Parliamentary elections were held in Southern Kurdistan on October 20, 2024, when the KDP won 40 seats, the PUK 23, the N...
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The Development Road: Iraq's emerging geopolitical position between Türkiye, Iran, the Gulf and the Kurdistan Region

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Iraq’s Development Road faces political, security and regional challenges involving Kurdistan, Türkiye, Iran and Baghdad’s state capacity. The Development Road is not simply as an infrastructure or trade project, but  a geopolitical corridor whose success depends on unresolved Kurdish, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian dynamics. One can identify three Kurdish-related issues as particularly important to the corridor's political viability: Baghdad–Erbil disagreement over the northern route through the Kurdistan Region. The Türkiye–PKK peace process and its implications for northern Iraq. The future status and integration of the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria. In this article I also examine Iran's position, arguing that Tehran has so far avoided outright opposition partly because Iraq presents the project as potentially compatible with Iranian connectivity through the Basra–Shalamcheh rail link. Iraq and Türkiye completed a framework draft agreement on transport infrastructure on September 21...
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The Kurdish Referendum: Between Defeat and Achievement

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  Nine years after Kurdistan’s 2017 referendum, its political, economic and strategic consequences remain deeply contested. Nine years after the Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum, debate over the referendum and its consequences for the Kurdistan Region continues. Supporters regard it as a historic achievement, while its opponents see it as a factor that weakened the Region’s position within the framework of Iraq. On September 25, 2017, the referendum process was held in the Kurdistan Region and the disputed territories. At the time, the authorities of the Kurdistan Region claimed that the process was intended to pave the way for “independence” and “separation” from Iraq. However, less than a month later, the political balance shifted dramatically against the Region. When the referendum was held in the Kurdistan Region, most political parties and factions supported the process. However, less than a month later, when the Iraqi military operation against the disputed territor...
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As 30 September Deadline Nears, Washington’s Kurdish Partnerships Face a New Test

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Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj  Washington’s September 30 withdrawal deadline marks a new test for U.S. partnerships with Kurdish actors in Iraq and Syria. The 30 September deadline marks an important moment in the changing relationship between Washington and its Kurdish partners in Iraq and Syria. On that date, the United States is due to complete the withdrawal of its remaining coalition forces from Iraq, while the Pentagon’s memorandum of understanding with the Kurdistan Region’s Peshmerga is set to expire. The deadline represents another stage in Washington’s effort to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East and place greater responsibility for regional security on local and regional actors. The withdrawal timetable has been confirmed by Baghdad, while Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has said that Iraq aims to complete the disarmament of Iran-aligned militias by 30 June 2027, separating the coalition’s departure from Baghdad’s longer effort to establish state control over armed groups...
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