Why Iraqi Kurdistan Is Paying the Price for the Escalating U.S.-Iran Confrontation

As Tehran Targets Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, the Kurdistan Region Finds Itself on the Frontline of a Regional Conflict It Did Not Choose

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq has once again become one of the principal battlegrounds in the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran. Although Kurdish authorities have consistently emphasized their neutrality, the region has endured an unprecedented wave of missile and drone attacks that Tehran says target American military assets and Iranian Kurdish opposition groups operating from Iraqi territory.

The attacks underscore a harsh geopolitical reality: Kurdistan's strategic location—between Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria—makes it one of the first regions to absorb the consequences whenever regional rivalries escalate.

According to Kurdish media reports, since the latest conflict began on February 28, the Kurdistan Region has been struck by approximately 920 drone and missile attacks, leaving around 30 people dead and more than 100 injured.

Iran Expands Its Military Pressure

Regional reports indicate that recent Iranian missile strikes have concentrated on areas surrounding Erbil and Sulaymaniyah.

Tehran argues that these operations target:

• U.S. military facilities;
• logistical infrastructure supporting American operations;
• bases used by Iranian Kurdish opposition organizations.

Iran has long accused Kurdish opposition groups—including factions based inside Iraq's Kurdistan Region—of organizing hostile activities against the Islamic Republic.

During the recent U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, reports also suggested that Washington encouraged Kurdish security forces to prepare contingency plans in the event of a broader regional escalation, including possible operations along the Iranian border. Although no such operation materialized, the reports appear to have reinforced Iranian security concerns.

Iran-Backed Militias Deny Responsibility

Initially, many observers suspected that Iran-backed Iraqi militias were responsible for the attacks, given their history of targeting coalition facilities and U.S. interests in Iraq.

However, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella organization representing several major pro-Iran armed groups, denied involvement.

In a public statement, the organization declared that it had not conducted recent attacks against U.S. bases in Iraq or elsewhere in the region. At the same time, it warned that any expansion of U.S. military operations against Iran would trigger attacks against American bases and interests throughout the Middle East.

The denial shifted attention toward the possibility of direct Iranian military involvement.

Analysts Point to Direct Iranian Action

Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch within the Israeli military intelligence directorate and now a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), assessed that the latest strikes were carried out directly by Iran rather than by proxy forces.

If accurate, this would represent another indication that Tehran is increasingly willing to conduct overt military operations beyond its borders when it believes its strategic interests are threatened.

Tehran Defends the Strikes

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei defended the operations, arguing that they were legitimate defensive measures.

According to Tehran, the attacks targeted:

• American military installations involved in operations against Iran;
• facilities allegedly used by anti-Iranian armed organizations;
• locations that could facilitate future hostile activities.

Baghaei further argued that Iran's actions were consistent with the bilateral security agreement between Tehran and Baghdad, asserting that Iraqi territory should not be used as a platform for armed operations against Iran.

Airports Temporarily Disrupted

Arab media reported that the missile attacks briefly disrupted civilian aviation at Erbil International Airport and Sulaymaniyah International Airport, forcing temporary suspensions of flight operations before services resumed.

Although disruptions were short-lived, they highlighted the growing risks facing civilian infrastructure as military tensions intensify.

Iraq Faces Growing Political Pressure

The attacks come at a politically sensitive moment for Baghdad.

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's government is attempting to strengthen state control over armed groups operating inside Iraq, an initiative supported by Washington but opposed by several Iran-aligned factions.

The issue has become increasingly significant as Baghdad seeks to balance its strategic partnership with the United States while preserving stable relations with neighboring Iran.

Washington Visit Raises Tensions

The regional atmosphere became even more charged following Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's first official visit to Washington, where he met President Donald Trump.

According to Iraqi officials, discussions touched on the 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force.

The visit generated criticism from several pro-Iran political factions inside Iraq, further illustrating the difficult position Baghdad occupies between its two principal strategic partners.

Subsequently, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced a $10 million reward for anyone responsible for killing President Trump—a statement that further heightened regional tensions.

Why Kurdistan Bears the Cost

The Kurdistan Region finds itself exposed for several reasons:

Strategic Geography

Bordering Iran, Syria, Turkey, and federal Iraq, the region occupies one of the Middle East's most sensitive geopolitical corridors.

Presence of Coalition Forces

Coalition military facilities around Erbil remain important logistical hubs for U.S.-led operations.

Iranian Kurdish Opposition Groups

Several Iranian Kurdish organizations continue to operate from areas within the Kurdistan Region despite security agreements between Baghdad and Tehran.

Limited Air Defense

Unlike sovereign states, the Kurdistan Region lacks an independent integrated air defense system capable of protecting its airspace against sustained missile and drone attacks.

Strategic Implications

The latest escalation reveals several broader geopolitical trends:

• The U.S.-Iran confrontation increasingly extends beyond traditional battlefields, affecting neighboring territories such as Iraqi Kurdistan.
• Proxy warfare is becoming increasingly intertwined with direct state-to-state military action, blurring long-standing distinctions.
• The Kurdistan Region's strategic geography continues to expose it to conflicts largely beyond its control.
• Baghdad's balancing strategy between Washington and Tehran faces growing pressure as regional polarization deepens.
• Civilian infrastructure and economic stability in the Kurdistan Region remain vulnerable as long as regional tensions persist.

Outlook

The recent attacks demonstrate that neutrality alone may no longer shield the Kurdistan Region from the consequences of wider regional conflicts. As Tehran seeks to deter perceived threats and Washington maintains its military presence in Iraq, Kurdistan risks becoming an increasingly important arena in the broader U.S.-Iran strategic competition.

Absent a durable diplomatic understanding between Baghdad, Erbil, Tehran, and Washington, the region is likely to remain exposed to recurring missile and drone attacks that threaten not only military facilities but also civilian life, critical infrastructure, and economic stability.

Caught Between Washington and Tehran: Why Iraqi Kurdistan Has Become the First Casualty of the New Middle East War

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