By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis 

As China deepens its support for Russia during the Ukraine war, a quieter but potentially more consequential exchange is unfolding—one that could reshape the military balance in Asia and alter the future of a Taiwan conflict.

China's support for Russia extends beyond diplomacy. Beijing is reportedly gaining battlefield experience, advanced military technology, and strategic intelligence that could reshape the balance of power over Taiwan.

What China Is Really Seeking From Russia?

Much of the international debate surrounding the Russia–Ukraine war has focused on Moscow's increasing dependence on Beijing. Analysts have extensively examined how Russia has benefited from China's diplomatic backing, expanding trade, and access to dual-use technologies despite Western sanctions.

Yet a more important question is beginning to emerge:

What is China gaining from Russia in return?

According to an in-depth analysis by The Economist, Beijing's growing support for Moscow is not simply an act of geopolitical solidarity. Instead, it represents a calculated strategic investment designed to accelerate China's military modernization, gather invaluable battlefield experience, and prepare for future confrontations—most notably a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Because of the importance of The Economist's analysis and the fact that the original article is both subscription-based and published in English, I have summarized and expanded upon its key arguments here to make them more accessible for Kurdish readers while adding broader geopolitical context.

China's Support for Russia Goes Beyond Economics

Western governments have expressed concern for years over China's continued assistance to Russia during the Ukraine war.

Particular attention has focused on Chinese exports of dual-use technologies—civilian products that can also serve military purposes—including engines, electronic components, microchips, machine tools, and industrial equipment used in the production of Russian missiles, drones, and military hardware.

Although Beijing insists it is not supplying lethal weapons directly, Western officials argue these technologies have significantly strengthened Russia's defence industry, helping Moscow sustain a prolonged war despite sweeping Western sanctions.

A Strategic Exchange Hidden Behind the Headlines

However, recent intelligence assessments have shifted attention toward the other side of this relationship.

According to Western intelligence reports, China is not merely providing economic and technological support—it is reportedly receiving something even more valuable from Russia in return:

• Battlefield experience
• Operational military intelligence
• Lessons learned from modern warfare
• Access to advanced Russian military technologies

This exchange has raised growing concern in Washington and European capitals because it could significantly enhance China's military capabilities before any future confrontation in the Indo-Pacific.

For Beijing, the Ukraine war has effectively become a vast laboratory for observing modern warfare without directly participating in it.

China Is Learning From Russia's Battlefield Experience

The relationship has moved well beyond diplomatic declarations.

Since 2024, reports indicate that Chinese military personnel have participated in practical drone warfare and urban combat training at a Russian military base near Volgograd, home to Russia's Eighth Guards Combined Arms Army.

This formation has played a central role in Moscow's operations in eastern Ukraine, providing China with rare exposure to real battlefield tactics developed under combat conditions.

For China, which has not fought a major war since its brief conflict with Vietnam in 1979, such experience is exceptionally valuable.

Modern warfare has changed dramatically over the past four decades.

The widespread use of drones, electronic warfare, precision-guided munitions, cyber operations, and integrated battlefield intelligence has transformed military doctrine worldwide.

By observing Russia's successes—and perhaps even more importantly, its mistakes—China can accelerate its own military learning curve without paying the costs of actual combat.

Access to Military Technologies Previously Off Limits

Another important aspect of Sino-Russian cooperation reportedly involves military technology transfers.

According to Western officials, China has become influential enough to request technologies that Moscow had historically been reluctant to share.

Areas of concern reportedly include:

• Advanced air defence systems
• Missile technologies
• Electronic warfare capabilities
• Submarine quieting technologies
• Intelligence gathered from combat against Western weapons

One area attracting particular attention is China's effort to improve the stealth capabilities of its next-generation nuclear submarines.

Reducing underwater acoustic signatures remains one of the greatest challenges facing China's navy.

Russian expertise in this field could significantly improve Beijing's ability to operate undetected in the Pacific.

Preparing for a Taiwan Contingency

Many Western analysts believe these developments are closely linked to China's long-term preparations for a possible conflict over Taiwan.

A future Taiwan scenario would likely depend heavily on:

• Naval superiority
• Air defence integration
• Drone operations
• Missile warfare
• Undersea warfare
• Electronic warfare

The battlefield lessons Russia is accumulating in Ukraine—particularly regarding NATO weapons systems—could provide China with insights that would otherwise take decades to acquire independently.

US officials reportedly believe Beijing is especially interested in Russian experience confronting Western weapons such as the HIMARS rocket system, which Taiwan also operates.

Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of these systems could prove valuable in any future military planning.

Joint Military Exercises Reflect Changing Priorities

Military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing has become increasingly visible.

On July 6, China demonstrated its growing nuclear ambitions by conducting what reports described as the first public launch test of an intercontinental ballistic missile from one of its ballistic missile submarines.

Shortly afterwards, China and Russia conducted extensive joint naval exercises focusing on:

• Submarine operations
• Anti-submarine warfare
• Drone warfare
• Counter-drone technologies
• Integrated naval-air operations

Russian Deputy Admiral Sergei Sinko reportedly described parts of the exercise as direct testing of "unmanned systems warfare scenarios."

Notably, this marked the first major Sino-Russian naval exercise primarily centred on drone warfare and counter-drone operations—a reflection of how rapidly unmanned systems have become central to modern military strategy.

Russian Submarines Offer Valuable Lessons

Chinese analysts also appear particularly interested in Russian submarine technology.

Retired Chinese naval officer Chang Junxia reportedly noted that Russia's newest diesel-electric submarines—capable of operating almost silently while running on battery power—offer valuable opportunities for Chinese forces to improve anti-submarine detection and tracking capabilities.

Although Russia possesses a relatively small submarine fleet compared to NATO, decades of investment in underwater warfare have left Moscow with considerable technical expertise.

For China, access to these lessons may prove more valuable than simply acquiring hardware.

A Partnership Without a Formal Alliance

Despite growing military cooperation, Russia and China have stopped short of forming a formal military alliance.

There is currently no mutual defence treaty comparable to NATO's Article 5 commitments.

Likewise, just as China has avoided direct military involvement in Ukraine, Russia would not necessarily intervene directly in a Taiwan conflict.

Nevertheless, strategic cooperation continues expanding through:

• Intelligence sharing
• Joint exercises
• Technology exchanges
• Defence-industrial cooperation
• Operational lessons from active combat

This increasingly pragmatic partnership enables both countries to strengthen their military capabilities while maintaining strategic flexibility.

Strategic Analysis: The Real Value of the Ukraine War for China

One of the less-discussed consequences of the Ukraine war is that it has become an unprecedented military classroom for China.

Rather than entering a costly conflict itself, Beijing can observe:

• NATO military doctrine in practice
• Western logistics and sanctions responses
• Drone warfare evolution
• Electronic warfare techniques
• Battlefield innovation
• Economic resilience during prolonged conflict

From Beijing's perspective, these lessons could prove invaluable when shaping future military planning.

If even a portion of Russia's combat experience is successfully transferred into China's armed forces, the balance of power in East Asia could gradually shift.

For the United States and its allies, this possibility represents one of the most significant long-term geopolitical consequences of the Ukraine war.

The conflict is therefore no longer solely about Europe's security.

It has increasingly become a catalyst accelerating strategic competition across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific, linking the battlefields of eastern Ukraine with the future security architecture surrounding Taiwan.

Source

The Economist (analysis summarized and expanded with additional geopolitical context).

What Do You Think?

Is China's partnership with Russia primarily about supporting Moscow, or is Beijing using the Ukraine war as a strategic opportunity to prepare for future challenges such as Taiwan? Share your perspective in the comments below.

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