Iraq’s New Government Is a Temporary Truce, Not a Strategic Settlement

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  Baghdad’s latest cabinet formation reveals a state still trapped between militia power, oil dependency, Kurdish fragmentation, and the geopolitical collision between Washington and Tehran. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026 — Kurdish Policy Analysis After six months of political paralysis, Iraq finally has a government. Yet the formation of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s cabinet may say less about political stabilization than about the inability of Iraq’s competing factions to sustain prolonged deadlock. The parliamentary approval of Zaidi’s government this week ended one of the country’s longest post-election crises in recent years. But the structure of the new cabinet — incomplete, contested, and heavily shaped by factional bargaining — reveals an Iraqi state still fundamentally unable to resolve its core strategic contradictions. The most important fact about Iraq’s new government is not that it was formed. It is that it emerged without resolving the dis...
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UPDATE, THE HORMUZ SITUATION JUST HIT A NEW LEVEL:


Kurdish Policy Analysis

The last 12 hours changed everything. – Iran OPENED the Strait of Hormuz this morning under ceasefire — two oil tankers passed through safely – Israel launched 100+ strikes on Lebanon HOURS later — the biggest attack since the war began — 112 killed in one strike – Iran RE-CLOSED the Strait of Hormuz — all tanker traffic STOPPED – Iran is "mulling withdrawal from the ceasefire entirely" — Al Jazeera confirmed – Iranian armed forces are now IDENTIFYING TARGETS inside Israel — Shafaq News – Oil had plunged 19% this morning on ceasefire news — biggest drop since 2020 — now uncertainty is BACK – Pete Hegseth said "Iran begged for ceasefire" — Iran is now preparing to WALK AWAY from it – 150+ vessels stranded at peak of earlier closure — traffic collapsed from 150/day to fewer than 20 – California gas at $6/gallon. Philippines on 4-day work week. Japan releasing emergency reserves. The ceasefire lasted 12 hours. The Strait that carries 20% of the world's oil is closed again. No signs of reopening. I'll keep you updated. Turn on Kurdish Policy Analysis.

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