Iraq’s New Government Is a Temporary Truce, Not a Strategic Settlement

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  Baghdad’s latest cabinet formation reveals a state still trapped between militia power, oil dependency, Kurdish fragmentation, and the geopolitical collision between Washington and Tehran. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026 — Kurdish Policy Analysis After six months of political paralysis, Iraq finally has a government. Yet the formation of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s cabinet may say less about political stabilization than about the inability of Iraq’s competing factions to sustain prolonged deadlock. The parliamentary approval of Zaidi’s government this week ended one of the country’s longest post-election crises in recent years. But the structure of the new cabinet — incomplete, contested, and heavily shaped by factional bargaining — reveals an Iraqi state still fundamentally unable to resolve its core strategic contradictions. The most important fact about Iraq’s new government is not that it was formed. It is that it emerged without resolving the dis...
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Iran’s war against regional states: UAE bore the brunt, Iraqi Kurdistan still under fire (2026)

A US–Iran ceasefire has largely held since April 8, but Iran-linked drone and missile attacks continue in Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan after a massive multi-state campaign targeting Gulf Arab states, raising concerns over sustained proxy warfare.

Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, Sulaimani, Iraq, 19 April, Kurdish Policy Analysis -- A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has largely held since April 8, halting large-scale missile and drone barrages across the Middle East. However, continued strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan suggest that while direct escalation has paused, the underlying proxy conflict remains active.

The de-escalation follows one of the most extensive coordinated aerial campaigns in recent years, involving Iran and allied militia networks targeting nine Arab states across the region.

Largest Wave of Coordinated Aerial Attacks in Recent Years

Between late February and early April, Iran-linked forces launched thousands of drones and missiles across:

  • Saudi Arabia
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Kuwait
  • Qatar
  • Bahrain
  • Jordan
  • Iraq
  • Syria
  • Oman

The United Arab Emirates was the most heavily targeted, facing an estimated 2,819 aerial systems, including drones and missiles combined.

Kuwait followed with 1,221 systems, while Saudi Arabia absorbed around 680, predominantly drone-based attacks.

Qatar recorded 267 systems, Jordan 291, and Bahrain intercepted more than 700 incoming threats, underscoring the scale of the regional air defense burden.

Iraq, Syria, and Oman did not publicly release full aggregated figures.

Strategic Infrastructure as Primary Targets

The campaign demonstrated a consistent targeting pattern focused on military bases, energy infrastructure, and logistics hubs.

In Saudi Arabia, strikes concentrated on oil infrastructure in the Eastern Province, including Shaybah and Ras Tanura, alongside military sites such as Prince Sultan Air Base.

Kuwait reported damage to Kuwait International Airport, Ali al Salem Air Base (which hosts US forces), and major refinery infrastructure.

Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base—the largest US military installation in the Middle East—was repeatedly targeted.

Bahrain faced strikes on naval facilities, energy infrastructure, ports, and telecommunications systems.

Jordan, Syria, and Oman: Peripheral but Strategic Fronts

Jordan’s attacks focused heavily on Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base, a key hub for US and European forces, with repeated missile incidents reported near the facility.

In Syria, strikes targeted US-linked bases including Tanf and Kharab al Jir before the final US withdrawal from its last remaining base on April 15.

Oman experienced limited but notable attacks on maritime infrastructure, including Duqm and Salalah ports, with some incidents resulting in casualties among foreign workers.

Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan: The Most Persistent Front

Iraq remained one of the most active theaters of the conflict, with repeated strikes on:

  • US Embassy in Baghdad
  • Ain al Asad Air Base
  • Balad Air Base
  • Camp Taji
  • Major southern oil fields

In Iraqi Kurdistan, attacks concentrated on:

  • Erbil International Airport
  • US Consulate in Erbil
  • Peshmerga and Kurdish security bases
  • Iranian Kurdish opposition camps

Both Iran-linked militias and direct Iranian operations were reported, particularly against opposition groups.

Post-Ceasefire Strikes Continue in Iraqi Kurdistan

Despite the April 8 ceasefire, attacks have persisted:

  • April 9–10: Drone activity and explosions reported in Erbil
  • April 14: Intercepted drones and strikes on camps in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah
  • April 15–16: Missile and drone attacks hit PDKI, Komala, and other opposition sites
  • April 17: Renewed strikes killed civilians and Peshmerga fighters in Erbil Governorate

The continuation of attacks suggests that while state-to-state escalation has paused, proxy warfare remains active and decentralized.

Analysis: A Contained War, Not an Ended Conflict

The ceasefire has reduced direct US–Iran escalation risk, but the persistence of strikes in Iraq highlights a broader reality: Iran’s regional network of allied militias continues to operate independently across multiple fronts.

Rather than a full de-escalation, the region is now experiencing a contained but ongoing shadow conflict, where high-intensity attacks have decreased but localized warfare persists.

#USIran #MiddleEast #Iraq #Kurdistan #Geopolitics #DroneWarfare #MissileAttacks #IranProxy #SecurityAnalysis #KurdishPolicyAnalysis



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