Kurdish Policy Analysis

From preventive war and nuclear deterrence to self-defense and regime change, the growing confrontation between the United States and Iran revives a 1,600-year-old philosophical debate: when does war become morally legitimate?

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 12 May 2026 -- For decades, tensions between the United States and Iran have revolved around sanctions, proxy conflicts, nuclear fears, assassinations, cyber warfare, and regional power struggles. Yet beneath the military calculations and geopolitical headlines lies a far older and more dangerous question:

Can a war be morally justified before an actual existential attack occurs?

Can the US war against Iran be morally justified under Just War Theory? A deep geopolitical and philosophical analysis of self-defense, preventive war, deterrence, and the ethics of modern conflict. 

This is not merely a strategic debate. It is one of the oldest philosophical dilemmas in human civilization — a question explored by theologians, empires, generals, and philosophers for more than 1,500 years.

The modern US–Iran confrontation has revived the core principles of “Just War Theory,” the philosophical framework associated with Augustine of Hippo and Thomas Aquinas. Their theories sought to answer a timeless problem: under what conditions can war ever become morally legitimate?

The Most Dangerous Question in Modern Geopolitics

The central philosophical issue surrounding the US–Iran conflict is deceptively simple:

Can a nation morally justify war in order to prevent a future threat that has not yet happened?

This question defines modern preventive warfare. Supporters of military action argue that waiting for a nuclear-capable adversary to strike first may be suicidal. Critics argue that launching war based on hypothetical future dangers destroys the moral distinction between defense and aggression.

This tension has shaped nearly every major Middle Eastern conflict of the 21st century. Unlike traditional wars fought after invasions or territorial attacks, modern geopolitical conflicts are increasingly driven by fears of what might happen:

• possible nuclear proliferation
• possible regional domination
• possible attacks on allies
• possible destabilization of global energy markets
• possible future escalation

In this sense, the US–Iran confrontation is not simply a military conflict. It is a war of anticipation.

What Just War Theory Actually Says

Contrary to popular belief, classical Just War Theory does not say that all wars are automatically immoral. Instead, it proposes strict conditions under which war may become ethically permissible.

The six core principles are:

1. Just Cause

The clearest justification is self-defense against aggression. Historically, philosophers also included the defense of allies or protection of innocent populations.

2. Legitimate Authority

War must be declared by a recognized political authority rather than militias or private actors.

3. Right Intention

The purpose of war must be peace and justice rather than conquest, revenge, or domination.

4. Last Resort

All realistic diplomatic and peaceful options must have been seriously attempted before military force is used.

5. Proportionality

The destruction caused by war must not outweigh the good it aims to achieve.

6. Reasonable Chance of Success

Launching a hopeless war that only guarantees mass suffering is considered morally illegitimate.

These principles later influenced modern international law following World War II and the creation of the United Nations.

Does the US–Iran Conflict Meet These Conditions?

This is where philosophy collides directly with geopolitics.

Just Cause: The Core Dispute

Washington argues that military pressure against Iran is fundamentally defensive:

• preventing nuclear weaponization
• protecting US forces and allies
• securing maritime routes
• deterring missile and drone attacks

Critics counter that preventive war based on future capability rather than imminent attack fails the moral standard of self-defense.

This distinction is crucial. Just War Theory traditionally permits defense against an immediate threat — not necessarily against a hypothetical future danger.

The philosophical dilemma becomes: How certain must a threat be before killing becomes morally justified?

The Problem of “Last Resort”

One of the weakest areas in the moral justification for modern wars is often the principle of last resort. Supporters of military action argue:

• diplomacy repeatedly failed
• sanctions did not stop escalation
• containment strategies weakened over time

Critics argue:

• negotiations remained possible
• inspections and deterrence could continue
• escalation occurred before peaceful mechanisms were exhausted

This is why preventive wars remain among the most controversial actions in international politics.

Nuclear Deterrence and the Philosophy of Fear

Perhaps the deepest paradox in the US–Iran confrontation is the logic of deterrence itself. Modern nuclear strategy assumes peace can be maintained through fear:

• fear of retaliation
• fear of annihilation
• fear of uncontrollable escalation

Supporters claim deterrence prevents catastrophic wars. Critics argue it merely postpones catastrophe while trapping humanity inside a permanent psychological state of brinkmanship. The result is a geopolitical gray zone:

• sanctions
• cyberattacks
• proxy warfare
• covert operations
• targeted assassinations
• military buildups

Technically, this is not total war. But neither is it true peace.

The Ancient Question That Still Haunts the Modern World

The US–Iran confrontation reveals a deeper truth about modern geopolitics:

Most contemporary wars are no longer fought over what has happened — but over what leaders fear could happen.

This changes the moral structure of warfare entirely. Classical wars often followed invasions or territorial aggression. Modern strategic conflicts increasingly revolve around prediction, probability, intelligence assessments, and future capability. That creates an unprecedented philosophical danger:

• If future threats justify war, almost any war can be rationalized.
• But if states must always wait for direct attack, deterrence may fail catastrophically.

This is the paradox at the heart of 21st-century security doctrine.

Final Analysis

The US–Iran conflict does not produce easy moral answers. From one perspective, the logic of deterrence and self-defense may justify military pressure against a hostile regional power with expanding missile and nuclear capabilities. From another perspective, preventive war risks collapsing the distinction between defense and aggression — the very distinction Just War Theory was created to preserve.

Ultimately, the deepest philosophical question remains:

Can humanity create security through the threat of annihilation without eventually becoming consumed by that threat itself?

That question may define not only the future of US–Iran relations, but the future of modern civilization itself.

For more details regarding Just War Theory and Interventionism in US Foreign Policy read my PhD thesis on the legality and Morality of US War against Iraq and the regime change:

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