The Thucydides Trap Returns: Did the Trump–Xi Summit Push the US and China Closer to Conflict or Cooperation?

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After years of escalating tensions, tariffs, military rivalry, and technological warfare, the Trump–Xi summit has revived one of geopolitics’ most dangerous questions: can a rising China and a dominant United States avoid the Thucydides Trap—or is confrontation becoming inevitable? By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026 — Kurdish Policy Analysis How are the United States and China redefining their relationship? "We don't have permanent allies and we don't have permanent enemies, only our interests are permanent, and we have to follow them." – Henry John Temple. The root of the current Strait of Hormuz tensions is not only about shipping routes or oil prices, but also about the final collapse of the historical US concept towards Beijing. However, the 2025 National Security Strategy, released by the White House in November, says this was a historic mistake because China used the assets it accumulated to strengthen itself and compete with the West, not to...
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Iran’s Shadow War on Kurdistan: 450 Attacks That Threaten Civilians, Diplomats, and Regional Stability

SMOKE RISES from the site of a drone crash on the outskirts of Erbil, Iraq, March 12, 2026. (photo credit: REUTERS/KHALID AL-MOUSILY)

 

Iran‑Backed Militias Escalate Strikes on Iraq’s Kurdistan, Raising Regional Tensions

ERBIL, Iraq

Kurdish Policy Analysis

 — Iran‑aligned militia forces have launched over 450 attacks on the autonomous Kurdistan Region since the outbreak of the Iran war, using drones and rockets in a sustained campaign that has killed at least 14 people and wounded dozens more, local media and officials said on Thursday.

The strikes, occurring almost daily, have hit military and civilian infrastructure, including hotels, urban neighborhoods, and diplomatic sites, as well as U.S. facilities and forces stationed in northern Iraq’s Erbil. Local Kurdish and Iraqi sources report residential areas have also been struck, highlighting the expanding geographic and tactical scope of the campaign.

Tehran’s use of Iraqi militia proxies, some formally integrated into Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, underscores a complex dynamic in which Baghdad is reluctant or unable to restrain armed groups loyal to Iran. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani has engaged with regional partners but stopped short of condemning the militias or curbing their actions.

The United Arab Emirates, along with other Gulf states and Turkey, have publicly condemned attacks targeting Kurdish and allied forces, marking growing international concern over Iran’s proxy strategy. Analysts say the repeated strikes deepen instability in northern Iraq and highlight Tehran’s broader efforts to project influence without direct conventional engagement. 

Iran uses non‑state militias as force multipliers rather than deploying regular forces directly. This reflects a mental model of asymmetric engagement — leveraging aligned groups so Tehran can project power while reducing direct political accountability. Insight: This isn’t merely coercion — it’s statecraft: Iran embeds influence in Iraq’s security apparatus to shape regional dynamics in its favor.

Iraq’s Prime Minister refuses to rein in militias — showing how internal political calculus and factional power shape foreign policy. The militias have dual status — part of the government (Popular Mobilization Forces) yet loyal to Iran, creating plausible deniability and political buffer. This duality helps Tehran maintain influence while insulating Baghdad from direct blame — a nuanced political maneuver often overlooked.

Iraqi Sovereignty Is Eroding from Within: Iraq’s inability (or unwillingness) to curb militias shows weakness in state institutions — militias sometimes act with more autonomy than Baghdad itself. This could have long‑term implications for Iraq’s internal stability.

Kurdish Strategy & Calculus: Kurdistan’s attempts to stay neutral shows a risk‑minimization posture — but repeated attacks may force a strategic pivot, potentially drawing them closer to US protection or regional alliances.

#Iran #Iraq #Kurdistan #Militias #MiddleEastConflict #ProxyWarfare #RegionalSecurity #USForces


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