Kurdish Policy Analysis

As Baghdad, Erbil, and U.S. forces tread carefully, militias allied with Tehran escalate attacks, fearing the collapse of Iranian influence in Iraq. Iraqis allied to Iran are now extremely anxious about their political and security future if Tehran were to fall, For that reason, they are seeking a pre-emptive blow that may preserve something of their political future.

ERBIL (Kurdish Policy Analysis) – Iran‑aligned armed groups in Iraq have escalated attacks against Kurdish forces, U.S. installations and government targets in what analysts describe as a pre‑emptive campaign to secure their political future amid fears of Tehran’s weakening position, raising tensions across the country’s fragile political and security landscape.

Militias with close ties to Tehran – including factions within the state‑affiliated Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) such as Kataeb al‑Nujaba and Iraq’s Hezbollah – have carried out more than 1,000 attacks across Iraqi territory in recent weeks, according to security monitors, striking diplomatic missions, Peshmerga positions in the Kurdistan Region and U.S. facilities in Baghdad and Erbil.

“This is not simply a series of isolated incidents,” said a regional analyst. “These groups are acting to shape both the outcome of the broader Iran‑U.S.‑Israel confrontation and their own place in Iraq’s future.”

Iraqis closely allied to Iran are said to be increasingly anxious about their political and security future if Tehran were to fall, driving what Baghdad observers describe as a pre‑emptive effort to preserve influence and leverage within Iraq’s political order.

The militias’ offensive has put Baghdad under acute strain. The Iraqi government has repeatedly insisted it is not a party to the war between Iran and U.S.‑Israel forces, yet many of the armed factions carrying out operations are nominally part of the PMF, a state‑sanctioned umbrella force that operates with broad autonomy from central command.

Officials in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government have publicly condemned the violence while cautioning against an outright confrontation, asserting that time and diplomacy remain preferable to direct conflict. “For their part, the official Iraqi government, the Kurdistan Region, and the U.S. are all avoiding a direct clash for now because they believe time is on their side,” al‑Mashhadani said.

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has been targeted repeatedly, and U.S. military bases in Iraq have come under rocket and drone fire, part of what U.S. officials describe as an increasingly hostile environment that blurs the line between legitimate security operations and proxy warfare.

The turmoil comes amid broader regional pressures. Iraqi militias have been blamed for hundreds of attacks against U.S. forces in recent months, prompting retaliatory strikes from U.S. and allied aircraft. Analysts say Tehran’s strategy hinges on leveraging these militias to project influence beyond its borders, even as it reckons with heightened military pressure at home.

Political blocs in Baghdad allied with Iran have substantial representation in parliament and key ministries, complicating efforts to rein in militant actions. At the same time, figures within the Iraqi government and Kurdish leadership stress the need to uphold state sovereignty and limit the influence of outside powers in Iraqi affairs.

For now, Iraq teeters on a tightrope, caught between competing pressures from Tehran, Washington and the autonomous Kurdish region, with the potential for escalation lingering as factions entrench their positions ahead of what could be a decisive phase in both Iraq’s domestic politics and the wider Middle East confrontation. 

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