Kurdish Policy Analysis

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026— Kurdish Policy Analysis

"We don't have permanent allies and we don't have permanent enemies, only our interests are permanent, and we have to follow them." – Henry John Temple.

The root of the current Strait of Hormuz tensions is not only about shipping routes or oil prices, but also about the final collapse of the historical US concept towards Beijing. However, the 2025 National Security Strategy, released by the White House in November, says this was a historic mistake because China used the assets it accumulated to strengthen itself and compete with the West, not to become their partner.

For many years, the United States alone maintained maritime security; The fifth US ship in Manama, Bahrain, worked only to keep oil transported safely in the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of where it went. In fact, China's economic growth was based on US-protected free navigation Our warriors?" Therefore, this is a shift from an "open global system" policy to a policy of "narrow national interests" and the creation of a US counterfront towards China.

The reason for China's resumption of the Siberia Force 2 project in September 2025 was that after the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025, there were rumors in US decision-making centers that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed during the war.

In November 2025, the White House said, "The United States will always have an interest in keeping Gulf energy out of the enemy's hands, keeping the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea open, and keeping Israel safe.

For the Chinese, this was a sign of accelerating the Russian gas pipeline project and accumulating huge amounts of oil, gas and food, much more than they needed. China knew the US might attack Hormuz.

China has used Iran as its "frontline" for many years because of its geographical location and natural resources. China has provided Iran with missile technology, drones (especially machines and witness systems), and surveillance systems and facial recognition software Without China's technology chain, Hudson notes, Iran's drone industry would collapse.

Looking back, the US war against Iran is not just about regime change or nuclear projects, but about restoring relations with China. At the beginning of the war, the United States allowed countries to buy oil from Russia Not in opening the Strait of Hormuz, because this is a huge pressure on China.

According to the Washington Post, Thailand's foreign minister has complained that the United States will not help rescue Thai ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz unless Thailand buys oil and gas from the United States Great for China not being able to save its own ships and showing that it is still totally dependent on the US which it described as a “power towards weakness”.

"China has agreed not to give weapons to Iran... President Xi will give me a big hug when I go there in a few days," Trump joked on Twitter. The stranded Hormuz ships will be part of the table between Washington and Beijing.

Now everyone knows that China is in a very difficult situation, and does not want to anger Washington, because the Xi Jinping-Trump summit is scheduled to "make a new deal", so China has begun to empty its oil reserves.

The Strait of Hormuz is where globalization dies. The United States doesn't need to physically close the strait, it just needs to “stop protecting it.” When “free US insurance” ends, China remains dumbfounded by energy costs oil tankers.

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