Kurdish Policy Analysis

Erbil, Iraq, March 27, 2026

Kurdish Policy Analysis

Efforts by Western policymakers to identify allies inside Iran may be based on flawed assumptions, according to a recent analysis by the Lawfare, which argues that influence in the country operates in less visible and more complex ways than commonly understood.

The report challenges the long-standing focus on exiled opposition groups and overtly pro-Western actors, suggesting these figures often lack credibility inside Iran and have limited ability to shape internal outcomes.

Instead, it points to domestically rooted individuals and networks—many operating within state institutions or broader society—as more consequential, even if they are not publicly aligned with foreign governments.

“Visible alignment with external powers can undermine local legitimacy,” the analysis indicates, noting that such perceptions can weaken rather than strengthen potential partners.

The findings also question the effectiveness of sustained economic and political pressure. While sanctions are intended to force policy changes, they can have the unintended effect of reinforcing internal cohesion among Iran’s leadership, particularly among hardline factions.

Analysts say Iranian decision-makers often view external pressure as manageable, using it to justify consolidation of authority and suppress dissent.

The report further disputes the notion that Iran functions as a unified actor. Instead, it describes a system marked by competing political, military and economic centers of power, each with differing priorities and levels of pragmatism.

This fragmentation, it argues, presents opportunities for influence that broad, undifferentiated strategies tend to overlook.

“Treating Iran as a monolith risks missing internal dynamics that shape decision-making,” the analysis suggests.

Another key finding is the importance of legitimacy in determining influence inside the country. Policies perceived as externally imposed can damage the standing of local actors, limiting their effectiveness and narrowing space for reform.

At the same time, the report highlights instances where Iran has demonstrated pragmatic behavior, including cooperation with rivals when interests align, particularly in regional security contexts.

Such examples suggest that Tehran’s approach is not purely ideological but can be flexible under certain conditions.

Overall, the analysis concludes that Iran’s future will be shaped primarily by internal political and social dynamics, with external actors playing a more indirect role.

For policymakers, this implies a shift away from attempts to engineer outcomes from outside the country, toward strategies that account for internal legitimacy, competition and incentives.

The report’s central message: influence in Iran depends less on identifying the right allies, and more on understanding how power and credibility function inside the country itself.

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