Three Clocks Are Now Ticking Over the Strait of Hormuz

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Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj  Three clocks are now ticking over the Strait of Hormuz, and the interaction among them may determine whether the current pressure on Iran can be sustained long enough to produce an acceptable outcome. Three clocks are shaping the Hormuz crisis: energy flows, market resilience, and Washington’s political time. During the Surge in Iraq, policymakers and military planners often spoke about two clocks: the Baghdad clock and the Washington clock. Progress on the ground mattered enormously, but so did whether that progress came quickly enough to preserve political support in the United States. The success of the Surge ultimately put time back on the Washington clock because improvements on the ground began to change the political calculation surrounding the conflict. Something similar is happening now, but with three clocks operating simultaneously around the Strait of Hormuz. The first is the operational clock. It measures how much non-Iranian Gulf oil and LNG c...
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UAE Slams Iran with Billions in Frozen Assets and Boots Iranian Residents

    UAE cracks down on Iran’s financial lifeline in Dubai — visas canceled, assets frozen, networks dismantled. A decades-old sanctions loophole is collapsing in real time.


Sulaimanyah, March 29 Kurdish Policy Analysis— The United Arab Emirates has begun canceling residency visas for Iranian nationals stranded outside the country, including holders of long-term “golden visas,” in a sweeping move that is disrupting decades-old financial and commercial ties with Iran, according to regional media and local sources.

The measures, which expanded on March 27, have affected Iranians with property holdings and active businesses in Dubai, a hub long viewed as a critical conduit for Tehran’s access to global markets despite Western sanctions.

The clampdown has also extended beyond visas. Iranian schools in Dubai have reportedly closed, the Iranian hospital has ceased operations, and consular services have been reduced to minimal staffing levels. Some stranded nationals are now seeking repatriation through third countries, including Afghanistan.

For years, Dubai functioned as a key financial back channel for Iran, particularly after Tehran was cut off from the SWIFT system. Iranian-linked entities used free zones, exchange houses, and shell companies—often tied to residency visa holders—to move funds and sustain trade flows.

Analysts say the latest Emirati measures signal a decisive break from that approach. Authorities are now freezing assets and tightening oversight, effectively dismantling networks that had allowed Iran to mitigate the impact of sanctions for decades.

The shift comes amid heightened regional tensions and follows what officials describe as a surge in missile and drone threats targeting the UAE since late February.

While the crackdown appears driven by security considerations, it may accelerate broader structural changes in Iran’s financial strategy. Tehran has increasingly explored alternatives to dollar-based systems, including settlements in Chinese yuan via the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), reducing reliance on traditional banking channels.

The evolving strategy is also tied to Iran’s geographic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, where analysts say Tehran could exert influence over regional trade routes.

The UAE’s actions mark one of the most significant disruptions to Iran’s informal financial networks in recent decades, raising questions about the future of cross-border commerce and the balance of economic power in the Middle East.

#UAE #Iran #Sanctions #Dubai #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Finance #SWIFT #CIPS #Hormuz


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